2023 IFPA North American Championship Series Predictions

Note: these predictions are provided purely for entertainment, and should not be used for gambling, decision making, or anything of consequence. Please let me know if you know if you notice any errors or irregularities.
Updated Friday Jan 19

How these predictions are made

Overall

2023 IFPA NACS Favorites
Chances of winning state finals
state	Player (Seed)	MP Rating	WIN CHANCE
Alabama	Scott Mount (4) Auburn, AL	1810 ± 78	38%
Alberta	John Kottmann (1) Calgary, AB	1772 ± 65	25%
Arizona	Will McKinney (10) Phoenix, AZ	1824 ± 78	26%
Arkansas	Mike Malone (5) Fayetteville, AR	1714 ± 84	17%
British Columbia	Sara Little (2) Vancouver, BC	1824 ± 67	36%
California	raymond ashby (5) Los Angeles, CA	1859 ± 74	25%
Colorado	Walt Wood (1) Englewood, CO	1906 ± 59	72%
Connecticut	Tyler Aas (1) Vernon, CT	1712 ± 69	31%
Delaware	Jason Zahler (2) Parts Unknown, NJ	1887 ± 73	61%
District of Columbia	David Barber (2) Manassas, VA	1718 ± 82	27%
Florida	Eric Stone (1) Fort Myers, FL	1955 ± 73	69%
Georgia	Dalton Ely (2) Rockmart, GA	1872 ± 69	78%
Idaho	Xyren Silvers (11) Boise, ID	1757 ± 84	48%
Illinois	Zach McCarthy (21) Conifer, CO	1876 ± 74	30%
Indiana	Tommy Skinner (15) Lafayette, IN	1781 ± 67	26%
Iowa	Sawyer Herweh (8) Des Moines, IA	1785 ± 102	36%
Kansas	Phil Cridlebaugh (4) Kansas City, KS	1830 ± 76	29%
Kentucky	Sean Davis (1) Louisville, KY	1793 ± 80	39%
Louisiana	Allen Robertson (2) Sour Lake, TX	1711 ± 100	37%
Maine	Daniel Rone (6) Revere, MA	1763 ± 53	39%
Manitoba	Drew Sych (1) Winnipeg, MB	1778 ± 67	45%
Maryland	Douglas M Malcolm (4) Chevy Chase, MD	1803 ± 74	32%
Massachusetts	Bowen Kerins (8) Salem, MA	1865 ± 67	64%
Michigan	Alex Harmon (6) Spring Lake, MI	1811 ± 94	21%
Minnesota	Mark Larson (9) Parts Unknown, Earth	1839 ± 76	42%
Mississippi	Nick Mueller (10) Parts Unknown, FL	1798 ± 86	53%
Missouri	John Miller MO (1) St. Louis, MO	1824 ± 67	33%
Montana	John Carls (2) Missoula, MT	1716 ± 65	51%
Nebraska	Tiler Hall (3) Omaha, NE	1811 ± 100	47%
Nevada	Steve Strom (6) Las Vegas, NV	1818 ± 73	39%
New Brunswick	Chris Yuill (2) Fredericton, NB	1629 ± 106	24%
New Hampshire	Brian O'Neill NH (1) Portsmouth, NH	1734 ± 53	38%
New Jersey	Anthony Lambos Jr (1) Hamburg, NJ	1814 ± 57	71%
New Mexico	Matt Wilson (6) Evanston, IL	1750 ± 80	22%
New York	Dante Oliva (9) Raleigh, NC	1842 ± 82	46%
North Carolina	Drew Cedolia (4) Greensboro, NC	1890 ± 84	44%
North Dakota	Brett Wollschlaeger (4) Parts Unknown, ND	1753 ± 129	50%
Nova Scotia	Riley MacDonald (1) Parts Unknown, NS	1721 ± 112	45%
Ohio	Stephen Prusa (2) Cleveland, OH	1894 ± 59	45%
Oklahoma	Travis Murie (10) Oklahoma City, OK	1809 ± 71	22%
Ontario	Mike Savage (1) Toronto, ON	1758 ± 61	36%
Oregon	Colin Urban (5) Portland, OR	1877 ± 76	53%
Pennsylvania	Lewis Bevans (6) Pittsburgh, PA	1831 ± 65	35%
Quebec	Ben Dowie (3) Montreal, QC	1751 ± 100	32%
Rhode Island	Nick DeStefano (6) Holliston, MA	1772 ± 74	25%
Saskatchewan	Shaun Amos (1) Regina, SK	1815 ± 76	53%
South Carolina	Nate Grant (1) Pelzer, SC	1809 ± 71	38%
South Dakota	Dan Dolney (1) Sioux Falls, SD	1803 ± 84	49%
Tennessee	matt majewski (6) Nashville, TN	1767 ± 65	20%
Texas	Colin MacAlpine (14) Austin, TX	1891 ± 80	19%
Utah	Marc Jackson (5) South Jordan, UT	1784 ± 69	35%
Vermont	Carter Casselman (9) Ottawa, ON	1728 ± 88	34%
Virginia	Bryan Henson (4) Sterling, VA	1845 ± 98	33%
Washington	Jarrett Gaddy (5) Seattle, WA	1800 ± 61	18%
West Virginia	Aaron Metz (3) Beckley, WV	1794 ± 141	61%
Wisconsin	Luke Nahorniak (1) Lonsdale, MN	1808 ± 49	20%

