2022 IFPA North American Championship Series Predictions

Note: this is just a fun side project. I was not able to do extensive QA, so please let me know if you notice any errors or irregularities.
Note 2: North Dakota is not included because they are unable to field a 16 player bracket and my flimsy code can not handle that. Similarly, Nova Scotia has a 4-way tie for the 16th position. Until there is an even 16 players I am unable to include them.
1/13/2023 Update: due to a bug, the previously published results showed the odds for a best-of-one series instead of a best-of-seven. The new results should be correct.
1/19/2023 Update: I reran simulations with a fresh pull of ratings from matchplay. Results may have shifted. Also, you can now view player-vs-player predictions by clicking on player names on state result tables.

How these predictions are made

Overall

2022 IFPA NACS Favorites
Chances of winning state finals
state	Player (Seed)	MP Rating	WIN CHANCE
alabama	Braden Gentry (3) Auburn, AL	1772 ± 65	40%
alberta	Mike Tzanakos (2) Calgary, AB	1807 ± 61	36%
arizona	Will McKinney (2) Phoenix, AZ	1817 ± 63	26%
arkansas	Mike Malone (2) Fayetteville, AR	1709 ± 65	25%
british columbia	Robert Gagno (1) Burnaby, BC	1811 ± 74	31%
california	Jim Belsito (5) Murrieta, CA	1864 ± 84	27%
colorado	Walt Wood (1) Englewood, CO	1924 ± 69	70%
connecticut	Tyler Aas (1) Vernon, CT	1685 ± 63	35%
delaware	Jason Zahler (1) Parts Unknown, NJ	1881 ± 73	72%
district of columbia	David Barber (3) Manassas, VA	1783 ± 90	60%
florida	Eric Stone (1) Fort Myers, FL	1927 ± 76	75%
georgia	Dalton Ely (1) Rockmart, GA	1828 ± 69	60%
idaho	Xyren Silvers (5) Boise, ID	1818 ± 73	62%
illinois	Raymond Davidson (3) Elk Grove Village, IL	1829 ± 57	41%
indiana	Tommy Skinner (19) Lafayette, IN	1811 ± 65	24%
iowa	Cody McQuiston (1) Parts Unknown, IA	1721 ± 84	41%
kansas	Eric German (6) Kansas City, MO	1835 ± 86	54%
kentucky	Jesse Baker (8) Cincinnati, OH	1817 ± 63	35%
Louisiana	Nick Mueller (1) Parts Unknown, FL	1819 ± 100	88%
maine	Joey Harwood (4) Portland, ME	1692 ± 106	30%
manitoba	Jack Tadman (3) Winnipeg, MB	1802 ± 69	35%
maryland	Dave Hubbard (2) Cooksville, MD	1802 ± 71	33%
massachusetts	Bowen Kerins (2) Salem, MA	1824 ± 69	64%
michigan	Jared August (8) West Bloomfield Township, MI	1847 ± 63	42%
minnesota	Mark Larson (4) Parts Unknown, Earth	1796 ± 67	26%
mississippi	Steve Dobbins (1) Corinth, MS	1799 ± 88	76%
missouri	John Miller MO (2) St. Louis, MO	1830 ± 59	39%
nebraska	Tiler Hall (4) Omaha, NE	1792 ± 100	54%
nevada	Steve Strom (4) Las Vegas, NV	1727 ± 71	19%
new brunswick	Pat Herrington (1) Fredericton, NB	1770 ± 94	66%
new hampshire	Brian O'Neill NH (1) Portsmouth, NH	1765 ± 65	59%
new jersey	Anthony Lambos Jr (1) Hamburg, NJ	1786 ± 57	60%
new mexico	Ben Cressy (2) Albuquerque, NM	1850 ± 104	73%
new york	Sean Grant (17) New York, NY	1800 ± 98	26%
north carolina	Drew Cedolia (2) Greensboro, NC	1790 ± 69	27%
ohio	James Scott OH (3) Worthington, OH	1851 ± 69	25%
oklahoma	Brian Daniels (1) Broken Arrow, OK	1726 ± 73	25%
ontario	Adam Becker (2) Keswick, ON	1747 ± 55	27%
oregon	Colin Urban (5) Portland, OR	1881 ± 86	53%
pennsylvania	Aleksander Kaczmarczyk (3) Parts Unknown, PA	1844 ± 82	59%
quebec	Ben Dowie (2) Montreal, QC	1709 ± 90	30%
rhode island	Nick DeStefano (2) Holliston, MA	1698 ± 71	43%
saskatchewan	Bob Rhinelander (2) Regina, SK	1766 ± 65	37%
south carolina	Chad Patz (3) Charleston, SC	1762 ± 74	24%
south dakota	Jason Lanpher (3) Parts Unknown, Earth	1818 ± 108	54%
tennessee	Jason Wilson TN (1) Smyrna, TN	1809 ± 63	37%
texas	Wesley Johnson (2) College Station, TX	1846 ± 59	19%
utah	Kelly Thomson (3) Salt Lake City, UT	1736 ± 82	20%
vermont	Connor Shlatz (1) Burlington, VT	1650 ± 78	25%
virginia	Austin Mackert (7) Fairfax, VA	1867 ± 82	55%
washington	Lonnie Langford (2) Seattle, WA	1831 ± 71	30%
west virginia	Aaron Metz (6) Beckley, WV	1853 ± 139	64%
wisconsin	Escher Lefkoff (1) Parts Unknown, CO	1904 ± 55	62%

By state/province

ALABAMA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ALABAMA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Braden Gentry Auburn, AL	1772 ± 65	95%	83%	66%	40%
4	Scott Mount Auburn, AL	1759 ± 84	90%	79%	49%	28%
1	Timothy Street Parts Unknown, Earth	1743 ± 74	95%	69%	37%	18%
2	Chris Warren AL Birmingham, AL	1694 ± 76	71%	51%	18%	7%
9	Ellis Mount Parts Unknown, Earth	1679 ± 90	74%	25%	9%	3%
6	Jay Ramey Rumford, ME	1644 ± 74	66%	13%	5%	1%
10	Alex Updike Parts Unknown, Earth	1623 ± 80	50%	17%	3%	<1%
15	Brad Allen Aliso Viejo, CA	1623 ± 78	29%	15%	3%	<1%
7	Jeff Street Birmingham, AL	1620 ± 65	50%	17%	3%	<1%
5	Frank Williamson Helena, AL	1622 ± 69	62%	12%	3%	<1%
12	Dan Fox AL Meridianville, AL	1586 ± 67	38%	5%	<1%	<1%
11	Paul Budko Huntsville, AL	1589 ± 76	34%	3%	<1%	<1%
8	David Wurst Birmingham, AL	1599 ± 80	26%	4%	<1%	<1%
13	Mike Gray Birmingham, Earth	1588 ± 73	10%	5%	<1%	<1%
14	Steve Baker Birmingham, AL	1551 ± 80	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Jimmy Gable Meridianville, AL	1526 ± 69	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%

ALBERTA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ALBERTA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Mike Tzanakos Calgary, AB	1807 ± 61	89%	76%	47%	36%
3	Derek Thomson Edmonton, AB	1798 ± 69	79%	63%	35%	26%
1	John Kottmann Calgary, AB	1760 ± 49	66%	42%	30%	13%
9	James McConnell Calgary, AB	1730 ± 65	70%	33%	20%	7%
11	Wes Balla Chestermere, AB	1708 ± 67	70%	22%	7%	3%
5	Paul Sinclair Edmonton, AB	1700 ± 73	52%	29%	11%	3%
16	Bob Matthews Thousand Oaks, CA	1707 ± 51	34%	17%	10%	3%
4	David Johnston US Edmonton, AB	1690 ± 65	53%	26%	9%	2%
12	Dan Horne Calgary, AB	1692 ± 61	48%	24%	9%	2%
10	Alex Kemp Edmonton, AB	1684 ± 74	71%	16%	5%	2%
13	Kevin Rutt Calgary, AB	1683 ± 65	47%	21%	7%	2%
14	Darren Krywolt Calgary, AB	1696 ± 67	21%	11%	3%	1%
8	Jordan Penner Edmonton, AB	1666 ± 74	30%	8%	4%	<1%
15	Elie Kushner Edmonton, AB	1645 ± 78	11%	5%	<1%	<1%
6	Mike Wieschorster Edmonton, AB	1637 ± 76	30%	4%	<1%	<1%
7	Kyle Harvey Edmonton, AB	1612 ± 67	29%	3%	<1%	<1%

ARIZONA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ARIZONA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Will McKinney Phoenix, AZ	1817 ± 63	100%	81%	62%	41%	26%
1	Mark Pearson Phoenix, AZ	1805 ± 57	100%	79%	60%	40%	23%
4	Roland Nadeau Parts Unknown, AZ	1776 ± 59	100%	80%	58%	30%	15%
3	John Shopple Mesa, AZ	1786 ± 61	100%	81%	51%	27%	14%
11	Ben Clement Marana, AZ	1768 ± 71	88%	60%	31%	14%	7%
8	Conrad Betti Phoenix, AZ	1727 ± 57	100%	65%	22%	10%	3%
5	Paul Blanco Chandler, AZ	1718 ± 59	100%	72%	27%	9%	3%
10	Henry Hanshaw Gilbert, AZ	1734 ± 65	71%	39%	12%	5%	2%
7	Jason Barre Mesa, AZ	1720 ± 51	100%	52%	15%	5%	2%
17	Chui Aguilar Mesa, AZ	1720 ± 65	73%	19%	10%	4%	1%
6	Adam Horton Phoenix, AZ	1708 ± 57	100%	37%	12%	4%	1%
18	kevan carter Tempe, AZ	1721 ± 73	69%	16%	8%	3%	1%
9	Kevin Curtis Mesa, AZ	1696 ± 69	66%	26%	7%	2%	<1%
14	John Finnegan Tucson, AZ	1692 ± 61	72%	17%	6%	1%	<1%
20	Wesley Worosello Phoenix, AZ	1674 ± 65	53%	11%	5%	1%	<1%
13	John Magyar Gilbert, AZ	1664 ± 61	47%	9%	4%	<1%	<1%
12	Olivia Helm Chandler, AZ	1661 ± 65	65%	21%	5%	1%	<1%
24	Jon Soares Phoenix, AZ	1645 ± 57	34%	9%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	andy olson Tempe, AZ	1639 ± 59	27%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Jim Smith AZ Phoenix, AZ	1653 ± 53	31%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	Mark Lindbergh Chandler, AZ	1663 ± 69	29%	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Alex Cardwell Parts Unknown, AZ	1617 ± 55	28%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Michael B Cameron AZ Chandler, AZ	1611 ± 61	35%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	James Turner AZ Chandler, AZ	1611 ± 59	12%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

ARKANSAS

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ARKANSAS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Mike Malone Fayetteville, AR	1709 ± 65	71%	56%	40%	25%
1	Phil Nguyen Fayetteville, AR	1698 ± 57	79%	50%	32%	19%
5	Allie Lawson Fayetteville, AR	1662 ± 53	92%	49%	23%	11%
3	Chris Scherer Fayetteville, AR	1649 ± 53	82%	46%	20%	9%
9	Nathan Yates Coal Hill, AR	1666 ± 61	58%	27%	15%	8%
4	John Monkus Parts Unknown, AR	1661 ± 59	58%	31%	14%	7%
6	Brian Rice Fayetteville, AR	1637 ± 61	55%	30%	13%	5%
15	Sidney Thomas Fayetteville, AR	1637 ± 86	29%	18%	9%	3%
8	George Kuharick Fayetteville, AR	1639 ± 65	42%	17%	7%	3%
13	Clinton Sharp Parts Unknown, Earth	1633 ± 65	42%	19%	7%	3%
11	Alex Charton Conway, AR	1618 ± 57	45%	20%	7%	2%
10	Bec Taylor Fayetteville, AR	1612 ± 61	55%	15%	7%	2%
7	Mark Gunter Hope, AR	1597 ± 53	45%	11%	4%	1%
16	Gael Brice Bentonville, AR	1591 ± 65	21%	6%	2%	<1%
14	Luca Shameh Bentonville, AR	1530 ± 67	18%	4%	<1%	<1%
12	Chris Bradley Fayetteville, AR	1480 ± 80	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%

