Note: this is just a fun side project. I was not able to do extensive QA, so please let me know if you notice any errors or irregularities.
Note 2: North Dakota is not included because they are unable to field a 16 player bracket and my flimsy code can not handle that. Similarly, Nova Scotia has a 4-way tie for the 16th position. Until there is an even 16 players I am unable to include them.
1/13/2023 Update: due to a bug, the previously published results showed the odds for a best-of-one series instead of a best-of-seven. The new results should be correct.
1/19/2023 Update: I reran simulations with a fresh pull of ratings from matchplay. Results may have shifted. Also, you can now view player-vs-player predictions by clicking on player names on state result tables.


How these predictions are made

Overall

2022 IFPA NACS Favorites
Chances of winning state finals
state Player (Seed) MP Rating WIN CHANCE
alabama
Braden Gentry (3)
Auburn, AL
1772 ± 65 40%
alberta
Mike Tzanakos (2)
Calgary, AB
1807 ± 61 36%
arizona
Will McKinney (2)
Phoenix, AZ
1817 ± 63 26%
arkansas
Mike Malone (2)
Fayetteville, AR
1709 ± 65 25%
british columbia
Robert Gagno (1)
Burnaby, BC
1811 ± 74 31%
california
Jim Belsito (5)
Murrieta, CA
1864 ± 84 27%
colorado
Walt Wood (1)
Englewood, CO
1924 ± 69 70%
connecticut
Tyler Aas (1)
Vernon, CT
1685 ± 63 35%
delaware
Jason Zahler (1)
Parts Unknown, NJ
1881 ± 73 72%
district of columbia
David Barber (3)
Manassas, VA
1783 ± 90 60%
florida
Eric Stone (1)
Fort Myers, FL
1927 ± 76 75%
georgia
Dalton Ely (1)
Rockmart, GA
1828 ± 69 60%
idaho
Xyren Silvers (5)
Boise, ID
1818 ± 73 62%
illinois
Raymond Davidson (3)
Elk Grove Village, IL
1829 ± 57 41%
indiana
Tommy Skinner (19)
Lafayette, IN
1811 ± 65 24%
iowa
Cody McQuiston (1)
Parts Unknown, IA
1721 ± 84 41%
kansas
Eric German (6)
Kansas City, MO
1835 ± 86 54%
kentucky
Jesse Baker (8)
Cincinnati, OH
1817 ± 63 35%
Louisiana
Nick Mueller (1)
Parts Unknown, FL
1819 ± 100 88%
maine
Joey Harwood (4)
Portland, ME
1692 ± 106 30%
manitoba
Jack Tadman (3)
Winnipeg, MB
1802 ± 69 35%
maryland
Dave Hubbard (2)
Cooksville, MD
1802 ± 71 33%
massachusetts
Bowen Kerins (2)
Salem, MA
1824 ± 69 64%
michigan
Jared August (8)
West Bloomfield Township, MI
1847 ± 63 42%
minnesota
Mark Larson (4)
Parts Unknown, Earth
1796 ± 67 26%
mississippi
Steve Dobbins (1)
Corinth, MS
1799 ± 88 76%
missouri
John Miller MO (2)
St. Louis, MO
1830 ± 59 39%
nebraska
Tiler Hall (4)
Omaha, NE
1792 ± 100 54%
nevada
Steve Strom (4)
Las Vegas, NV
1727 ± 71 19%
new brunswick
Pat Herrington (1)
Fredericton, NB
1770 ± 94 66%
new hampshire
Brian O'Neill NH (1)
Portsmouth, NH
1765 ± 65 59%
new jersey
Anthony Lambos Jr (1)
Hamburg, NJ
1786 ± 57 60%
new mexico
Ben Cressy (2)
Albuquerque, NM
1850 ± 104 73%
new york
Sean Grant (17)
New York, NY
1800 ± 98 26%
north carolina
Drew Cedolia (2)
Greensboro, NC
1790 ± 69 27%
ohio
James Scott OH (3)
Worthington, OH
1851 ± 69 25%
oklahoma
Brian Daniels (1)
Broken Arrow, OK
1726 ± 73 25%
ontario
Adam Becker (2)
Keswick, ON
1747 ± 55 27%
oregon
Colin Urban (5)
Portland, OR
1881 ± 86 53%
pennsylvania
Aleksander Kaczmarczyk (3)
Parts Unknown, PA
1844 ± 82 59%
quebec
Ben Dowie (2)
Montreal, QC
1709 ± 90 30%
rhode island
Nick DeStefano (2)
Holliston, MA
1698 ± 71 43%
saskatchewan
Bob Rhinelander (2)
Regina, SK
1766 ± 65 37%
south carolina
Chad Patz (3)
Charleston, SC
1762 ± 74 24%
south dakota
Jason Lanpher (3)
Parts Unknown, Earth
1818 ± 108 54%
tennessee
Jason Wilson TN (1)
Smyrna, TN
1809 ± 63 37%
texas
Wesley Johnson (2)
College Station, TX
1846 ± 59 19%
utah
Kelly Thomson (3)
Salt Lake City, UT
1736 ± 82 20%
vermont
Connor Shlatz (1)
Burlington, VT
1650 ± 78 25%
virginia
Austin Mackert (7)
Fairfax, VA
1867 ± 82 55%
washington
Lonnie Langford (2)
Seattle, WA
1831 ± 71 30%
west virginia
Aaron Metz (6)
Beckley, WV
1853 ± 139 64%
wisconsin
Escher Lefkoff (1)
Parts Unknown, CO
1904 ± 55 62%

By state/province

ALABAMA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ALABAMA
Seed Player MP Rating Chances of making… WIN
FINALS
QUARTER-
FINALS
SEMI-
FINALS
FINALS
3
Auburn, AL
1772 ± 65 95% 83% 66% 40%
4
Auburn, AL
1759 ± 84 90% 79% 49% 28%
1
Parts Unknown, Earth
1743 ± 74 95% 69% 37% 18%
2
Birmingham, AL
1694 ± 76 71% 51% 18% 7%
9
Parts Unknown, Earth
1679 ± 90 74% 25% 9% 3%
6
Rumford, ME
1644 ± 74 66% 13% 5% 1%
10
Parts Unknown, Earth
1623 ± 80 50% 17% 3% <1%
15
Aliso Viejo, CA
1623 ± 78 29% 15% 3% <1%
7
Birmingham, AL
1620 ± 65 50% 17% 3% <1%
5
Helena, AL
1622 ± 69 62% 12% 3% <1%
12
Meridianville, AL
1586 ± 67 38% 5% <1% <1%
11
Huntsville, AL
1589 ± 76 34% 3% <1% <1%
8
Birmingham, AL
1599 ± 80 26% 4% <1% <1%
13
Birmingham, Earth
1588 ± 73 10% 5% <1% <1%
14
Birmingham, AL
1551 ± 80 5% 1% <1% <1%
16
Meridianville, AL
1526 ± 69 5% <1% <1% <1%

ALBERTA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ALBERTA
Seed Player MP Rating Chances of making… WIN
FINALS
QUARTER-
FINALS
SEMI-
FINALS
FINALS
2
Calgary, AB
1807 ± 61 89% 76% 47% 36%
3
Edmonton, AB
1798 ± 69 79% 63% 35% 26%
1
Calgary, AB
1760 ± 49 66% 42% 30% 13%
9
Calgary, AB
1730 ± 65 70% 33% 20% 7%
11
Chestermere, AB
1708 ± 67 70% 22% 7% 3%
5
Edmonton, AB
1700 ± 73 52%