By state/province

ALABAMA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: ALABAMA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Scott Mount Auburn, AL	1810 ± 78	81%	72%	51%	38%
3	Timothy Street Parts Unknown, Earth	1750 ± 73	94%	74%	50%	22%
1	Braden Gentry Auburn, AL	1767 ± 59	86%	60%	28%	18%
7	Brad Allen Hoover, AL	1710 ± 84	84%	52%	25%	8%
8	Ellis Mount Parts Unknown, Earth	1717 ± 92	82%	34%	11%	5%
2	Chris Warren AL Birmingham, AL	1677 ± 76	56%	26%	10%	2%
13	Alex Huffman Birmingham, AL	1694 ± 94	19%	12%	5%	2%
6	Paul Budko Huntsville, AL	1663 ± 63	70%	20%	8%	2%
5	Chris Harris Birmingham, AL	1666 ± 80	79%	14%	4%	2%
15	Bill Scrivener Birmingham, AL	1658 ± 88	44%	18%	6%	1%
16	Jason Wilson AL Birmingham, AL	1625 ± 82	14%	4%	<1%	<1%
11	Jeff Street Birmingham, AL	1596 ± 74	30%	5%	1%	<1%
10	Stephen Gentry Auburn, AL	1581 ± 61	16%	4%	<1%	<1%
9	Tatiana Pinner Parts Unknown, AL	1593 ± 69	18%	3%	<1%	<1%
14	Dan Fox AL Meridianville, AL	1546 ± 74	6%	1%	<1%	<1%
12	Jimmy Gable Meridianville, AL	1562 ± 78	21%	1%	<1%	<1%

ALBERTA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: ALBERTA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	John Kottmann Calgary, AB	1772 ± 65	100%	89%	65%	39%	25%
2	Derek Thomson Edmonton, AB	1754 ± 69	100%	80%	61%	41%	21%
4	Mike Tzanakos Calgary, AB	1768 ± 74	100%	83%	57%	32%	21%
3	David Johnston US Edmonton, AB	1709 ± 84	100%	65%	34%	16%	6%
8	James McConnell Calgary, AB	1716 ± 67	100%	71%	26%	12%	6%
5	Wes Balla Chestermere, AB	1716 ± 63	100%	59%	23%	9%	5%
6	Mike Wieschorster Edmonton, AB	1699 ± 61	100%	51%	26%	11%	4%
11	Kyle Harvey Edmonton, AB	1706 ± 90	58%	30%	16%	8%	3%
10	Dan Horne Calgary, AB	1687 ± 61	59%	39%	14%	7%	2%
12	Alex Kemp Edmonton, AB	1704 ± 82	67%	31%	11%	4%	2%
14	Xavier Batti Calgary, AB	1674 ± 76	60%	23%	10%	4%	1%
22	Perry Sipos Parts Unknown, Earth	1680 ± 104	42%	19%	9%	4%	<1%
23	Micaela Wolf Calgary, AB	1658 ± 67	41%	23%	7%	3%	<1%
7	Tony Batti Calgary, AB	1633 ± 59	100%	38%	9%	3%	<1%
13	Eric Moore Calgary, AB	1666 ± 65	74%	15%	6%	2%	<1%
9	Jeff Gully Edmonton, AB	1661 ± 82	68%	23%	5%	2%	<1%
15	Loren Wyard Scott Edmonton, AB	1647 ± 94	51%	10%	5%	2%	<1%
18	Sheldon Fuchs Calgary, AB	1647 ± 69	49%	9%	4%	2%	<1%
21	Rob Millar Parts Unknown, Earth	1648 ± 71	33%	11%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Cody Tompkins Sherwood Park, AB	1640 ± 90	40%	12%	4%	1%	<1%
16	Jordan Penner Edmonton, AB	1625 ± 84	62%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
24	Steve Lubarsky Edson, AB	1601 ± 96	32%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Scott Stinchcombe Sherwood Park, AB	1585 ± 65	26%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Elie Kushner Edmonton, AB	1585 ± 94	38%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