BRITISH COLUMBIA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: BRITISH COLUMBIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Robert Gagno Burnaby, BC	1811 ± 74	84%	63%	44%	31%
2	Sean Lind Vancouver, BC	1773 ± 71	89%	68%	48%	24%
4	Chris Badyk Parts Unknown, Earth	1772 ± 69	73%	49%	24%	14%
8	Sara Little Vancouver, BC	1741 ± 71	74%	26%	13%	7%
6	Fuji Eng Victoria, BC	1717 ± 98	52%	30%	12%	4%
3	Dion Bellay Burnaby, BC	1709 ± 63	58%	28%	11%	3%
5	Billy Gordon Vancouver, BC	1720 ± 63	54%	22%	7%	3%
11	Miles Grant Port Coquitlam, BC	1712 ± 88	48%	26%	10%	3%
10	Braden Lauer Vancouver, BC	1692 ± 71	83%	26%	12%	3%
12	Adam Thompson CAN Vancouver, BC	1711 ± 69	46%	18%	6%	2%
14	Rob Moller Coquitlam, BC	1681 ± 69	42%	16%	5%	1%
13	Tim Phillips New Westminster, BC	1692 ± 73	27%	12%	3%	1%
16	Joe Santbergen Vancouver, BC	1683 ± 59	16%	7%	2%	<1%
9	Tyler Bates Nanaimo, BC	1661 ± 53	26%	4%	1%	<1%
15	Garrett Wolf Vancouver, Earth	1618 ± 63	11%	4%	1%	<1%
7	Karrie Hill Victoria, BC	1570 ± 59	17%	2%	<1%	<1%

CALIFORNIA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: CALIFORNIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	Jim Belsito Murrieta, CA	1864 ± 84	100%	91%	50%	36%	27%
4	Karl DeAngelo Fontana, CA	1864 ± 65	100%	90%	47%	34%	25%
1	Andrei Massenkoff San Francisco, CA	1821 ± 59	100%	64%	53%	20%	13%
7	Scott Macias Glendora, CA	1804 ± 61	100%	62%	34%	25%	9%
2	Derek Price San Diego, CA	1799 ± 67	100%	60%	31%	22%	8%
23	Dan Dempsey Walnut Creek, CA	1785 ± 59	78%	34%	17%	11%	4%
15	Gerald Kirchner Lakewood, CA	1780 ± 63	84%	37%	17%	11%	3%
3	Johnny Modica Hacienda Heights, CA	1749 ± 65	100%	61%	38%	14%	3%
17	Corey Dunn Running Springs, CA	1777 ± 78	51%	19%	14%	4%	2%
16	Nic Stein Davis, CA	1772 ± 71	49%	17%	12%	3%	2%
14	Jared Garvey Berkeley, CA	1732 ± 61	79%	35%	20%	7%	1%
6	raymond ashby Los Angeles, CA	1717 ± 63	100%	59%	26%	7%	1%
8	Leslie Ruckman Parts Unknown, CA	1704 ± 51	100%	53%	12%	2%	<1%
11	Jack Slovacek Parts Unknown, Earth	1693 ± 98	53%	23%	9%	2%	<1%
24	Rick Deml Elk Grove, CA	1695 ± 55	52%	25%	5%	<1%	<1%
22	Tom Isaak El Cajon, CA	1681 ± 69	47%	18%	6%	1%	<1%
9	John Tracey Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA	1689 ± 55	48%	22%	4%	<1%	<1%
10	Kyle Smith San Diego, CA	1687 ± 78	22%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Xavier Marin San Jose, CA	1697 ± 59	60%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
13	Eric Wagensonner San Francisco, CA	1699 ± 84	53%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Zac Wollons San Francisco, CA	1690 ± 57	47%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Tony Lavigna Morgan Hill, CA	1666 ± 67	40%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Jonathan Soon Parts Unknown, CA	1627 ± 55	21%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
18	Louise Wagensonner San Francisco, CA	1653 ± 63	16%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

COLORADO

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: COLORADO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Walt Wood Englewood, CO	1924 ± 69	100%	98%	93%	82%	70%
2	Zach McCarthy Conifer, CO	1823 ± 78	100%	83%	59%	45%	13%
4	Donavan Stepp Lakewood, CO	1795 ± 108	100%	67%	57%	11%	6%
7	Mat Brundage Denver, CO	1768 ± 92	100%	85%	34%	22%	4%
11	Adam Lefkoff Boulder, CO	1744 ± 69	90%	51%	34%	12%	2%
20	Jordan Dechaine Parts Unknown, CO	1751 ± 88	63%	24%	18%	2%	1%
6	John Quinn Denver, CO	1725 ± 94	100%	48%	30%	9%	1%
3	Ryan Altermatt Denver, CO	1703 ± 74	100%	68%	28%	7%	<1%
8	Elliott Layne Parts Unknown, CO	1725 ± 96	100%	77%	6%	2%	<1%
18	Tai Tran Fort Collins, CO	1712 ± 94	64%	12%	5%	2%	<1%
13	Kevin McCarthy Conifer, CO	1707 ± 112	37%	10%	6%	<1%	<1%
12	Paul Kardell Fort Collins, CO	1672 ± 92	64%	35%	8%	<1%	<1%
5	Chase Hart Denver, CO	1652 ± 110	100%	50%	9%	<1%	<1%
14	David Johnson CO Aurora, CO	1650 ± 67	55%	19%	5%	<1%	<1%
19	Nathan Hart Denver, CO	1633 ± 84	45%	13%	3%	<1%	<1%
9	Ryan Wanger Boulder, CO	1632 ± 74	54%	13%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Jackson Fry Fort Collins, CO	1668 ± 94	36%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	Jeremy Simon Lafayette, CO	1637 ± 88	46%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Tim Bruner Northglenn, CO	1575 ± 76	10%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
10	Mark Abbott Denver, CO	1633 ± 76	49%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Brian Wonderly Denver, CO	1626 ± 71	36%	15%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Justin Hinman Denver, CO	1646 ± 63	54%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	John Devore Denver, CO	1618 ± 74	46%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	Mark Blehm Denver, CO	1635 ± 76	51%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CONNECTICUT

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: CONNECTICUT
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Tyler Aas Vernon, CT	1685 ± 63	93%	72%	47%	35%
4	Matt Boschert Parts Unknown, Earth	1648 ± 76	81%	48%	22%	14%
2	Davey Plaisted North Stonington, CT	1621 ± 63	80%	54%	32%	13%
5	Ashton Capone Parts Unknown, CT	1639 ± 67	77%	40%	18%	11%
11	Jason Corrado New Haven, CT	1611 ± 63	59%	35%	19%	7%
3	Chris Dirga Parts Unknown, CT	1604 ± 61	72%	37%	20%	7%
7	James Swain Jr. Hamden, CT	1577 ± 74	63%	27%	12%	3%
9	Mike Capone Parts Unknown, CT	1599 ± 73	54%	15%	6%	3%
6	Holly Danowski Meriden, CT	1581 ± 67	41%	20%	10%	3%
8	Ron Benoit Bloomfield, CT	1587 ± 61	46%	12%	4%	2%
10	Andy Obelnicki West Hartford, CT	1536 ± 61	37%	12%	4%	<1%
14	Brenda Kabel East Hartford, CT	1528 ± 73	28%	8%	3%	<1%
12	Dan Carnein Parts Unknown, Earth	1540 ± 74	23%	6%	1%	<1%
15	Chris Point Parts Unknown, CT	1505 ± 84	20%	6%	2%	<1%
13	Kristen Bayusik Meriden, CT	1537 ± 55	19%	5%	<1%	<1%
16	Wes Frosolone New Haven, CT	1492 ± 59	7%	2%	<1%	<1%

DELAWARE

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: DELAWARE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Jason Zahler Parts Unknown, NJ	1881 ± 73	97%	93%	86%	72%
6	Robert DeStasio Cinnaminson, NJ	1764 ± 90	83%	56%	30%	8%
10	Eric Destasio Parts Unknown, Earth	1760 ± 84	82%	46%	26%	7%
2	Matthew Richardson Medford, NJ	1760 ± 84	71%	39%	22%	6%
4	Chad Hastings Parts Unknown, DE	1710 ± 63	76%	54%	8%	3%
3	Steve Zahler Parts Unknown, NY	1711 ± 67	51%	20%	8%	1%
14	Sanjay Shah Parts Unknown, NJ	1708 ± 63	49%	20%	8%	1%
5	Rick Prince Parts Unknown, PA	1660 ± 69	73%	30%	2%	<1%
15	Tom Destasio Parts Unknown, NJ	1688 ± 74	29%	10%	4%	<1%
8	John Hurd NJ Erma, NJ	1662 ± 61	58%	4%	2%	<1%
9	Stefano Pinti Parts Unknown, Earth	1638 ± 65	42%	2%	<1%	<1%
11	James Perugini Wilmington, DE	1639 ± 51	17%	4%	<1%	<1%
16	Brian LeBlanc Magnolia, AR	1634 ± 73	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
7	Pete Tsipouras Parts Unknown, Earth	1645 ± 69	18%	4%	1%	<1%
13	Rodney Comegys Exton, PA	1617 ± 55	24%	10%	<1%	<1%
12	Victor Scelba Parts Unknown, VA	1582 ± 63	27%	6%	<1%	<1%

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	David Barber Manassas, VA	1783 ± 90	96%	90%	72%	60%
2	Matthew Gatwood Washington, DC	1690 ± 88	95%	70%	21%	13%
13	Won Chang Washington, DC	1681 ± 120	75%	51%	31%	9%
1	Calvin Oung Washington, DC	1654 ± 63	74%	41%	21%	6%
9	Nels Evenson Alexandria, VA	1654 ± 86	74%	42%	21%	5%
5	Eric Batke Washington, DC	1640 ± 76	64%	28%	14%	3%
10	Mollie Lee Washington, DC	1621 ± 106	57%	18%	3%	1%
11	Rene Hilbach-Barger Parts Unknown, MD	1597 ± 57	64%	7%	2%	<1%
12	Brian Galletta Silver Spring, MD	1594 ± 84	36%	11%	4%	<1%
7	Stephen Hansell Washington, DC	1598 ± 65	43%	11%	1%	<1%
4	Benjamin Linkow Silver Spring, MD	1593 ± 69	25%	10%	4%	<1%
8	Matthew A Green Parts Unknown, WA	1574 ± 90	26%	9%	2%	<1%
16	Neil Tapper Baltimore, MD	1570 ± 63	26%	8%	2%	<1%
6	Tom Kenyon Parts Unknown, Earth	1549 ± 69	36%	2%	<1%	<1%
14	Victoria Rocco Washington, DC	1545 ± 102	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
15	Malcolm Utley Parts Unknown, MD	1473 ± 57	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%

FLORIDA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: FLORIDA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Eric Stone Fort Myers, FL	1927 ± 76	100%	98%	94%	81%	75%
5	Sebastian Bobbio Parts Unknown, Earth	1805 ± 69	100%	93%	68%	14%	10%
7	Joe Geneau St Augustine, FL	1753 ± 74	100%	87%	52%	31%	4%
3	Vince Gelormine Fort Lauderdale, FL	1744 ± 53	100%	88%	56%	29%	4%
2	Shannon Stafford Orange Park, FL	1737 ± 57	100%	78%	39%	21%	3%
6	Samuel Witts Lakeland, FL	1717 ± 63	100%	72%	34%	15%	2%
4	Dan Coyle St. Petersburg, FL	1736 ± 71	100%	65%	22%	2%	1%
9	Alex Marino Oviedo, FL	1723 ± 78	76%	51%	4%	1%	<1%
13	Jeff Palmer Parkland, FL	1708 ± 114	84%	34%	9%	<1%	<1%
22	Neal Wagoner Tybee Island, GA	1660 ± 78	71%	24%	7%	2%	<1%
8	Adam Gray Temple Terrace, FL	1669 ± 55	100%	40%	1%	<1%	<1%
18	Al Neumann DeLand, FL	1633 ± 73	47%	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
17	Bobbi Douthitt Saint Petersburg, FL	1650 ± 57	54%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Justin Derazza Lake Mary, FL	1640 ± 69	53%	12%	3%	<1%	<1%
14	Shawn Brunner Tampa, FL	1605 ± 55	66%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
23	Zachary Leja Pompano Beach, FL	1623 ± 73	60%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
21	Anthony Dickson Jacksonville, FL	1606 ± 73	46%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	David Miller FL Tampa, FL	1618 ± 55	54%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Tristan Stafford Orange Park, FL	1578 ± 59	16%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
11	Chris Henry FL Callahan, FL	1587 ± 78	29%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Quincy Rients Apollo Beach, FL	1551 ± 106	34%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	Brayden Derazza Lake Mary, FL	1632 ± 71	46%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Mike Poli Orlando, FL	1631 ± 63	24%	9%	<1%	<1%	<1%
10	Sierra Lieffort Lakeland, FL	1591 ± 65	40%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%

GEORGIA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: GEORGIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Dalton Ely Rockmart, GA	1828 ± 69	92%	87%	71%	60%
15	Alex white Parts Unknown, Earth	1722 ± 80	66%	55%	36%	11%
4	Bo Brown Atlanta, GA	1725 ± 74	90%	50%	14%	9%
5	Adam Williams GA Decatur, GA	1716 ± 80	60%	31%	9%	5%
11	Jokton Strealy Valdosta, GA	1688 ± 65	55%	33%	17%	4%
3	Tommy Vernieri Atlanta, GA	1671 ± 57	56%	25%	12%	2%
2	Scott Kutheis Parts Unknown, Earth	1667 ± 63	34%	23%	11%	2%
6	Harold VanPatten Atlanta, GA	1673 ± 67	45%	24%	11%	2%
12	Kevin Grillo Atlanta, GA	1684 ± 84	40%	17%	4%	2%
14	Mark Munder Marietta, GA	1651 ± 67	44%	18%	7%	1%
9	Dan Werry Daytona Beach, FL	1631 ± 84	70%	7%	2%	<1%
16	Dillon McFarland Decatur, GA	1641 ± 76	8%	5%	1%	<1%
10	Marc Fleury Atlanta, GA	1600 ± 80	50%	11%	3%	<1%
7	Turner Loflin Parts Unknown, Earth	1600 ± 63	50%	11%	3%	<1%
13	Jacob Gragg Atlanta, GA	1555 ± 71	10%	1%	<1%	<1%
8	Stephen Gentry Auburn, AL	1564 ± 65	30%	1%	<1%	<1%

IDAHO

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: IDAHO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	Xyren Silvers Boise, ID	1818 ± 73	82%	77%	68%	62%
1	Dwayne Smith Boise, ID	1677 ± 59	87%	65%	15%	9%
2	Sterling Emry Nampa, ID	1659 ± 55	91%	56%	33%	7%
12	Chris Hebert Boise, ID	1703 ± 71	18%	14%	9%	6%
3	John Fricke Boise, ID	1650 ± 67	78%	46%	24%	5%
6	Doug Brown ID Meridian, ID	1641 ± 67	74%	40%	19%	4%
10	Brandon Atchley Boise, ID	1635 ± 59	58%	27%	14%	2%
4	Chad Herbert Boise, ID	1627 ± 63	77%	9%	4%	2%
8	Gerry Eismann Boise, ID	1603 ± 61	71%	24%	3%	1%
7	Matt Lauro Boise, ID	1606 ± 59	42%	16%	6%	<1%
11	David Goar Parts Unknown, Earth	1560 ± 67	26%	8%	2%	<1%
14	Spencer Riess Nampa, ID	1548 ± 76	22%	7%	1%	<1%
16	Sean Hunter US Boise, ID	1533 ± 65	13%	5%	<1%	<1%
9	Debbie Smith Boise, ID	1530 ± 65	29%	5%	<1%	<1%
13	Mike Adamson Boise, ID	1530 ± 65	23%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Dave Fellows Boise, ID	1485 ± 65	9%	1%	<1%	<1%

ILLINOIS

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ILLINOIS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Raymond Davidson Elk Grove Village, IL	1829 ± 57	100%	90%	79%	55%	41%
1	Andy Bagwell Elgin, IL	1784 ± 71	100%	80%	66%	47%	21%
2	Steven Bowden Palatine, IL	1789 ± 55	100%	84%	58%	27%	17%
13	Dave Hegge Chicago, IL	1741 ± 88	84%	56%	38%	19%	6%
7	Stanley Sowa Jr Chicago, IL	1743 ± 73	100%	67%	28%	9%	5%
5	Alex Lecky Chicago, IL	1697 ± 55	100%	64%	29%	11%	3%
4	Chuck Sanderson Parts Unknown, Earth	1686 ± 69	100%	40%	21%	7%	1%
22	Rachel Karlic Chicago, IL	1702 ± 61	80%	48%	9%	3%	1%
8	Bob Twichell Oaklawn, IL	1670 ± 61	100%	59%	15%	6%	1%
16	Yancy Blaylock West Dundee, IL	1691 ± 92	64%	15%	9%	4%	<1%
6	Tyler Becker Parts Unknown, Earth	1670 ± 61	100%	47%	7%	2%	<1%
10	Jane Verwys Chicago, IL	1691 ± 53	56%	20%	6%	1%	<1%
15	Matt Wilson Evanston, IL	1679 ± 69	69%	14%	5%	1%	<1%
12	Maurice Smith II Lansing, IL	1660 ± 59	56%	22%	7%	2%	<1%
24	Nick Weyna Des Plaines, IL	1658 ± 82	64%	29%	6%	2%	<1%
19	Chris Ecker Chicago, IL	1662 ± 53	54%	5%	3%	<1%	<1%
21	David Smith MO Saint Louis, MO	1638 ± 76	44%	14%	4%	<1%	<1%
23	Marq Quiller Alton, IL	1672 ± 88	44%	13%	3%	<1%	<1%
17	Stephen Chappell Ferguson, MO	1646 ± 65	36%	5%	3%	<1%	<1%
14	Will Cooper CA Chicago, IL	1649 ± 61	46%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
9	Tim Zollner Edwardsville, IL	1614 ± 78	36%	12%	2%	<1%	<1%
20	Ken Walker IL Brookfield, IL	1611 ± 61	16%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	Kevin Kolodziej Arlington Heights, IL	1595 ± 65	20%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Tom Menge Marengo, IL	1616 ± 55	31%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

INDIANA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: INDIANA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
19	Tommy Skinner Lafayette, IN	1811 ± 65	90%	65%	51%	38%	24%
17	Gregory Kennedy Plain City, OH	1814 ± 59	86%	48%	40%	31%	20%
1	Andy Dill Martinsville, IN	1797 ± 49	100%	50%	39%	29%	18%
2	Ryan Quinn Bluffton, IN	1733 ± 55	100%	78%	41%	16%	6%
7	Joe Bayer Indianapolis, IN	1735 ± 55	100%	57%	32%	13%	5%
3	Joshua Franklin Fort Wayne, IN	1737 ± 59	100%	33%	20%	11%	4%
5	Ryan Donohue Indianapolis, IN	1723 ± 57	100%	57%	31%	10%	4%
22	Matt Peace Springville, IN	1734 ± 55	61%	44%	16%	8%	3%
4	Josh Riggle Parts Unknown, Earth	1714 ± 55	100%	55%	27%	8%	3%
8	Scott Elliott Columbia City, IN	1710 ± 61	100%	75%	17%	8%	3%
10	Bob Skinner IN Indianapolis, IN	1730 ± 61	67%	33%	18%	7%	3%
13	Graham Stiver Fort Wayne, IN	1719 ± 71	79%	40%	20%	7%	2%
21	Jon Rangel Indianapolis, IN	1719 ± 65	71%	34%	18%	6%	2%
11	Kim Coghill Logansport, IN	1698 ± 59	39%	24%	7%	3%	<1%
6	Mark Moore IN Ligonier, IN	1656 ± 57	100%	32%	5%	2%	<1%
23	Travis Hockemeyer Fort Wayne, IN	1669 ± 73	33%	10%	4%	<1%	<1%
18	Deb Dull Fort Wayne, IN	1640 ± 67	55%	13%	3%	<1%	<1%
12	Dan White Crown Point, IN	1653 ± 61	29%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Nick Squires Fort Wayne, IN	1674 ± 69	14%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
9	Chris Fogel Fort Wayne, IN	1636 ± 63	62%	18%	2%	<1%	<1%
14	Molly Oury Parts Unknown, IN	1649 ± 53	10%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Brandon Riggle Parts Unknown, Earth	1600 ± 71	38%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Steve McNabney Fort Wayne, IN	1623 ± 63	45%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
20	Bob Dull Fort Wayne, IN	1617 ± 59	21%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%

IOWA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: IOWA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Cody McQuiston Parts Unknown, IA	1721 ± 84	89%	84%	70%	41%
2	Sawyer Herweh Des Moines, IA	1727 ± 123	57%	33%	27%	16%
7	Don Brownback Parkville, MO	1709 ± 74	56%	27%	21%	12%
15	Darren Gregory Ankeny, IA	1704 ± 161	43%	21%	16%	9%
10	Tim Colby Parts Unknown, Earth	1691 ± 116	44%	19%	14%	8%
13	David Owen Des Moines, IA	1612 ± 100	78%	49%	15%	4%
6	Dan Garrett Altoona, IA	1621 ± 106	80%	45%	11%	4%
14	Parker Stevens West Des Moines, IA	1621 ± 96	80%	45%	11%	4%
12	Tom Castellano Parts Unknown, Earth	1586 ± 59	66%	32%	7%	1%
16	Chris Essig Des Moines, IA	1563 ± 110	11%	8%	3%	<1%
5	Matthew Hartmann Parts Unknown, Earth	1532 ± 176	34%	12%	2%	<1%
9	Chad Martinez Cedar Falls, IA	1500 ± 294	54%	5%	1%	<1%
4	Scott Millman Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	22%	7%	<1%	<1%
3	Jay Gross Peosta, IA	1500 ± 294	20%	5%	<1%	<1%
11	Aaron Van Noy Iowa City, IA	1500 ± 294	20%	5%	<1%	<1%
8	Sean Clarke Waterloo, IA	1485 ± 194	46%	3%	<1%	<1%

KANSAS

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: KANSAS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Eric German Kansas City, MO	1835 ± 86	94%	87%	64%	54%
1	Preston Pywell Wichita, KS	1737 ± 71	89%	62%	43%	13%
15	Keri Wing Overland Park, KS	1774 ± 67	52%	38%	14%	10%
2	Mark McColpin Kansas City, MO	1766 ± 67	48%	35%	13%	9%
13	Logan Harding Lawrence, KS	1694 ± 86	65%	42%	19%	4%
7	Phil Cridlebaugh Kansas City, KS	1712 ± 74	76%	24%	6%	3%
8	Max Koeckeritz Shawnee, KS	1679 ± 88	56%	21%	12%	2%
5	Logan Wiehn Wichita, KS	1665 ± 57	67%	31%	12%	2%
9	Marion Richards Kansas City, KS	1663 ± 57	44%	15%	7%	1%
4	Rob Huffman Bates City, MO	1642 ± 63	35%	17%	5%	<1%
14	Gordon Brown KS Lawrence, KS	1649 ± 73	55%	6%	1%	<1%
3	Dave Chapman El Dorado, KS	1633 ± 57	45%	4%	<1%	<1%
12	Steve Brown USA Wichita, KS	1609 ± 61	33%	10%	2%	<1%
10	Chad Cowan Wichita, KS	1623 ± 63	24%	3%	<1%	<1%
11	Sam Swain Wichita, KS	1627 ± 67	6%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Conard Bush Parts Unknown, KS	1573 ± 80	11%	2%	<1%	<1%

KENTUCKY

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: KENTUCKY
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
8	Jesse Baker Cincinnati, OH	1817 ± 63	87%	62%	53%	35%
2	Kalyn Smith CA Louisville, KY	1780 ± 61	97%	74%	41%	21%
3	Elizabeth Gieske Parts Unknown, Earth	1769 ± 63	88%	49%	27%	13%
1	Sean Davis Louisville, KY	1757 ± 57	87%	33%	24%	11%
11	Trent Augenstein Delaware, OH	1768 ± 49	76%	42%	22%	11%
4	Tim Ellis New Albany, IN	1699 ± 59	79%	48%	12%	4%
7	Erik Wurtenberger Independence, KY	1702 ± 65	67%	20%	6%	2%
12	Robert Cecil Sellersburg, IN	1667 ± 61	55%	26%	5%	1%
5	Jason Gwin Louisville, KY	1653 ± 61	45%	20%	3%	<1%
6	Joe Embry Louisville, KY	1678 ± 61	24%	7%	2%	<1%
9	Willy Allen Maysville, KY	1666 ± 67	13%	4%	2%	<1%
10	Greg Knight Louisville, KY	1647 ± 57	33%	6%	1%	<1%
16	Dan Donnell Louisville, KY	1612 ± 69	13%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	Dusty Segretto Louisville, KY	1590 ± 61	21%	6%	<1%	<1%
14	Heath Ashley Columbia, SC	1619 ± 82	12%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Justin Ryan Corydon, IN	1532 ± 67	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

LOUISIANA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: LOUISIANA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Nick Mueller Parts Unknown, FL	1819 ± 100	98%	97%	90%	88%
4	Edwin Hunter Parts Unknown, LA	1630 ± 112	90%	56%	6%	4%
10	James Haag Leesville, LA	1590 ± 149	72%	45%	32%	2%
5	Mike Vanetten Parks, LA	1600 ± 131	90%	41%	3%	2%
2	Brian Fults Lake Charles, LA	1565 ± 73	73%	37%	24%	2%
6	Rob Burnside Parts Unknown, LA	1543 ± 104	62%	42%	18%	<1%
14	Sam Ottinger Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	58%	24%	8%	<1%
11	Patrick Pichon Lake Charles, LA	1500 ± 294	38%	21%	7%	<1%
7	Joshua Dupre Houma, LA	1513 ± 116	28%	11%	5%	<1%
9	Todd Furman Parts Unknown, LA	1532 ± 131	56%	1%	<1%	<1%
8	Jody Aucoin Lake Charles, LA	1507 ± 108	44%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	David Miller LA Baton Rouge, LA	1517 ± 151	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
3	Reese Furman Parts Unknown, Earth	1470 ± 131	42%	13%	3%	<1%
15	Wendy Bourg Baton Rouge, LA	1482 ± 131	27%	7%	3%	<1%
13	Paul Heard Parts Unknown, Earth	1461 ± 118	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Matthew Fults Houston, TX	1418 ± 184	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MAINE