ARIZONA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: ARIZONA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
10	Will McKinney Phoenix, AZ	1824 ± 78	99%	84%	57%	36%	26%
1	Roland Nadeau Parts Unknown, AZ	1791 ± 61	100%	74%	55%	43%	21%
3	John Shopple Mesa, AZ	1795 ± 57	100%	85%	49%	24%	16%
2	Mark Pearson Phoenix, AZ	1786 ± 53	100%	79%	35%	18%	11%
6	Greg Davis Phoenix, AZ	1772 ± 67	100%	54%	26%	11%	7%
22	Ben Clement Marana, AZ	1778 ± 55	79%	41%	21%	9%	6%
4	Adam Horton Phoenix, AZ	1714 ± 61	100%	69%	43%	16%	4%
12	Andrew Roesch Parts Unknown, Earth	1709 ± 61	70%	51%	27%	10%	2%
24	John Finnegan Tucson, AZ	1720 ± 55	54%	32%	12%	7%	2%
8	Paul Blanco Chandler, AZ	1694 ± 57	100%	44%	13%	6%	1%
9	Conrad Betti Phoenix, AZ	1711 ± 63	46%	25%	8%	4%	1%
17	Kevin Curtis Mesa, AZ	1710 ± 65	53%	14%	7%	4%	<1%
16	Joey Rio Surprise, AZ	1699 ± 86	47%	12%	6%	3%	<1%
7	Jason Barre Mesa, AZ	1689 ± 53	100%	16%	5%	1%	<1%
13	Walter dony Phoenix, AZ	1666 ± 61	72%	26%	12%	3%	<1%
15	Ty Bull Parts Unknown, Earth	1695 ± 59	58%	14%	3%	<1%	<1%
5	John Magyar Gilbert, AZ	1640 ± 51	100%	34%	11%	2%	<1%
21	Mark Lindbergh Chandler, AZ	1644 ± 63	30%	15%	5%	<1%	<1%
11	kevan carter Tempe, AZ	1674 ± 67	21%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
18	Brad Vogus Phoenix, AZ	1671 ± 57	42%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	Jim Smith AZ Phoenix, AZ	1646 ± 57	43%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
19	Tracy Lindbergh Chandler, AZ	1668 ± 57	57%	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
20	Dave Halley Parts Unknown, Earth	1593 ± 49	28%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
23	Jon Soares Phoenix, AZ	1500 ± 294	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

ARKANSAS

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: ARKANSAS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	Mike Malone Fayetteville, AR	1714 ± 84	82%	49%	27%	17%
8	Eric Fisher AR Hot Springs, AR	1722 ± 98	55%	39%	23%	15%
9	Chris Compton Parts Unknown, Earth	1708 ± 69	45%	31%	17%	11%
2	Phil Nguyen Springdale, AR	1679 ± 84	80%	45%	23%	10%
3	Chris Scherer Fayetteville, AR	1676 ± 78	78%	40%	22%	9%
4	George Kuharick Fayetteville, AR	1694 ± 78	61%	30%	15%	9%
7	Allie Lawson Fayetteville, AR	1675 ± 71	68%	38%	19%	8%
6	Brian Rice Fayetteville, AR	1677 ± 80	54%	31%	17%	7%
1	John Monkus Parts Unknown, AR	1661 ± 78	78%	27%	11%	5%
11	Clinton Sharp Parts Unknown, Earth	1665 ± 88	46%	24%	12%	5%
13	Alex Charton Conway, AR	1657 ± 90	39%	15%	6%	3%
10	Nathan Yates Coal Hill, AR	1614 ± 98	32%	12%	4%	<1%
14	Gael Brice Bentonville, AR	1574 ± 73	22%	5%	1%	<1%
12	Bec Taylor Fayetteville, AR	1599 ± 69	18%	5%	1%	<1%
15	Mark Gunter Hope, AR	1571 ± 78	20%	5%	1%	<1%
16	Bryce Young Parts Unknown, AR	1560 ± 96	22%	3%	<1%	<1%