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MAINE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Joey Harwood Portland, ME	1692 ± 106	86%	64%	38%	30%
1	Geoff Alterman Portland, ME	1673 ± 84	89%	53%	29%	22%
9	Chuck Webster Wakefield, MA	1653 ± 69	86%	42%	20%	14%
2	Daniel Letendre Portland, ME	1616 ± 71	67%	43%	28%	10%
3	Nate Straz Westbrook, ME	1582 ± 61	68%	38%	18%	5%
12	Joe Irace Parts Unknown, Earth	1618 ± 122	61%	21%	8%	5%
7	Gabe Noblesmith Parts Unknown, ME	1580 ± 76	58%	26%	14%	4%
11	Nate Mills Parts Unknown, Earth	1574 ± 74	56%	30%	13%	3%
15	Austin Chenelle Pittsfield, NH	1561 ± 106	33%	16%	8%	2%
6	David Aceto Portland, ME	1553 ± 108	44%	21%	8%	1%
5	Seth Clayter Portland, ME	1585 ± 86	39%	10%	3%	1%
10	Matt Liskom Portland, ME	1550 ± 141	42%	15%	6%	1%
14	Jeff Parsons Portland, ME	1521 ± 102	32%	12%	4%	<1%
13	Caitlyn Hewson Parts Unknown, Earth	1552 ± 65	14%	5%	<1%	<1%
8	Mike Hassett Portland, ME	1512 ± 137	14%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Trey Crews Parts Unknown, Earth	1516 ± 106	11%	2%	<1%	<1%

MANITOBA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MANITOBA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Jack Tadman Winnipeg, MB	1802 ± 69	96%	79%	49%	35%
1	Drew Sych Winnipeg, MB	1755 ± 63	93%	80%	62%	26%
2	Jay Woolston Winnipeg, MB	1786 ± 73	90%	62%	32%	23%
10	Ian Gomm Winnipeg, MB	1743 ± 94	76%	32%	12%	7%
5	Derek Willis Winnipeg, MB	1687 ± 65	63%	43%	16%	4%
6	Jill Hisco Winnipeg, MB	1687 ± 69	87%	19%	5%	2%
4	David Morris Winnipeg, MB	1642 ± 73	66%	28%	7%	1%
12	Jeff Jonuk Parts Unknown, Earth	1644 ± 86	37%	20%	6%	<1%
8	Marcel Toutant Winnipeg, MB	1627 ± 63	60%	12%	5%	<1%
7	Tony Hisco Winnipeg, MB	1652 ± 102	24%	5%	<1%	<1%
9	Grant Zeilstra Winnipeg, MB	1595 ± 63	40%	6%	2%	<1%
13	Darren Cancilla Parts Unknown, Earth	1591 ± 88	34%	9%	2%	<1%
15	Kevin Peden Big Black River, MB	1612 ± 80	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Jody Linn Winnipeg, MB	1564 ± 69	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
14	Samara May Parts Unknown, MB	1582 ± 73	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	John Bear Winnipeg, MB	1536 ± 71	13%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MARYLAND

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MARYLAND
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Dave Hubbard Cooksville, MD	1802 ± 71	100%	93%	74%	54%	33%
1	Elliott Keith Catonsville, MD	1791 ± 63	100%	93%	77%	54%	31%
12	Zachary Parks Evanston, IL	1767 ± 90	82%	62%	47%	23%	12%
6	Justin Day Glen Burnie, MD	1719 ± 71	100%	83%	40%	14%	6%
19	Douglas M Malcolm Chevy Chase, MD	1746 ± 88	57%	35%	22%	9%	4%
7	Joe Kosack Crofton, MD	1704 ± 86	100%	61%	16%	7%	3%
3	Justin Bath PG County, MD	1708 ± 51	100%	43%	22%	7%	2%
13	Anthony Frasca Baltimore, MD	1699 ± 67	64%	39%	17%	5%	2%
14	Mike Frasca Baltimore, MD	1720 ± 73	43%	22%	13%	5%	2%
9	Spencer DesRoches Baltimore, MD	1690 ± 59	86%	57%	14%	6%	2%
5	Alex Jeffrey Columbia, MD	1676 ± 53	100%	30%	15%	4%	1%
4	Doru Zuba Potomac, MD	1660 ± 51	100%	44%	13%	3%	<1%
23	Andrew Pancoast Suffolk, VA	1687 ± 92	66%	29%	7%	2%	<1%
8	Stephanie Traub Washington, DC	1638 ± 49	100%	40%	6%	2%	<1%
21	Rob Wintler-Cox Derwood, MD	1648 ± 61	18%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
20	Finn Garman Crofton, MD	1651 ± 71	36%	17%	5%	<1%	<1%
18	Shawn Hillman Potomac, MD	1622 ± 53	57%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	Francis Parks Rockville, MD	1632 ± 51	34%	10%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	Jose Chong Parts Unknown, Earth	1606 ± 49	58%	11%	2%	<1%	<1%
17	Kengtai Ko Parts Unknown, VA	1602 ± 57	49%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Douglas J Malcolm Wheaton-Glenmont, MD	1607 ± 55	51%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
22	Justin Allen Glen Burnie, MD	1579 ± 61	42%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Peter Pinocci Hagerstown, MD	1549 ± 71	14%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Dave Snyder VA Alexandria, VA	1600 ± 67	43%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MASSACHUSETTS

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MASSACHUSETTS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Bowen Kerins Salem, MA	1824 ± 69	98%	96%	90%	64%
1	Joe Lemire Hopkinton, MA	1772 ± 63	97%	92%	87%	34%
3	Eric Geddes Peabody, MA	1644 ± 90	77%	56%	6%	1%
4	Mike Schmitt Parts Unknown, MA	1575 ± 59	74%	44%	5%	<1%
5	Dan Wilga Hadley, MA	1560 ± 71	70%	37%	3%	<1%
11	Marc Patenaude Boston, MA	1569 ± 67	50%	17%	<1%	<1%
10	Keith Merrill Warren, MA	1567 ± 59	56%	2%	<1%	<1%
6	Kevin Duffy MA Waltham, MA	1566 ± 59	50%	17%	<1%	<1%
9	Daniel Reigner Parts Unknown, MA	1552 ± 76	58%	4%	2%	<1%
14	Augustus Eustis Somerville, MA	1547 ± 104	23%	10%	<1%	<1%
16	Tones Smith Parts Unknown, MA	1524 ± 73	3%	2%	<1%	<1%
8	Ed Jacques Chicopee, MA	1527 ± 65	42%	2%	<1%	<1%
7	Lee Fernandes Palmer, MA	1549 ± 61	44%	1%	<1%	<1%
15	Andrew Stevens Ware, MA	1526 ± 61	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Rick Rock Three Rivers, MA	1492 ± 69	30%	9%	<1%	<1%
13	Patrick Burns Holyoke, MA	1494 ± 108	26%	10%	<1%	<1%

MICHIGAN

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MICHIGAN
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
8	Jared August West Bloomfield Township, MI	1847 ± 63	100%	91%	61%	48%	42%
17	Andrew Rosa II Flint, MI	1817 ± 71	89%	68%	30%	22%	18%
4	Alex Harmon Spring Lake, MI	1764 ± 63	100%	58%	41%	13%	9%
14	Marco Vendetti Parts Unknown, MI	1727 ± 65	89%	57%	35%	20%	6%
2	Rodney Minch Grand Rapids, MI	1717 ± 51	100%	58%	36%	19%	5%
13	Chris Tabaka Jackson, MI	1756 ± 76	75%	36%	24%	7%	5%
11	Adam Peacock Grand Rapids, MI	1712 ± 69	69%	41%	21%	12%	3%
18	Jim Droski Kalamazoo, MI	1710 ± 74	72%	35%	21%	11%	2%
7	Phil Harmon Fremont, MI	1686 ± 59	100%	54%	23%	11%	2%
6	tyrus eagle Ypsilanti, MI	1683 ± 67	100%	47%	21%	10%	2%
1	Matthew Stacks Grand Rapids, MI	1724 ± 53	100%	29%	6%	3%	2%
3	Mike Stewart Jr Grand Blanc, MI	1681 ± 53	100%	41%	19%	8%	1%
12	Ethan Magnum Parts Unknown, MI	1710 ± 59	73%	40%	15%	3%	1%
5	Allen Robertson Sour Lake, TX	1695 ± 57	100%	51%	17%	3%	1%
10	Matt Currie Portage, MI	1673 ± 71	50%	23%	9%	4%	<1%
23	Chris Grace Parts Unknown, MI	1672 ± 69	50%	23%	9%	3%	<1%
24	Sterling Mitoska Brooklyn, MI	1690 ± 51	67%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Dominic Labella Bay City, MI	1651 ± 49	31%	12%	4%	2%	<1%
20	Todd Seaver Saginaw, MI	1671 ± 65	25%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Brian Keillor Lansing, MI	1633 ± 63	28%	7%	3%	<1%	<1%
21	Josh Bauer Lansing, MI	1634 ± 63	27%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Bill Lembesis Livonia, MI	1656 ± 61	11%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
9	Philip Salminen Midland, MI	1637 ± 51	33%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Jeff Catenacci Roseville, MI	1567 ± 57	11%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MINNESOTA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MINNESOTA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Mark Larson Parts Unknown, Earth	1796 ± 67	100%	83%	55%	34%	26%
1	Luke Nahorniak Lonsdale, MN	1796 ± 49	100%	73%	54%	31%	24%
3	Chris Frame St Paul, MN	1728 ± 65	100%	80%	58%	35%	12%
12	David Marcis Saint Paul, MN	1766 ± 67	91%	67%	31%	16%	11%
8	Tony Midtling Parts Unknown, Earth	1724 ± 67	100%	63%	22%	8%	5%
15	Ben Granger Minneapolis, MN	1713 ± 63	74%	40%	24%	13%	4%
2	Adam Turgeson Coon Rapids, MN	1696 ± 61	100%	52%	29%	14%	4%
10	Eric Fryc Minneapolis, MN	1699 ± 57	80%	45%	22%	11%	3%
7	Bryan Moen Parts Unknown, MN	1679 ± 71	100%	50%	22%	10%	2%
6	Trevor Klungseth Ham Lake, MN	1663 ± 63	100%	60%	22%	9%	2%
9	Matthew Sommerfeld Minneapolis, Earth	1699 ± 57	79%	33%	10%	3%	1%
5	Terry Weber Northfield, MN	1687 ± 61	100%	31%	8%	2%	1%
16	Mike Muggli Parts Unknown, Earth	1716 ± 88	50%	14%	7%	2%	1%
17	Tate Nahorniak Norwood Young America, MN	1715 ± 86	50%	13%	7%	2%	1%
13	Jared Eshelman Parts Unknown, Earth	1682 ± 63	80%	16%	5%	2%	<1%
11	Nathan Reardon Parts Unknown, MN	1648 ± 51	70%	32%	10%	3%	<1%
14	Brad Steinke Dayton, MN	1633 ± 61	59%	13%	6%	2%	<1%
18	Keith Bittner Saint Paul, OR	1629 ± 61	26%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
19	Dan Hammond Chaska, MN	1606 ± 47	41%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Jim Hartley Parts Unknown, Earth	1582 ± 61	30%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
24	Nic Beatty Minneapolis, MN	1599 ± 57	21%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	David Thell Parts Unknown, MN	1596 ± 63	20%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
21	Josh Anderson MN Blaine, MN	1590 ± 63	9%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Louis Acre-Kendall Cambridge, MN	1575 ± 49	20%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MISSISSIPPI

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MISSISSIPPI
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Steve Dobbins Corinth, MS	1799 ± 88	99%	94%	88%	76%
2	Bill Baggett Memphis, TN	1685 ± 51	90%	63%	49%	12%
7	Carson Thaxton Flowood, MS	1635 ± 76	77%	31%	19%	4%
12	Joseph Bukosky Little Rock, AR	1616 ± 96	61%	43%	5%	2%
11	David Dent Ridgeland, MS	1603 ± 65	55%	32%	11%	1%
14	Kevin Keniston Brandon, MS	1589 ± 133	56%	26%	8%	<1%
8	Ariel Dutton Parts Unknown, LA	1601 ± 73	60%	4%	2%	<1%
6	Connor Thaxton Flowood, MS	1588 ± 78	45%	23%	7%	<1%
5	Jared King Parts Unknown, Earth	1580 ± 69	39%	24%	2%	<1%
4	John McNaughton Jackson, MS	1561 ± 98	84%	32%	2%	<1%
3	Jessica Thaxton Flowood, MS	1567 ± 61	44%	18%	5%	<1%
9	Stephen Thaxton Flowood, MS	1566 ± 69	40%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	Fred Jennings Memphis, TN	1538 ± 65	23%	4%	1%	<1%
15	Emma King Starkville, MS	1512 ± 69	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Amanda Turner Starkville, MS	1434 ± 63	16%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Brandon Chapman Flowood, MS	1486 ± 76	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MISSOURI