BRITISH COLUMBIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: BRITISH COLUMBIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Sara Little Vancouver, BC	1824 ± 67	100%	83%	78%	55%	36%
4	Miles Grant Port Coquitlam, BC	1808 ± 78	100%	86%	54%	42%	23%
6	Robert Gagno Burnaby, BC	1780 ± 86	100%	83%	58%	27%	14%
5	Emily Reilhan Port Moody, BC	1781 ± 51	100%	69%	32%	22%	11%
1	Sean Lind Vancouver, BC	1740 ± 86	100%	58%	41%	15%	5%
16	Fuji Eng Victoria, BC	1732 ± 108	65%	31%	21%	7%	3%
3	Tyler Bates Nanaimo, BC	1711 ± 69	100%	55%	20%	6%	2%
12	Adam Thompson CAN Vancouver, BC	1734 ± 59	67%	24%	8%	5%	2%
19	Jason Gordon Parts Unknown, BC	1716 ± 92	73%	38%	14%	4%	1%
18	Billy Gordon Vancouver, BC	1714 ± 67	71%	14%	11%	4%	1%
8	Garrett Wolf Vancouver, Earth	1675 ± 61	100%	52%	17%	4%	<1%
9	Shawn Orza Parts Unknown, BC	1687 ± 82	72%	39%	14%	3%	<1%
20	Chantelle Mercier Burnaby, BC	1683 ± 55	70%	12%	4%	2%	<1%
11	Karrie Hill Victoria, BC	1664 ± 63	87%	16%	6%	1%	<1%
10	Ron DeCastro North Saanich, BC	1632 ± 76	58%	33%	4%	<1%	<1%
17	Braden Lauer Vancouver, BC	1679 ± 94	35%	11%	6%	1%	<1%
21	Dion Bellay Burnaby, BC	1677 ± 71	33%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%
15	Rob Moller Coquitlam, BC	1643 ± 65	29%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
7	David Seath Parts Unknown, Earth	1611 ± 71	100%	47%	4%	<1%	<1%
14	Riley Mangelsen North Saanich, BC	1635 ± 76	27%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
23	Dan Bitterlich Victoria, BC	1606 ± 78	42%	20%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Corey Hobe Victoria, BC	1617 ± 67	30%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Doug Ramsay Nanaimo, BC	1613 ± 69	28%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Jeremy Matthews Vancouver, BC	1500 ± 294	13%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CALIFORNIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: CALIFORNIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	raymond ashby Los Angeles, CA	1859 ± 74	100%	66%	55%	44%	25%
3	Andrei Massenkoff San Francisco, CA	1850 ± 67	100%	91%	59%	32%	20%
7	Escher Lefkoff Parts Unknown, CO	1862 ± 71	100%	63%	41%	24%	16%
15	Karl DeAngelo Fontana, CA	1843 ± 78	86%	69%	34%	18%	10%
6	Scott Macias Glendora, CA	1817 ± 67	100%	72%	32%	14%	7%
12	Derek Price San Diego, CA	1821 ± 63	80%	31%	24%	16%	7%
8	Nic Stein Davis, CA	1768 ± 71	100%	53%	30%	10%	3%
23	Gerald Kirchner Lakewood, CA	1822 ± 65	56%	21%	11%	5%	3%
1	Tim Hansen Sunnyvale, CA	1756 ± 61	100%	58%	28%	9%	2%
10	Jim Belsito Murrieta, CA	1807 ± 71	44%	15%	8%	3%	2%
9	Johnny Modica Hacienda Heights, CA	1759 ± 73	52%	25%	14%	4%	1%
4	Leslie Ruckman Parts Unknown, CA	1736 ± 55	100%	53%	11%	5%	1%
24	Mark Maleko Schulz San Diego, CA	1755 ± 78	48%	23%	12%	4%	<1%
11	Jared Garvey Berkeley, CA	1757 ± 71	83%	26%	7%	2%	<1%
16	Dustin Goldbarg Sunnyvale, CA	1737 ± 55	55%	24%	10%	3%	<1%
20	Matthew Talley Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA	1728 ± 57	49%	23%	4%	2%	<1%
13	Dennis Eichhorn Irvine, CA	1730 ± 51	51%	24%	5%	2%	<1%
2	Gabe Da Silveira Oakland, CA	1732 ± 69	100%	25%	5%	1%	<1%
17	Zac Wollons San Francisco, CA	1722 ± 67	45%	18%	6%	2%	<1%
21	Nick Yahnke Oakland, CA	1716 ± 73	20%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
18	Steve Ward CA Lake Forest, CA	1708 ± 55	14%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14	John Tracey Salinas, CA	1672 ± 57	49%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Jonathan Soon Parts Unknown, CA	1671 ± 53	51%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Fran Irwin Aliso Viejo, CA	1631 ± 53	17%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

COLORADO

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: COLORADO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Walt Wood Englewood, CO	1906 ± 59	100%	95%	88%	84%	72%
3	Donavan Stepp Lakewood, CO	1804 ± 69	100%	81%	58%	37%	11%
15	John Quinn Denver, CO	1779 ± 82	78%	52%	32%	17%	5%
7	Ryan Wanger Boulder, CO	1762 ± 82	100%	84%	44%	20%	4%
6	Mat Brundage Denver, CO	1746 ± 74	100%	82%	32%	15%	2%
8	Daniel Anderson Englewood, CO	1725 ± 78	100%	65%	7%	4%	2%
2	Ryan Altermatt Denver, CO	1723 ± 65	100%	39%	18%	6%	<1%
21	Chase Hart Denver, CO	1698 ± 100	72%	37%	21%	2%	<1%
5	Robert Slyker Parts Unknown, CO	1691 ± 71	100%	54%	31%	3%	<1%
17	Kevin McCarthy Conifer, CO	1709 ± 80	76%	5%	3%	1%	<1%
4	Mark Abbott Denver, CO	1682 ± 73	100%	60%	29%	2%	<1%
14	Adam Lefkoff Boulder, CO	1707 ± 94	72%	17%	7%	3%	<1%
9	Marshall Weasel Denver, CO	1690 ± 65	83%	33%	2%	1%	<1%
13	Aaron Rito Portland, OR	1655 ± 80	54%	22%	9%	<1%	<1%
18	Drew Donohue Louisville, KY	1682 ± 78	22%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
20	Brian Wonderly Denver, CO	1644 ± 71	46%	18%	7%	<1%	<1%
22	Tim Bruner Northglenn, CO	1624 ± 63	48%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	Justin Hinman Denver, CO	1633 ± 61	52%	10%	1%	<1%	<1%
23	Mike Paproski Parts Unknown, CO	1637 ± 65	51%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	David Johnson CO Aurora, CO	1632 ± 67	49%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%
24	Nathan Hart Denver, CO	1571 ± 82	17%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Stepan Mazurov Boulder, CO	1625 ± 69	28%	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
19	Cassie Begay Denver, CO	1632 ± 61	28%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	Lewis Ritenour Denver, CO	1616 ± 78	24%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