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: MISSOURI
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	John Miller MO St. Louis, MO	1830 ± 59	100%	92%	83%	63%	39%
4	Jason Scheffelmaer Olathe, KS	1816 ± 61	100%	83%	65%	41%	23%
1	Adam McKinnie Columbia, MO	1797 ± 57	100%	87%	70%	38%	19%
3	Steve Hill MO Kansas City, MO	1764 ± 69	100%	81%	52%	20%	8%
6	Josh Noble Columbia, MO	1733 ± 76	100%	81%	39%	12%	4%
21	Jim Mank Overland Park, KS	1741 ± 90	72%	46%	16%	7%	2%
8	Kendell Holder Saint Louis, MO	1698 ± 59	100%	68%	19%	5%	1%
13	Nick Greenup Kansas City, MO	1708 ± 57	78%	16%	8%	3%	<1%
5	Steve Rolsing St. Louis, MO	1695 ± 61	100%	43%	9%	3%	<1%
7	Mike Kruetzkamp Kansas City, MO	1669 ± 61	100%	64%	10%	3%	<1%
16	Steve Fredericks Saint Louis, MO	1659 ± 74	56%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
9	Ryan Willenbrock St. Louis, MO	1652 ± 63	59%	21%	4%	<1%	<1%
14	Sunshine Bon Columbia, MO	1669 ± 59	63%	14%	5%	<1%	<1%
12	Dylan Michalski Kansas City, KS	1663 ± 67	28%	12%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Scott Lee Pontoon Beach, IL	1630 ± 55	58%	13%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Brennan Sullivan St. Louis, MO	1652 ± 51	52%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
18	Chris Ward St. Louis, MO	1646 ± 63	48%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
17	Kraig Blaeuer Kansas City, MO	1641 ± 71	44%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Shane Yozzo Kansas City, MO	1627 ± 63	37%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
10	Clayton Prinster Saint Charles, MO	1623 ± 59	49%	18%	2%	<1%	<1%
23	Brian Berg Parts Unknown, Earth	1623 ± 69	51%	18%	1%	<1%	<1%
20	Joel Cash Kansas City, MO	1609 ± 65	22%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
11	Mike Howard St. Louis, MO	1606 ± 51	42%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Michael LaFrieda Parts Unknown, MO	1622 ± 55	41%	11%	1%	<1%	<1%

NEBRASKA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEBRASKA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Tiler Hall Omaha, NE	1792 ± 100	99%	91%	70%	54%
2	Matt Niksick Omaha, NE	1724 ± 82	96%	66%	43%	17%
1	Tyler Zimmerman Omaha, NE	1717 ± 71	91%	69%	23%	13%
3	Geoff Davis Omaha, NE	1696 ± 71	74%	50%	24%	7%
7	Alex Wilson Omaha, NE	1662 ± 80	51%	17%	9%	2%
8	Mark Thimijan Lincoln, NE	1644 ± 86	74%	25%	5%	2%
10	Jeremy Larsen Omaha, NE	1658 ± 96	49%	17%	8%	2%
6	Justin Babb Omaha, NE	1644 ± 76	51%	21%	7%	1%
11	Tanner Ashland Blair, NE	1641 ± 84	49%	19%	6%	1%
5	Kara Galle Omaha, NE	1614 ± 84	66%	7%	2%	<1%
14	Travis Thomas Omaha, NE	1609 ± 82	26%	11%	3%	<1%
12	Ash Preheim Omaha, NE	1561 ± 84	34%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Steve Chilese Omaha, NE	1543 ± 82	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
9	Victor Garcia Omaha, NE	1559 ± 67	26%	4%	<1%	<1%
15	Josh Weatherly Parts Unknown, Earth	1492 ± 69	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
13	Cody Siers Omaha, NE	1498 ± 80	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NEVADA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEVADA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Steve Strom Las Vegas, NV	1727 ± 71	81%	63%	32%	19%
8	David Mosher Sparks, NV	1746 ± 69	64%	39%	25%	17%
2	Tom Neighbors Las Vegas, NV	1711 ± 86	81%	59%	33%	16%
1	Ted McGinty Sparks, NV	1728 ± 63	81%	41%	26%	15%
6	Brad Lamkin Reno, NV	1712 ± 73	66%	39%	23%	11%
3	Richard Jenkins Las Vegas, NV	1696 ± 82	59%	29%	16%	7%
9	Matt Newburg Las Vegas, NV	1695 ± 90	36%	17%	9%	4%
14	Joe Anthes Las Vegas, NV	1671 ± 82	41%	18%	8%	3%
7	Mark Skoff Reno, NV	1646 ± 59	59%	22%	8%	2%
11	Sean Stewart Parts Unknown, Earth	1662 ± 98	34%	15%	6%	2%
5	Craig Sengstock Las Vegas, NV	1637 ± 78	59%	18%	4%	2%
10	Dan Armstrong Reno, NV	1617 ± 67	41%	12%	3%	<1%
13	Brian Mundo Parts Unknown, NV	1611 ± 92	19%	9%	2%	<1%
12	Tony Moore Parts Unknown, Earth	1607 ± 82	41%	10%	2%	<1%
15	Ben Hoak Reno, NV	1598 ± 63	19%	7%	2%	<1%
16	Gilbert Carranza Las Vegas, NV	1612 ± 90	19%	3%	1%	<1%

NEW BRUNSWICK

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW BRUNSWICK
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Pat Herrington Fredericton, NB	1770 ± 94	98%	95%	90%	66%
2	Doug Parsons Beaver Bank, NS	1717 ± 98	94%	77%	58%	23%
3	Dylan Papazian-Clare Fredericton, NB	1655 ± 96	86%	68%	26%	7%
10	John Greatwich Halifax, NS	1609 ± 106	77%	19%	9%	2%
4	Albert Agar London, ON	1566 ± 106	63%	40%	4%	<1%
11	Brandon Baxter Parts Unknown, Earth	1562 ± 108	66%	20%	4%	<1%
8	Rod Beaton Moncton, NB	1550 ± 90	65%	4%	2%	<1%
12	Hayden Agar Parts Unknown, Earth	1542 ± 133	63%	30%	2%	<1%
13	David Dennis Fredericton, NB	1522 ± 96	37%	18%	1%	<1%
6	Jeremy Nowlan Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	34%	6%	<1%	<1%
14	Denny LeClair Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	14%	5%	<1%	<1%
5	Tom MacArthur Saint John, NB	1493 ± 80	37%	12%	<1%	<1%
9	June Madeley Parts Unknown, NB	1499 ± 80	35%	1%	<1%	<1%
7	Alyssa Jones Fredericton, NB	1500 ± 294	23%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Alex Longmire Saint John, NB	1474 ± 122	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Chris Yuill Fredericton, NB	1506 ± 98	6%	2%	<1%	<1%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Brian O’Neill NH Portsmouth, NH	1765 ± 65	98%	89%	75%	59%
2	Seamus Meader Somerville, MA	1695 ± 67	80%	68%	50%	20%
14	Anne Whipple Portsmouth, NH	1635 ± 69	57%	39%	17%	4%
5	Derek Correia Manchester, NH	1641 ± 69	56%	30%	7%	3%
4	Allison O’Neill San Francisco, CA	1640 ± 65	55%	29%	6%	3%
3	Alan Maclean Litchfield, NH	1616 ± 78	43%	27%	11%	2%
13	Michael Corbett MA Ayer, MA	1622 ± 86	45%	21%	4%	2%
12	Zack Murray North Andover, MA	1622 ± 137	44%	20%	4%	2%
6	Chris Brunette Parts Unknown, NH	1588 ± 73	72%	28%	9%	1%
8	Jillian Towne Parts Unknown, NH	1607 ± 69	59%	7%	3%	<1%
7	Keith Maffei Manchester, NH	1577 ± 106	65%	16%	6%	<1%
15	Matt Osborn Derry, NH	1582 ± 108	20%	11%	4%	<1%
9	Ron Lulfs Parts Unknown, Earth	1576 ± 82	41%	4%	1%	<1%
10	Adam Meader Parts Unknown, Earth	1527 ± 63	35%	5%	1%	<1%
11	Matt Lemoine Parts Unknown, Earth	1516 ± 59	28%	6%	<1%	<1%
16	Sam Keogh Malden, MA	1506 ± 61	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NEW JERSEY

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW JERSEY
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Anthony Lambos Jr Hamburg, NJ	1786 ± 57	93%	75%	65%	60%
9	Ken Rossi Somers Point, NJ	1691 ± 65	77%	21%	14%	11%
5	Craig Cash Bloomfield, NJ	1666 ± 57	77%	54%	14%	9%
3	Francesco La Rocca New York, NY	1629 ± 51	60%	37%	23%	5%
2	Robert Salamon Wayne, NJ	1608 ± 47	78%	46%	23%	4%
6	Anthony Lambos Sr Hamburg, NJ	1602 ± 61	60%	28%	15%	2%
14	Dickey Scott Parts Unknown, Earth	1595 ± 55	40%	21%	11%	2%
7	Cate Treese Parts Unknown, NJ	1581 ± 53	50%	24%	11%	1%
4	Joshua Senzer Parts Unknown, Earth	1601 ± 51	53%	20%	3%	1%
10	Russell Davis Hackettstown, NJ	1579 ± 67	50%	24%	10%	1%
13	Joel Zingone Parts Unknown, PA	1590 ± 49	47%	15%	2%	<1%
11	Uchendu Nwachuku New York, NY	1567 ± 49	40%	14%	6%	<1%
8	James Guarino Parts Unknown, NJ	1596 ± 53	23%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Douglas Salamon Parts Unknown, NJ	1574 ± 57	23%	10%	<1%	<1%
16	Todd Dwyer North Brunswick Township, NJ	1587 ± 59	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Drew Greco Parts Unknown, NJ	1508 ± 57	22%	6%	1%	<1%

NEW MEXICO

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW MEXICO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Ben Cressy Albuquerque, NM	1850 ± 104	99%	97%	80%	73%
3	Adam Abeyta Albuquerque, NM	1751 ± 88	67%	58%	16%	11%
8	Jacqueline Bell Parts Unknown, Earth	1692 ± 122	84%	53%	33%	6%
4	Larry McDonald Albuquerque, NM	1672 ± 80	80%	50%	25%	3%
1	Nick Schademann Albuquerque, NM	1661 ± 65	85%	40%	21%	3%
14	Doug McDonald Las Cruces, NM	1692 ± 112	33%	25%	3%	2%
5	Jacob Shattuck Albuquerque, NM	1643 ± 65	58%	27%	12%	1%
12	Brittany Reinhard Albuquerque, NM	1617 ± 141	42%	17%	6%	<1%
11	Curt Jacobson Albuquerque, NM	1608 ± 96	56%	11%	<1%	<1%
9	Bob Buxman Rio Rancho, NM	1562 ± 98	16%	5%	1%	<1%
6	Meghan Shattuck Albuquerque, NM	1589 ± 63	44%	6%	<1%	<1%
7	Erik Skogen Parts Unknown, NM	1586 ± 84	54%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	Lance Bell Santa Fe, NM	1573 ± 102	46%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	Eric Ellis Parts Unknown, NM	1561 ± 104	20%	6%	1%	<1%
16	Noah Trudell Socorro, NM	1522 ± 92	15%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Wes Trudell Tijeras, NM	1520 ± 92	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NEW YORK

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW YORK
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
17	Sean Grant New York, NY	1800 ± 98	93%	62%	54%	37%	26%
2	Adam Cane Parts Unknown, NY	1755 ± 65	100%	58%	36%	23%	11%
4	Alberto Santana New York, NY	1756 ± 55	100%	59%	38%	18%	10%
7	Frank Romero Rockland County, NY	1735 ± 67	100%	76%	35%	20%	9%
1	Zachary Frey Rochester, NY	1748 ± 69	100%	37%	29%	15%	8%
11	Nick Zendejas Northglenn, CO	1737 ± 74	78%	57%	36%	18%	7%
15	Greg Fertel Parts Unknown, NY	1747 ± 94	81%	38%	23%	14%	6%
5	Adam Robinson New York, NY	1724 ± 73	100%	74%	32%	13%	6%
3	Greg Poverelli New York, NY	1710 ± 67	100%	79%	42%	18%	6%
13	Jerry Bernard Patterson, NY	1742 ± 67	87%	40%	24%	11%	6%
6	Ron Hallett Jr. Albany, NY	1657 ± 67	100%	34%	13%	4%	<1%
9	Chris Cafaro New York, NY	1663 ± 78	62%	34%	7%	2%	<1%
8	Andy Cushman North Syracuse, NY	1646 ± 74	100%	51%	8%	2%	<1%
23	Wes Ulfig Parts Unknown, NY	1654 ± 69	53%	14%	3%	1%	<1%
22	Paul Caras New York, NY	1637 ± 67	22%	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
14	Bruce Nightingale Rochester, NY	1622 ± 73	62%	15%	4%	<1%	<1%
21	Christopher CJ Smith Brooklyn, NY	1634 ± 82	47%	12%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	Eric Russell CNY North Syracuse, NY	1642 ± 73	47%	11%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Nitzan Gabai New York, NY	1646 ± 59	53%	14%	3%	<1%	<1%
24	Chewy David Colon Middletown, NY	1624 ± 69	38%	16%	2%	<1%	<1%
18	Stephanie Guida Parts Unknown, Earth	1635 ± 80	19%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Mike Pantino Brooklyn, NY	1581 ± 61	38%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Howard Levine Mountain Dale, NY	1609 ± 55	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Brandon Hoffman New Windsor, NY	1594 ± 55	13%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NORTH CAROLINA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: NORTH CAROLINA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Drew Cedolia Greensboro, NC	1790 ± 69	100%	90%	65%	44%	27%
5	Dwain Marchant King, NC	1772 ± 59	100%	89%	53%	33%	18%
4	Bill Mason Huntersville, NC	1757 ± 51	100%	81%	41%	23%	11%
14	Ovid Dillard Cary, NC	1769 ± 73	71%	43%	35%	18%	10%
1	Tim McCool Seattle, WA	1753 ± 69	100%	61%	40%	19%	9%
3	Jamie Caton Wilmington, NC	1738 ± 67	100%	46%	35%	15%	6%
7	Kaylee Campbell Charlotte, NC	1727 ± 74	100%	68%	25%	13%	5%
9	Jerrod Lankford Raleigh, NC	1735 ± 71	79%	56%	26%	11%	5%
17	Luke Faulkenberry Wilmington, NC	1742 ± 71	74%	34%	21%	9%	4%
22	Liam Bradley Parts Unknown, NC	1680 ± 76	68%	48%	15%	4%	1%
19	Matthew Stapleton Kernersville, NC	1699 ± 57	29%	11%	8%	2%	<1%
8	Joe Bollini Asheville, NC	1666 ± 61	100%	36%	10%	2%	<1%
10	Brian Aiken Raleigh, NC	1676 ± 69	57%	20%	5%	2%	<1%
13	Clint Montgomery Asheville, NC	1660 ± 69	66%	14%	3%	1%	<1%
15	Steve McGinn Asheville, NC	1639 ± 59	77%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
23	Eric Sutton Wilmington, NC	1652 ± 65	43%	12%	2%	<1%	<1%
6	Shawn Scott Smith Asheville, NC	1608 ± 53	100%	35%	5%	<1%	<1%
16	Scott Mott Raleigh, NC	1657 ± 71	26%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
21	Keith J Campbell Asheville, NC	1627 ± 71	66%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
24	David Pfeiffer Asheville, NC	1630 ± 59	21%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
11	Brian Tavener Asheville, NC	1614 ± 61	32%	16%	2%	<1%	<1%
20	Austin Fanger Asheville, NC	1608 ± 57	34%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Adam Bowman Asheville, NC	1573 ± 65	34%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Adam Yates Asheville, NC	1549 ± 51	23%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

OHIO

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: OHIO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	James Scott OH Worthington, OH	1851 ± 69	100%	75%	66%	39%	25%
2	Stephen Prusa Cleveland, OH	1853 ± 63	100%	77%	60%	37%	25%
1	Carlos Delaserda Columbus, OH	1822 ± 55	100%	71%	51%	30%	15%
4	John Delzoppo Cleveland, OH	1808 ± 63	100%	74%	42%	23%	10%
21	Andy Rosa Flint, MI	1811 ± 71	70%	44%	25%	15%	6%
5	Aaron RIch Parts Unknown, Earth	1767 ± 49	100%	43%	19%	8%	2%
19	Andrew Lee Cleveland, OH	1777 ± 84	65%	19%	13%	5%	2%
10	Chad Markham Columbus, OH	1772 ± 80	56%	38%	12%	5%	2%
8	Rod Lawrence Cleveland, OH	1750 ± 65	100%	53%	18%	7%	2%
9	Brian Shepherd Johnstown, OH	1763 ± 74	72%	38%	15%	6%	2%
16	Michael Neuhoff Columbus, OH	1759 ± 82	91%	28%	15%	6%	2%
15	Brian Dodd Berea, OH	1770 ± 65	58%	15%	9%	3%	1%
23	Joel Bergantino Burlington, KY	1750 ± 76	44%	26%	7%	2%	<1%
6	Ross Bergantino Columbus, OH	1715 ± 63	100%	67%	14%	3%	<1%
7	Jack Nebraska Columbus, OH	1716 ± 65	100%	36%	8%	2%	<1%
20	Derek Fugate Jackson, KY	1743 ± 53	60%	18%	7%	3%	<1%
12	Mark Brown OH Cleveland, OH	1744 ± 63	30%	13%	5%	2%	<1%
18	Zak Bowers Cleveland, OH	1743 ± 67	42%	8%	4%	1%	<1%
14	Cody Webb Westerville, OH	1724 ± 57	35%	6%	3%	<1%	<1%
13	Nick Kennedy Plain, OH	1706 ± 61	40%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
11	Amy Kesting Columbus, OH	1670 ± 61	59%	22%	3%	<1%	<1%
24	Matt Gauslin Cincinnati, OH	1685 ± 86	28%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Holly Koskinen Columbus, OH	1642 ± 55	41%	12%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	David Bushea Toledo, OH	1587 ± 55	9%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

OKLAHOMA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: OKLAHOMA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Brian Daniels Broken Arrow, OK	1726 ± 73	95%	61%	43%	25%
2	Austin Trent Oklahoma City, OK	1712 ± 69	91%	55%	30%	17%
6	Craig Aker Stillwater, OK	1720 ± 67	58%	40%	23%	13%
9	Jon Stewart Stillwater, OK	1692 ± 74	59%	25%	15%	7%
10	Adam Nickel Oklahoma City, OK	1691 ± 69	64%	31%	15%	7%
3	Chad Lower Oklahoma City, OK	1678 ± 71	76%	31%	14%	7%
4	Chris Wood Claremore, OK	1672 ± 61	79%	43%	17%	7%
11	Brian Easterwood Tulsa, OK	1692 ± 71	42%	25%	13%	6%
5	Dean St. Onge Newcastle, OK	1660 ± 71	51%	26%	9%	4%
12	Jesse Huber Tulsa, OK	1658 ± 53	49%	25%	8%	3%
8	Gary Broxterman Oklahoma City, OK	1658 ± 73	41%	13%	7%	3%
7	Eric Freimanis Mannford, OK	1645 ± 65	36%	13%	4%	2%
13	Mike Denton Tulsa, OK	1572 ± 65	21%	5%	<1%	<1%
14	Chris Kircher Tulsa, OK	1587 ± 61	24%	4%	1%	<1%
15	Jared Ferree Bartlesville, OK	1539 ± 73	9%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Brian Turnpaugh Tulsa, OK	1506 ± 71	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%

ONTARIO

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: ONTARIO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Adam Becker Keswick, ON	1747 ± 55	100%	75%	57%	39%	27%
4	Jeff Teolis Burlington, ON	1712 ± 55	100%	75%	48%	31%	16%
1	Mike Savage Toronto, ON	1686 ± 55	100%	81%	53%	26%	12%
12	John Flitton Mount Albert, ON	1697 ± 65	77%	56%	30%	18%	8%
3	Carter Casselman Ottawa, ON	1694 ± 67	100%	58%	35%	16%	8%
6	Zeus Manolis Scarborough, ON	1680 ± 57	100%	81%	38%	16%	8%
7	Mike Dymus London, ON	1669 ± 61	100%	66%	22%	10%	5%
14	Nick Greenen Kitchener, ON	1687 ± 55	80%	38%	22%	9%	5%
15	Steven Machado Mississauga, ON	1676 ± 63	71%	21%	12%	6%	3%
8	Justin Martins Mississauga, ON	1641 ± 65	100%	56%	24%	9%	3%
9	Barry Brdar Mississauga, ON	1636 ± 63	62%	30%	12%	4%	1%
13	Shaun Russell Saint Thomas, Earth	1640 ± 57	69%	21%	9%	4%	1%
5	Shane Jackson Toronto, ON	1619 ± 53	100%	33%	10%	4%	<1%
10	Jeff Jefford Toronto, ON	1631 ± 55	67%	26%	6%	2%	<1%
24	Traceley Young Toronto, ON	1600 ± 65	38%	15%	5%	1%	<1%
16	Laura Edward Toronto, ON	1590 ± 51	69%	15%	5%	1%	<1%
21	John Zaharatos Mississauga, ON	1604 ± 74	23%	11%	2%	1%	<1%
18	Chris Moxley Kitchener, ON	1604 ± 53	29%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	Doug Baird Mississauga, ON	1582 ± 57	70%	16%	3%	<1%	<1%
20	Joe Ciaravino Toronto, ON	1577 ± 59	31%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
19	Walt Morose Toronto, ON	1580 ± 69	20%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
23	Jason Hamel La Salette, ON	1577 ± 65	33%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Mike Casselman Ottawa, ON	1524 ± 71	31%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Donna Wai Oshawa, ON	1513 ± 59	30%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

OREGON

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: OREGON
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	Colin Urban Portland, OR	1881 ± 86	100%	96%	71%	62%	53%
13	Daniel Rone Portland, OR	1820 ± 61	95%	72%	24%	18%	13%
7	Dana Valatka Portland, OR	1764 ± 69	100%	82%	47%	34%	10%
2	Billy Brown III Parts Unknown, Earth	1760 ± 65	100%	75%	41%	28%	8%
1	Ken Martin Coatsville, PA	1749 ± 61	100%	70%	40%	9%	5%
8	Matt Walton Eugene, OR	1743 ± 73	100%	76%	40%	8%	4%
3	Mathew Peterson Portland, OR	1704 ± 55	100%	74%	41%	15%	2%
11	Scott Benoit Portland, OR	1697 ± 59	84%	47%	25%	9%	1%
4	Adam Jones Eugene, OR	1728 ± 67	100%	27%	4%	2%	<1%
6	Derek Jennings Portland, OR	1676 ± 65	100%	49%	24%	7%	<1%
16	James Adamson Portland, OR	1698 ± 57	81%	28%	12%	1%	<1%
15	Hayden Harker Eugene, OR	1674 ± 73	52%	13%	4%	2%	<1%
9	Jeff Monroe Eugene, OR	1668 ± 71	83%	23%	7%	<1%	<1%
18	Erik Graciosa Portland, OR	1669 ± 59	48%	12%	3%	1%	<1%
14	David Morell Parts Unknown, Earth	1632 ± 57	58%	17%	6%	1%	<1%
10	Paul Robertson Portland, OR	1659 ± 63	66%	14%	4%	2%	<1%
12	Casey Shutes Eugene, OR	1661 ± 59	75%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Darren Dorman Eugene, OR	1570 ± 71	16%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Sam Van Rooy Eugene, OR	1608 ± 67	42%	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
20	Mark Humphrey Parts Unknown, OR	1610 ± 57	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Brianne Hunt Portland, OR	1574 ± 63	25%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Sunni Williams Eugene, OR	1588 ± 53	19%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	William Kerney Portland, OR	1604 ± 65	34%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Jonathan Duncan Eugene, OR	1545 ± 63	17%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

PENNSYLVANIA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: PENNSYLVANIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Aleksander Kaczmarczyk Parts Unknown, PA	1844 ± 82	100%	89%	81%	70%	59%
13	David Riel Pittsburgh, PA	1750 ± 76	98%	74%	56%	39%	14%
2	Lewis Bevans Pittsburgh, PA	1727 ± 73	100%	69%	46%	12%	6%
1	Robbie Orsino Lansdale, PA	1709 ± 59	100%	55%	39%	19%	5%
11	Greg DeFeo Pittsburgh, PA	1696 ± 80	83%	63%	11%	5%	2%
7	Cliff Albert Parts Unknown, PA	1683 ± 61	100%	65%	28%	5%	2%
17	Evan Bookbinder Pittsburgh, PA	1699 ± 74	54%	26%	17%	8%	2%
14	Brian Bower Pittsburgh, PA	1697 ± 74	90%	11%	7%	3%	1%
12	Dave Lancaster Pittsburgh, PA	1678 ± 74	60%	34%	12%	6%	1%
5	Jared Schmidt Pittsburgh, PA	1656 ± 69	100%	47%	14%	6%	1%
16	Tim Tournay Pittsburgh, PA	1682 ± 82	46%	19%	12%	5%	<1%
18	Nathan Eppley New Cumberland, PA	1681 ± 73	65%	23%	12%	2%	<1%
8	Corey Hulse Schwenksville, PA	1643 ± 63	100%	56%	19%	6%	<1%
4	Daniel Gilbert Trappe, PA	1657 ± 67	100%	26%	13%	5%	<1%
9	Tony Makowski Lansdale, PA	1638 ± 73	89%	43%	13%	4%	<1%
10	Gary Hartz Pittsburgh, PA	1650 ± 67	65%	26%	9%	1%	<1%
21	Fred Cochran Pittsburgh, PA	1644 ± 90	40%	19%	5%	2%	<1%
6	Nathaniel Gibson Royersford, PA	1611 ± 63	100%	31%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Logan Sauers Parkersburg, WV	1631 ± 69	35%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
23	Sarah Kwiecien Pittsburgh, PA	1600 ± 74	35%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Dennis Gilbert Royersford, PA	1571 ± 71	17%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Stephen Haberman Collegeville, PA	1490 ± 73	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Terri Morton Chesterbrook, PA	1527 ± 73	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Guy Merrill Pottstown, PA	1484 ± 53	11%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