CONNECTICUT

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: CONNECTICUT
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Tyler Aas Vernon, CT	1712 ± 69	79%	60%	45%	31%
2	Ashton Capone Parts Unknown, CT	1687 ± 74	76%	61%	41%	23%
14	Tom LaTulipe Monroe, CT	1646 ± 102	52%	32%	16%	7%
5	Davey Plaisted North Stonington, CT	1637 ± 67	66%	38%	15%	7%
4	Matt Boschert Parts Unknown, Earth	1634 ± 84	70%	37%	14%	6%
3	Joe Jokubaitis Watertown, CT	1639 ± 63	48%	29%	14%	6%
9	Holly Danowski Meriden, CT	1633 ± 67	57%	19%	10%	5%
11	Andy Obelnicki West Hartford, CT	1610 ± 61	51%	20%	8%	3%
6	Jason Corrado New Haven, CT	1606 ± 67	49%	19%	7%	2%
8	Camden Capone Parts Unknown, Earth	1610 ± 78	43%	12%	6%	2%
15	Randall Landau Parts Unknown, CT	1597 ± 80	24%	14%	5%	2%
16	Dan Carnein Parts Unknown, Earth	1605 ± 92	21%	9%	4%	2%
7	Chris Dirga Parts Unknown, CT	1582 ± 71	52%	13%	5%	1%
12	Mike Capone Parts Unknown, CT	1584 ± 80	34%	15%	4%	1%
10	James Swain Jr. Hamden, CT	1577 ± 84	48%	12%	4%	1%
13	George Magyar Wallingford, CT	1566 ± 74	30%	10%	2%	<1%

DELAWARE

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: DELAWARE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Jason Zahler Parts Unknown, NJ	1887 ± 73	94%	90%	72%	61%
1	Matthew Richardson Medford, NJ	1789 ± 63	96%	76%	54%	16%
3	Steve Zahler Parts Unknown, NY	1803 ± 65	88%	68%	21%	14%
4	Robert DeStasio Cinnaminson, NJ	1742 ± 71	84%	56%	25%	5%
6	Tom Destasio Parts Unknown, NJ	1721 ± 63	80%	26%	4%	1%
5	Chad Hastings Parts Unknown, DE	1699 ± 63	66%	29%	9%	1%
8	Mike Germscheid Pitman, NJ	1693 ± 67	57%	14%	6%	<1%
9	Pete Tsipouras Parts Unknown, Earth	1672 ± 63	43%	9%	3%	<1%
15	Rick Prince Parts Unknown, PA	1680 ± 69	6%	4%	1%	<1%
12	Stefano Pinti Parts Unknown, PA	1649 ± 59	34%	11%	2%	<1%
7	James Perugini Wilmington, DE	1665 ± 59	58%	4%	<1%	<1%
10	Michael Veith Milford, DE	1641 ± 63	42%	2%	<1%	<1%
14	David Schumeister Philadelphia, PA	1652 ± 63	12%	4%	<1%	<1%
13	Rodney Comegys Exton, PA	1612 ± 55	16%	5%	<1%	<1%
11	Michael Tyler Montross, VA	1611 ± 61	20%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Paul Pratzner Parts Unknown, DE	1567 ± 57	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	David Barber Manassas, VA	1718 ± 82	93%	67%	45%	27%
1	Calvin Oung Washington, DC	1716 ± 74	79%	67%	44%	26%
3	Matthew Gatwood Washington, DC	1693 ± 88	77%	54%	26%	14%
4	Won Chang Washington, DC	1684 ± 88	52%	35%	18%	9%
13	Chris Newsom Barboursville, VA	1679 ± 80	48%	31%	16%	7%
7	Stephen Hansell Washington, DC	1661 ± 104	65%	23%	12%	5%
11	Fil Baird Washington, DC	1640 ± 80	64%	26%	9%	3%
12	Dave Snyder VA Alexandria, VA	1634 ± 61	55%	20%	7%	2%
8	Tom Kenyon Parts Unknown, Earth	1603 ± 78	68%	17%	6%	1%
5	Eric Batke Washington, DC	1619 ± 78	45%	14%	5%	1%
16	Mollie Lee Washington, DC	1608 ± 135	21%	12%	4%	1%
10	Dash Delan Washington, DC	1611 ± 102	35%	9%	3%	<1%
14	Brian Galletta Silver Spring, MD	1596 ± 98	23%	9%	2%	<1%
6	Benjamin Linkow Silver Spring, MD	1594 ± 92	36%	10%	2%	<1%
9	Will Adler Washington, DC	1543 ± 82	32%	4%	<1%	<1%
15	Malcolm Utley Parts Unknown, MD	1532 ± 65	7%	1%	<1%	<1%

FLORIDA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: FLORIDA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Eric Stone Fort Myers, FL	1955 ± 73	100%	97%	90%	81%	69%
2	Shannon Stafford Orange Park, FL	1840 ± 65	100%	91%	81%	65%	18%
4	Sebastian Bobbio Parts Unknown, Earth	1812 ± 82	100%	82%	62%	12%	6%
6	Dan Coyle St. Petersburg, FL	1755 ± 96	100%	74%	49%	17%	2%
8	Alex Marino Oviedo, FL	1772 ± 88	100%	84%	9%	4%	2%
3	Vince Gelormine Fort Lauderdale, FL	1719 ± 59	100%	74%	33%	8%	<1%
12	Joe Geneau St Augustine, FL	1730 ± 94	91%	52%	17%	1%	<1%
10	Adam Gray Temple Terrace, FL	1697 ± 61	75%	44%	8%	3%	<1%
5	Dr. Frank Sposaro Lakeland, FL	1709 ± 69	100%	47%	13%	<1%	<1%
11	David Miller FL Tampa, FL	1688 ± 57	63%	18%	9%	2%	<1%
16	Jeff Palmer Parkland, FL	1718 ± 123	76%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
7	John Moschella Winter Springs, FL	1670 ± 74	100%	47%	7%	2%	<1%
14	Andy Sokol Titusville, FL	1655 ± 80	83%	25%	7%	<1%	<1%
15	Justin Derazza Lake Mary, FL	1672 ± 80	82%	8%	4%	1%	<1%
20	Jokton Strealy Valdosta, GA	1705 ± 76	59%	12%	5%	<1%	<1%
13	Tristan Stafford Orange Park, FL	1674 ± 63	41%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
9	Brayden Derazza Lake Mary, FL	1643 ± 82	53%	9%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Stephen Jones FL St. Petersburg, FL	1650 ± 67	37%	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
23	Omar Sokay Parts Unknown, Earth	1613 ± 61	25%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Anthony Dickson Jacksonville, FL	1626 ± 78	24%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Stacey Stafford Orange Park, FL	1528 ± 59	17%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Mike Zink Ocala, FL	1635 ± 65	47%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Chris Henry FL Callahan, FL	1555 ± 80	18%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Sandra Dodge Coral Springs, FL	1550 ± 55	9%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

GEORGIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: GEORGIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Dalton Ely Rockmart, GA	1872 ± 69	100%	97%	95%	89%	78%
4	Turner Loflin Parts Unknown, Earth	1751 ± 69	100%	66%	56%	41%	10%
1	Scott Kutheis Parts Unknown, Earth	1701 ± 71	100%	80%	67%	31%	5%
3	Tommy Vernieri Atlanta, GA	1699 ± 59	100%	63%	44%	6%	3%
20	Addison Mount Auburn, AL	1696 ± 74	49%	17%	12%	7%	1%
13	Joshua Yates Savannah, GA	1699 ± 74	51%	17%	13%	8%	1%
19	Marc Fleury Atlanta, GA	1675 ± 94	82%	35%	23%	2%	<1%
6	Neal Wagoner Tybee Island, GA	1646 ± 69	100%	74%	27%	2%	<1%
21	Al Neumann DeLand, FL	1639 ± 61	57%	35%	8%	4%	<1%
7	James Skelley Chattanooga, TN	1610 ± 67	100%	61%	2%	<1%	<1%
5	Jacob Gragg Atlanta, GA	1598 ± 63	100%	41%	6%	2%	<1%
18	Rich Mazzolini Savannah, GA	1629 ± 69	68%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%
12	Dillon McFarland Decatur, GA	1616 ± 80	43%	24%	4%	2%	<1%
9	Brett Berlin Atlanta, GA	1591 ± 94	63%	35%	9%	2%	<1%
8	Charlie Gehlhaus McDonough, GA	1573 ± 92	100%	49%	10%	2%	<1%
10	Mark Munder Marietta, GA	1590 ± 78	60%	26%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	Bryan Broyles Atlanta, GA	1596 ± 65	54%	11%	7%	1%	<1%
17	David Knight Atlanta, GA	1583 ± 100	46%	9%	4%	<1%	<1%
24	Andy Kastelik Roswell, GA	1548 ± 67	37%	16%	3%	<1%	<1%
23	Erich Renken Decatur, GA	1556 ± 76	40%	13%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Timothy Ensor Decatur, GA	1552 ± 86	42%	10%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	Jason Noa Atlanta, GA	1576 ± 63	58%	17%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Josh Mooney Atlanta, GA	1568 ± 63	32%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14	Charlie Gehring Marietta, GA	1553 ± 63	18%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