QUEBEC

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: QUEBEC
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Ben Dowie Montreal, QC	1709 ± 90	82%	52%	40%	30%
10	Lucien Robitaille Parts Unknown, Earth	1679 ± 120	72%	34%	24%	16%
13	Steve Tremblay Ottawa, ON	1643 ± 65	59%	38%	24%	10%
3	Francis Lavoie Gravel Montreal, QC	1629 ± 88	95%	58%	19%	10%
1	Jonathan Dubreuil Montreal, QC	1628 ± 61	71%	49%	25%	10%
5	David Bourque Parts Unknown, Earth	1621 ± 71	73%	34%	20%	8%
4	Benoit Bisson Montreal, QC	1613 ± 76	41%	22%	12%	4%
11	Pat Lampron Montreal, QC	1601 ± 96	52%	23%	6%	3%
6	Adam Kiesler Montreal, QC	1592 ± 129	48%	19%	5%	2%
8	Jacques Issa Montreal, QC	1572 ± 94	54%	21%	7%	2%
7	James parsons Montreal, QC	1601 ± 80	28%	7%	3%	1%
15	Christophe Blondel CAN Montreal, QC	1594 ± 84	18%	6%	3%	1%
9	Jean-Michel St-Aubin Montreal, QC	1558 ± 88	46%	16%	5%	1%
16	David Bergeron Parts Unknown, Earth	1555 ± 92	29%	14%	4%	<1%
12	Adam Brown CAN Montreal, QC	1539 ± 90	27%	7%	2%	<1%
14	Johnny Crap Montreal, QC	1407 ± 112	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%

RHODE ISLAND

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: RHODE ISLAND
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Nick DeStefano Holliston, MA	1698 ± 71	90%	85%	69%	43%
1	Ed Giardina Providence, RI	1675 ± 82	94%	91%	60%	32%
4	James McFatter Canton, MA	1642 ± 80	98%	79%	35%	15%
3	Matt Petrarca Johnston, RI	1610 ± 116	65%	43%	14%	5%
11	Erik Haynes Boston, MA	1571 ± 123	65%	29%	7%	2%
14	Lucas Herter Boston, MA	1561 ± 69	35%	18%	4%	<1%
5	Aaron Ciardullo Stonington, CT	1538 ± 92	88%	20%	4%	<1%
15	Chris Harvey Westport, MA	1535 ± 78	10%	7%	3%	<1%
6	Justin Fontaine Parts Unknown, RI	1521 ± 161	35%	10%	2%	<1%
10	Jack Shanahan Taunton, MA	1480 ± 133	51%	4%	<1%	<1%
7	Carl Dupree Providence, RI	1478 ± 122	49%	4%	<1%	<1%
16	Stephanie Harvey Westport, PA	1466 ± 76	6%	4%	<1%	<1%
9	Dave Rabinowitz North Attleborough, MA	1442 ± 104	59%	4%	<1%	<1%
8	Amber Lee RI Providence, RI	1412 ± 67	41%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Max Giardina Providence, RI	1358 ± 116	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Tom Geary Parts Unknown, MA	1382 ± 76	12%	<1%	<1%	<1%

SASKATCHEWAN

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: SASKATCHEWAN
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Bob Rhinelander Regina, SK	1766 ± 65	89%	80%	60%	37%
1	Shaun Amos Regina, SK	1763 ± 65	89%	72%	54%	32%
3	Lance Wormsbecker Regina, SK	1707 ± 80	87%	70%	29%	14%
4	Matt Wason Regina, SK	1698 ± 69	67%	44%	18%	7%
9	Regan Mroske Regina, SK	1668 ± 86	71%	20%	10%	4%
5	Josh Pidskalny Parts Unknown, Earth	1661 ± 143	70%	32%	10%	3%
13	Colby Hansen Regina, SK	1641 ± 94	33%	17%	4%	1%
10	Dustin Geib Regina, SK	1611 ± 82	67%	11%	4%	<1%
6	Jamie Cossar Regina, SK	1604 ± 86	65%	18%	3%	<1%
15	Dion Bowman Regina, SK	1609 ± 88	11%	6%	2%	<1%
8	Mike Swanson Weyburn, SK	1599 ± 65	29%	4%	1%	<1%
16	Adam Wason Regina, SK	1599 ± 71	11%	4%	1%	<1%
12	Brennon Patterson Regina, SK	1593 ± 67	30%	8%	1%	<1%
14	Meghan Pryor Regina, SK	1561 ± 71	13%	6%	<1%	<1%
11	Jason Tiefenbach Regina, SK	1554 ± 106	35%	6%	<1%	<1%
7	Troy Denet Saskatoon, SK	1554 ± 114	33%	3%	<1%	<1%

SOUTH CAROLINA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: SOUTH CAROLINA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Chad Patz Charleston, SC	1762 ± 74	85%	66%	39%	24%
8	Fred Richardson Columbia, SC	1750 ± 88	81%	54%	33%	17%
2	Nate Grant Pelzer, SC	1754 ± 71	80%	51%	29%	17%
13	Sammie Bacon Reidsville, NC	1747 ± 63	69%	52%	29%	15%
7	Lenny Lipkin New York, NY	1727 ± 73	71%	34%	17%	9%
1	Ken Grant Pelzer, SC	1712 ± 53	75%	34%	18%	7%
6	David Benke Charleston, SC	1677 ± 65	65%	21%	7%	2%
4	Todd Reynolds Parts Unknown, Earth	1684 ± 55	31%	18%	7%	2%
12	Tony Evans Columbia, SC	1668 ± 69	55%	18%	6%	2%
5	Marcelo Campos Hazan Parts Unknown, SC	1651 ± 69	45%	13%	4%	<1%
10	Scott Smith SC Duncan, SC	1654 ± 94	29%	8%	3%	<1%
11	Pete Gaspich Simpsonville, SC	1628 ± 61	35%	8%	2%	<1%
15	Brett Smith SC Columbia, SC	1644 ± 67	20%	6%	2%	<1%
16	Bryan Merritt Woodruff, SC	1628 ± 67	25%	6%	2%	<1%
14	David Kitch III Taylors, SC	1625 ± 84	15%	6%	1%	<1%
9	Will King Ridgeville, SC	1638 ± 76	19%	7%	2%	<1%

SOUTH DAKOTA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: SOUTH DAKOTA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Jason Lanpher Parts Unknown, Earth	1818 ± 108	98%	94%	90%	54%
1	Dan Dolney Cottage Grove, MN	1818 ± 86	84%	83%	70%	39%
4	Bernie Berg Sioux Falls, SD	1699 ± 94	92%	83%	21%	5%
16	Tylar Dormaier Parts Unknown, Earth	1689 ± 141	16%	15%	8%	2%
10	Dan Eide Parts Unknown, Earth	1613 ± 112	79%	62%	6%	<1%
6	Nick Person Parts Unknown, Earth	1591 ± 114	51%	3%	1%	<1%
11	Ryan Haugan Parts Unknown, Earth	1587 ± 114	49%	3%	1%	<1%
7	Bryan Fodness Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	21%	11%	<1%	<1%
14	Matt Paysen Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Brad Eleeson Sioux Falls, SD	1500 ± 294	51%	14%	<1%	<1%
2	Ryan Nelson Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	49%	14%	<1%	<1%
12	Tyler Hall Parts Unknown, Earth	1527 ± 114	58%	8%	<1%	<1%
13	Kasey Wheeler Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	8%	4%	<1%	<1%
5	Michael Winne Sioux Falls, SD	1500 ± 294	42%	5%	<1%	<1%
8	Mitchell Muske Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	50%	1%	<1%	<1%
9	Dustin Staadt Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	50%	1%	<1%	<1%

TENNESSEE

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: TENNESSEE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Jason Wilson TN Smyrna, TN	1809 ± 63	100%	93%	81%	52%	37%
5	Phil Zimmerman Nashville, TN	1788 ± 63	100%	87%	74%	38%	24%
2	matt majewski Nashville, TN	1756 ± 63	100%	72%	56%	30%	13%
3	Tanner Wade Bartlett, TN	1759 ± 55	100%	75%	45%	28%	12%
11	Tyler Coe Parts Unknown, Earth	1747 ± 63	87%	55%	29%	17%	6%
6	Matthew Malkus Nashville, TN	1706 ± 63	100%	42%	17%	8%	2%
18	Aaron Williams Murfreesboro, TN	1696 ± 71	72%	23%	14%	5%	1%
4	Brandon Brocius Nashville, TN	1664 ± 59	100%	57%	13%	2%	<1%
10	Scott Woods Jonesboro, AR	1674 ± 55	63%	35%	11%	3%	<1%
7	Ian Cushman Nashville, TN	1660 ± 63	100%	50%	14%	4%	<1%
8	Caleb Dirks Nashville, TN	1655 ± 65	100%	48%	7%	2%	<1%
9	Justin Fitzgerald Columbia, TN	1671 ± 61	58%	32%	6%	2%	<1%
14	Casey Reed Nashville, TN	1678 ± 63	52%	13%	5%	2%	<1%
19	George Xayachack Murfreesboro, TN	1671 ± 76	48%	12%	4%	2%	<1%
12	Tyler Campbell Nashville, TN	1659 ± 55	80%	12%	6%	1%	<1%
13	Justin Dority Nashville, TN	1649 ± 76	56%	25%	5%	<1%	<1%
16	Kevin Hale Memphis, TN	1630 ± 53	66%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
24	Richard Rickman Parts Unknown, TN	1645 ± 51	42%	20%	3%	<1%	<1%
23	Glenn Waechter Nashville, TN	1634 ± 71	37%	16%	3%	<1%	<1%
20	Colton Morgan Memphis, TN	1628 ± 57	44%	18%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Daniel Curran Nashville, TN	1622 ± 61	28%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
17	Zach Fetherling Nashville, TN	1579 ± 67	34%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Austin Carrigan Smyrna, TN	1553 ± 61	20%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Jay Trask Paris, TN	1604 ± 61	13%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

TEXAS

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: TEXAS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Wesley Johnson College Station, TX	1846 ± 59	100%	82%	59%	36%	19%
14	Brian Krivonak Corpus Christi, TX	1853 ± 57	87%	62%	50%	31%	17%
9	Jim Mueller Houston, TX	1864 ± 67	96%	68%	44%	27%	17%
4	Robert Byers Austin, TX	1838 ± 61	100%	79%	47%	24%	13%
1	Phil Grimaldi Houston, TX	1829 ± 63	100%	83%	39%	20%	11%
12	Colin MacAlpine Austin, TX	1832 ± 53	81%	49%	27%	13%	7%
7	Lee Balusek Conroe, TX	1785 ± 57	100%	70%	26%	11%	4%
5	Garrett Shahan Denton, TX	1797 ± 71	100%	46%	20%	8%	3%
3	Kevin Rodriguez Denton, TX	1786 ± 63	100%	35%	23%	10%	3%
8	Jack revnew The Woodlands, TX	1794 ± 59	100%	32%	15%	6%	2%
11	Ben Whittington The Woodlands, TX	1760 ± 63	67%	39%	12%	4%	1%
6	Ken Kemp Collinsville, TX	1734 ± 59	100%	48%	12%	3%	<1%
10	Fred Revnew The Woodlands, TX	1735 ± 59	77%	27%	7%	2%	<1%
15	Craig Squires The Woodlands, TX	1738 ± 59	57%	11%	5%	1%	<1%
20	Gilbert Herrera San Antonio, TX	1729 ± 65	49%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
13	Austin Kemp Collinsville, TX	1730 ± 69	51%	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Warren Joe Fort Worth, TX	1717 ± 73	60%	12%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Ray Ford Austin, TX	1704 ± 71	13%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
18	David Pollock Conroe, TX	1715 ± 57	43%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Keith Shahan Abilene, TX	1705 ± 67	33%	13%	2%	<1%	<1%
21	Hunter Reed Conroe, TX	1714 ± 65	19%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	Chris Geist Arlington, TX	1683 ± 65	40%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	Cory Westfahl Houston, TX	1644 ± 57	23%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Eric Heskett Houston, TX	1636 ± 69	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