IDAHO

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: IDAHO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
11	Xyren Silvers Boise, ID	1757 ± 84	91%	80%	69%	48%
1	Dwayne Smith Boise, ID	1725 ± 65	96%	75%	62%	33%
2	John Fricke Boise, ID	1637 ± 65	87%	61%	16%	6%
5	Sterling Emry Nampa, ID	1631 ± 61	69%	46%	15%	4%
8	Chris Hebert Boise, ID	1639 ± 74	66%	19%	11%	3%
14	Brandon Atchley Boise, ID	1610 ± 71	54%	9%	5%	1%
4	Gerry Eismann Boise, ID	1588 ± 61	61%	26%	6%	1%
7	Matt Lauro Boise, ID	1582 ± 67	59%	23%	4%	<1%
3	Doug Brown ID Meridian, ID	1599 ± 65	46%	7%	3%	<1%
12	Dan Repp Boise, ID	1567 ± 73	31%	14%	3%	<1%
9	Quintin lauro Parts Unknown, ID	1583 ± 65	34%	5%	2%	<1%
6	Chad Herbert Boise, ID	1579 ± 71	9%	4%	2%	<1%
10	Avery Irvin Boise, ID	1551 ± 63	41%	13%	1%	<1%
13	David Goar Parts Unknown, Earth	1553 ± 71	39%	13%	2%	<1%
15	Debbie Smith Boise, ID	1492 ± 63	13%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Brennan Fricke Boise, ID	1484 ± 67	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%

ILLINOIS

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: ILLINOIS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
21	Zach McCarthy Conifer, CO	1876 ± 74	90%	82%	71%	46%	30%
1	Andy Bagwell Elgin, IL	1855 ± 71	100%	88%	71%	40%	24%
23	Zach Sharpe Chicago, IL	1860 ± 122	82%	73%	49%	35%	19%
2	Raymond Davidson Elk Grove Village, IL	1823 ± 65	100%	80%	39%	26%	11%
11	Mike Pantoliano Seattle, WA	1811 ± 92	85%	79%	63%	28%	11%
9	Ryan McQuaid Parts Unknown, Earth	1771 ± 78	71%	47%	14%	5%	2%
4	Nick Weyna Des Plaines, IL	1734 ± 110	100%	65%	15%	4%	<1%
3	Chuck Sanderson Parts Unknown, Earth	1705 ± 69	100%	55%	16%	3%	<1%
8	Alex Lecky Chicago, IL	1715 ± 80	100%	40%	8%	2%	<1%
10	Andrew Wilkening Chicago, IL	1741 ± 61	18%	11%	4%	2%	<1%
14	Alex Pierson Chicago, IL	1708 ± 78	79%	41%	13%	3%	<1%
15	Jane Verwys Chicago, IL	1721 ± 59	94%	20%	5%	2%	<1%
5	Tyler Becker Parts Unknown, Earth	1703 ± 59	100%	13%	6%	1%	<1%
17	Stanley Sowa Jr Chicago, IL	1717 ± 92	67%	10%	5%	1%	<1%
20	Maurice Smith II Lansing, IL	1704 ± 76	70%	28%	5%	1%	<1%
7	Bob Twichell Oaklawn, IL	1703 ± 55	100%	16%	4%	1%	<1%
12	Tyler Hund Parts Unknown, IL	1711 ± 71	10%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Mike Kolman Downers Grove, IL	1676 ± 53	15%	11%	5%	<1%	<1%
24	Colin Krawcyk Mackinaw, IL	1698 ± 59	29%	12%	2%	<1%	<1%
6	Tom Knorst Parts Unknown, IL	1614 ± 61	100%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
13	Stephen Chappell Ferguson, MO	1639 ± 67	30%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	Tim Zollner Edwardsville, IL	1659 ± 69	33%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Will Cooper CA Chicago, IL	1604 ± 61	21%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	James Brooks IL Moro, IL	1500 ± 294	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