UTAH

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: UTAH
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Kelly Thomson Salt Lake City, UT	1736 ± 82	76%	57%	34%	20%
2	Nate Smith CO North Ogden, UT	1726 ± 73	81%	53%	31%	18%
8	Mike Lund Salt Lake City, UT	1733 ± 74	74%	50%	29%	17%
5	Josh Craig Salt Lake City, UT	1725 ± 71	65%	38%	22%	12%
4	Spencer Imboden Salt Lake City, UT	1710 ± 84	61%	32%	16%	8%
7	Nick Stone Layton, UT	1696 ± 92	73%	34%	17%	8%
1	Dan Newman Sandy, UT	1687 ± 65	81%	34%	15%	6%
6	Mark Laird Orem, UT	1659 ± 63	59%	20%	7%	3%
12	Marc Jackson South Jordan, UT	1676 ± 69	35%	15%	6%	3%
13	Julian Conrads Salt Lake City, UT	1673 ± 80	39%	16%	6%	2%
9	Logan Smith CO Parts Unknown, Earth	1649 ± 51	26%	12%	4%	1%
14	michael eccleston Salt Lake City, UT	1646 ± 88	24%	12%	4%	1%
11	Nick Tinker Salt Lake City, UT	1627 ± 102	41%	11%	3%	<1%
10	James Hadden Salt Lake City, UT	1616 ± 69	27%	7%	2%	<1%
15	Phil Labrum Salt Lake City, UT	1615 ± 61	19%	6%	1%	<1%
16	Mike Taylor Salt Lake City, UT	1576 ± 63	19%	3%	<1%	<1%

VERMONT

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: VERMONT
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Connor Shlatz Burlington, VT	1650 ± 78	91%	61%	43%	25%
2	Mike Havens South Burlington, VT	1642 ± 73	77%	50%	29%	16%
6	Jody Stahlman Parts Unknown, VT	1646 ± 67	58%	40%	23%	14%
3	Bill McHugh Parts Unknown, VT	1604 ± 80	78%	32%	15%	7%
7	Nathan Crosby Montpelier, VT	1608 ± 86	68%	32%	15%	7%
11	Ben Bonaccio Burlington, VT	1619 ± 98	42%	25%	12%	6%
8	Matt Schroeder South Burlington, VT	1599 ± 94	55%	22%	12%	6%
13	Matt Saltus Parts Unknown, Earth	1590 ± 96	54%	30%	12%	5%
5	Kris LaCross Colchester, VT	1583 ± 80	58%	29%	11%	4%
4	Eric Marz Williston, VT	1576 ± 88	46%	24%	8%	3%
9	Preston Francisco Parts Unknown, VT	1583 ± 88	45%	15%	8%	3%
12	Jamie MacLeish Burlington, VT	1557 ± 143	42%	17%	5%	1%
10	Tim Neilson Charlotte, VT	1547 ± 102	32%	9%	3%	<1%
15	Mark Dabelstein Burlington, VT	1546 ± 94	23%	9%	2%	<1%
14	Emily May Hamden, CT	1504 ± 92	22%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Allison Havens Parts Unknown, VT	1476 ± 76	9%	2%	<1%	<1%

VIRGINIA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: VIRGINIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
7	Austin Mackert Fairfax, VA	1867 ± 82	100%	97%	80%	69%	55%
4	Bryan Henson Sterling, VA	1791 ± 78	100%	84%	72%	57%	23%
2	Brian Garbera Midlothian, VA	1755 ± 74	100%	67%	15%	9%	5%
19	Dale Geiger Parts Unknown, VA	1750 ± 74	79%	55%	32%	8%	4%
11	Kevin Stone McLean, VA	1741 ± 96	79%	45%	26%	6%	3%
1	Kevin Kuntz Richmond, VA	1699 ± 74	100%	61%	39%	14%	2%
6	Edan Grossman Fairfax, VA	1715 ± 67	100%	49%	24%	4%	2%
9	Matt DeWorken Richmond, VA	1681 ± 69	69%	45%	22%	6%	1%
5	Rob Pannell Richmond, VA	1676 ± 69	100%	61%	14%	7%	<1%
18	David Horner Fairfax, VA	1714 ± 82	82%	31%	4%	2%	<1%
16	Ryan Hardy Ashburn, VA	1681 ± 78	67%	29%	18%	5%	<1%
3	Scott Searcy Richmond, VA	1682 ± 55	100%	36%	13%	2%	<1%
13	Scott Durfee Midlothian, VA	1676 ± 84	70%	14%	8%	4%	<1%
21	Raymond Fauber Richmond, VA	1652 ± 76	60%	26%	5%	2%	<1%
8	Robert Peters Richmond, VA	1628 ± 57	100%	41%	14%	2%	<1%
17	Clark Fraley Richmond, VA	1626 ± 65	33%	9%	4%	<1%	<1%
24	Christopher Morgan Richmond, VA	1616 ± 63	31%	14%	4%	<1%	<1%
14	Francis Cooke King George, VA	1647 ± 55	21%	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
12	Michael Tyler Montross, VA	1621 ± 63	40%	13%	2%	<1%	<1%
23	Daniel Purdy Charlottesville, VA	1629 ± 90	57%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Avery Pierce Richmond, VA	1636 ± 71	21%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	Allen Foglesong Midlothian, VA	1607 ± 59	43%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Dave Weaver Richmond, VA	1606 ± 65	30%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Laura Fraley Richmond, VA	1594 ± 51	18%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

WASHINGTON

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: WASHINGTON
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Lonnie Langford Seattle, WA	1831 ± 71	100%	79%	57%	42%	30%
1	Germain Mariolle Redmond, WA	1782 ± 65	100%	77%	51%	30%	14%
5	Sean Irby Seattle, WA	1770 ± 59	100%	76%	45%	25%	11%
6	Richie Terry Seattle, WA	1774 ± 67	100%	74%	48%	20%	11%
23	Joshua Francis Edmonds, WA	1789 ± 55	73%	62%	27%	16%	10%
9	Cayle George Seattle, WA	1762 ± 73	77%	58%	30%	16%	7%
4	Dave Stewart Carnation, WA	1739 ± 53	100%	52%	24%	11%	4%
3	Maka Honig Seattle, WA	1735 ± 55	100%	58%	25%	8%	3%
13	Jarrett Gaddy Seattle, WA	1746 ± 59	60%	31%	16%	7%	3%
14	Neal Joslyn Bremerton, WA	1726 ± 51	84%	39%	16%	5%	2%
18	Jaran Jones Seattle, WA	1745 ± 59	65%	16%	8%	4%	2%
11	Conrad Rustad Bremerton, WA	1709 ± 57	70%	22%	9%	2%	<1%
20	David Chernicoff Seattle, WA	1715 ± 71	40%	17%	6%	2%	<1%
10	Chris Chinn Seattle, WA	1710 ± 49	27%	18%	4%	1%	<1%
8	John Robinson WA Bothell, Earth	1673 ± 63	100%	31%	8%	2%	<1%
17	Max Davidoff Seattle, WA	1694 ± 63	57%	15%	6%	2%	<1%
12	Michael Rausch Seattle, WA	1689 ± 73	61%	16%	6%	2%	<1%
15	Vincent Sperrazza Bremerton, WA	1695 ± 57	35%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
7	Alex Singleterry Parts Unknown, Earth	1659 ± 55	100%	21%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Chris Borgstadt Parts Unknown, Earth	1669 ± 51	43%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
24	Andrew McCann Bremerton, WA	1666 ± 49	23%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
21	Ashley Weaver Renton, WA	1658 ± 59	39%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Matthew Harjo Seattle, WA	1643 ± 59	30%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
19	Stephen Donaldson Seattle, WA	1597 ± 57	16%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

WEST VIRGINIA

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: WEST VIRGINIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Aaron Metz Beckley, WV	1853 ± 139	99%	95%	77%	64%
2	Brian Dye Morgantown, WV	1753 ± 65	98%	86%	22%	14%
4	Chris Wamsley New Albany, OH	1729 ± 63	90%	64%	35%	9%
8	Jim Seward Columbus, OH	1728 ± 88	91%	60%	34%	9%
1	Ben Landreth Morgantown, WV	1685 ± 80	91%	38%	17%	3%
5	Pete Hendricks Washington, PA	1676 ± 61	78%	31%	12%	2%
3	Andy Pickens Fairmont, WV	1615 ± 69	52%	3%	<1%	<1%
7	Michael Detch Parts Unknown, Earth	1619 ± 131	72%	12%	<1%	<1%
14	John Thwaite Washington, PA	1609 ± 67	48%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Mitch Reece Parts Unknown, Earth	1576 ± 98	22%	4%	<1%	<1%
11	Brian Pickens Morgantown, WV	1550 ± 90	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
9	Mike Detch Parts Unknown, Earth	1552 ± 82	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	Mark Caravasos Morgantown, WV	1542 ± 82	28%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Kody Elam Morgantown, WV	1559 ± 98	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Sandy Graver Pittsburgh, PA	1508 ± 82	9%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Sal Sulick Morgantown, WV	1465 ± 74	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

WISCONSIN

2022 IFPA NACS Predictions: WISCONSIN
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Escher Lefkoff Parts Unknown, CO	1904 ± 55	100%	93%	88%	79%	62%
6	Josh Sharpe Arlington Heights, IL	1820 ± 51	100%	89%	64%	38%	13%
15	Zach Sharpe Chicago, IL	1818 ± 57	87%	47%	38%	22%	8%
2	Neil Graf Appleton, WI	1805 ± 53	100%	51%	40%	21%	7%
4	Jason Werdrick Park Ridge, IL	1768 ± 57	100%	60%	42%	8%	3%
3	David Daluga Milwaukee, WI	1755 ± 59	100%	62%	23%	9%	2%
20	Tim Sexton Chicago, IL	1754 ± 49	69%	31%	20%	4%	1%
8	Erik Thoren De Pere, WI	1713 ± 49	100%	70%	7%	3%	<1%
14	Jordan Semrow Seattle, WA	1732 ± 69	69%	31%	9%	3%	<1%
7	Tom Graf Appleton, WI	1709 ± 51	100%	54%	11%	3%	<1%
17	Ryan Spindler Oregon, WI	1723 ± 57	76%	6%	4%	2%	<1%
10	Drew Geigel Manitowoc, WI	1716 ± 71	72%	38%	9%	3%	<1%
12	Eric Strangeway Oshkosh, WI	1720 ± 51	51%	30%	11%	2%	<1%
21	sheldon olson Sussex, WI	1716 ± 61	49%	30%	11%	1%	<1%
5	Kassidy Milanowski Appleton, WI	1685 ± 57	100%	40%	12%	<1%	<1%
9	Erik Rentmeester Green Bay, WI	1666 ± 53	73%	25%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	Matt McCarty Neenah, WI	1670 ± 45	54%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Andrew Kasten Green Bay, WI	1668 ± 63	31%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	Mike Weyenberg Manitowoc, WI	1693 ± 51	31%	9%	4%	<1%	<1%
22	Jim Radovich Milwaukee, WI	1655 ± 53	46%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
23	Brian Leuthner De Pere, WI	1644 ± 51	28%	9%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	Michael Reiman Green Bay, WI	1631 ± 55	24%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Timothy Enders Madison, WI	1674 ± 74	13%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Mike Schlumpf Green Bay, WI	1589 ± 51	27%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%

country	name	link
UK	BBC	website
US	CNN	website

About

The above predictions are created by leveraging the excellent ratings provided by matchplay.events, which are an implementation of the glicko rating system. For those unfamiliar, ratings are a way of measuring the skill of a player. The ratings are estimated by making predictions about the outcome of each match, observing the outcome, then updating the ratings accordingly.

Importantly, the ratings intrinsically provide the ability to make predictions about a match. For example, if a player with a rating of 1904 plays another player with a rating of 1660, player 1 has an 80.2% chance of winning that game. (\(\frac{1}{1+10^{-(1904-1660)}}=.802\)). Once we know the likelihood of an outcome we can simulate a best-of-7 series by essentially flipping a weighted coin seven times, where the coin is weighted by the probability we previously determined. The player with 4 or more wins, will take the series and advance to the next round. Then we play out the whole bracket in this manner until a winner is crowned. Of course, this only gives us one possible outcome. So we repeat the whole process 10,000 times and summarize the results. Thus the tables above are essentially the percent of times in the 10,000 simulations that a player achieved that level of performance.

Naturally the predictions are only as good as the ratings themselves. While ratings in theory should eventually converge on a players “true” rating, in practice this is rarely true. Players who don’t play in tournaments run by matchplay won’t have as much data. Stronger players that play in a lot of local tournaments will tend to have ratings that are higher than they probably truly are. As a result, you may seem some players have higher/lower odds than seems likely.

Hope you enjoy, and please let me know if anything seems wrong.

This page has no affiliation with the IFPA or matchplay. It was made entirely in the spirit of learning and fun.