INDIANA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: INDIANA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
15	Tommy Skinner Lafayette, IN	1781 ± 67	84%	64%	47%	37%	26%
8	Preston Currie Fishers, IN	1747 ± 55	100%	70%	39%	27%	15%
1	Andy Dill Martinsville, IN	1741 ± 51	100%	58%	31%	22%	12%
23	Jon Rangel Indianapolis, IN	1734 ± 55	70%	59%	27%	19%	10%
14	Joe Bayer Indianapolis, IN	1715 ± 65	65%	44%	31%	13%	6%
20	Dan White Crown Point, IN	1704 ± 57	68%	50%	30%	12%	5%
17	Bob Skinner IN Pittsboro, IN	1729 ± 61	65%	30%	15%	10%	5%
2	Ryan Quinn Bluffton, IN	1691 ± 51	100%	30%	15%	8%	4%
21	Graham Stiver Fort Wayne, IN	1685 ± 71	50%	30%	17%	6%	2%
12	Travis Hockemeyer Fort Wayne, IN	1683 ± 59	50%	30%	16%	6%	2%
6	Austin Deventer Fort Wayne, IN	1655 ± 49	100%	57%	23%	6%	2%
3	Joshua Franklin Fort Wayne, IN	1657 ± 53	100%	37%	20%	5%	2%
9	Ryan Donohue Indianapolis, IN	1682 ± 53	49%	15%	6%	3%	1%
24	Josh Riggle Parts Unknown, Earth	1680 ± 65	51%	15%	5%	3%	1%
5	mattison ogden Kendallville, IN	1646 ± 53	100%	39%	17%	4%	1%
19	Nick Squires Fort Wayne, IN	1667 ± 57	35%	19%	11%	3%	1%
10	Mark Moore IN Ligonier, IN	1667 ± 53	30%	20%	6%	3%	<1%
16	Kim Coghill Logansport, IN	1680 ± 61	35%	11%	4%	2%	<1%
11	Chris Fogel Fort Wayne, IN	1645 ± 53	59%	28%	10%	3%	<1%
4	Scott Elliott Columbia City, IN	1625 ± 73	100%	33%	12%	3%	<1%
13	Mathew Winteregg Fort Wayne, IN	1643 ± 57	32%	18%	7%	2%	<1%
22	Dan Ostrowski Fort Wayne, IN	1618 ± 69	41%	15%	5%	1%	<1%
7	Sydnee Deventer Fort Wayne, IN	1613 ± 53	100%	22%	4%	1%	<1%
18	Chris Friend La Porte, IN	1652 ± 53	16%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%

IOWA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: IOWA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
8	Sawyer Herweh Des Moines, IA	1785 ± 102	79%	59%	51%	36%
15	Jeremy Larsen Omaha, NE	1759 ± 88	75%	55%	41%	24%
3	Matthew Hartmann Parts Unknown, Earth	1700 ± 76	85%	60%	27%	11%
1	Cody McQuiston Parts Unknown, IA	1717 ± 63	72%	26%	19%	10%
13	Zaden Issah Iowa City, IA	1674 ± 80	67%	45%	12%	5%
10	Darren Gregory Ankeny, IA	1680 ± 110	54%	18%	9%	4%
9	Parker Stevens West Des Moines, IA	1678 ± 92	21%	9%	6%	3%
7	Scott Millman Parts Unknown, Earth	1673 ± 71	46%	15%	7%	2%
2	Ethan Bent Saskatoon, SK	1670 ± 82	25%	11%	5%	2%
5	Trae Vance Madison, WI	1628 ± 51	58%	25%	5%	1%
6	Caleb Mann Muscatine, IA	1636 ± 82	54%	21%	5%	1%
11	Aaron Prestemon Dorchester, IA	1622 ± 71	46%	15%	4%	<1%
16	Alivia Haley Ames, IA	1640 ± 63	28%	5%	3%	<1%
4	Aaron Van Noy Iowa City, IA	1617 ± 63	33%	16%	3%	<1%
12	Jay Gross Peosta, IA	1600 ± 63	42%	14%	2%	<1%
14	Cam Edwards Monticello, IA	1565 ± 76	15%	5%	<1%	<1%

KANSAS

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: KANSAS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Phil Cridlebaugh Kansas City, KS	1830 ± 76	81%	69%	47%	29%
2	Preston Pywell Wichita, KS	1800 ± 90	92%	65%	37%	19%
1	Jim Mank Overland Park, KS	1794 ± 76	91%	69%	35%	19%
3	Jason Scheffelmaer Olathe, KS	1807 ± 90	80%	59%	35%	18%
7	Cory Moren Wichita, KS	1748 ± 82	73%	28%	12%	4%
6	Keri Wing Overland Park, KS	1743 ± 63	77%	29%	12%	4%
8	Don Brownback Parkville, MO	1720 ± 73	79%	26%	8%	3%
5	Logan Wiehn Wichita, KS	1703 ± 63	59%	13%	4%	1%
13	Mark McColpin Kansas City, MO	1718 ± 74	19%	11%	4%	1%
14	Dylan Michalski Kansas City, KS	1700 ± 69	20%	8%	2%	<1%
12	Rob Huffman Bates City, MO	1673 ± 71	41%	7%	2%	<1%
10	Dave Chapman El Dorado, KS	1671 ± 57	27%	6%	1%	<1%
11	Conard Bush Parts Unknown, KS	1644 ± 69	23%	3%	<1%	<1%
9	Sam Swain Wichita, KS	1614 ± 71	21%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Steve Brown USA Wichita, KS	1607 ± 73	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Chad Cowan Wichita, KS	1620 ± 65	9%	3%	<1%	<1%

KENTUCKY

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: KENTUCKY
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Sean Davis Louisville, KY	1793 ± 80	91%	78%	64%	39%
2	Elizabeth Gieske Parts Unknown, Earth	1781 ± 80	84%	70%	42%	24%
3	Kalyn Smith CA Louisville, KY	1777 ± 73	69%	47%	28%	16%
11	Matt Peace Springville, IN	1733 ± 53	79%	34%	16%	7%
4	Tim Ellis New Albany, IN	1705 ± 69	66%	42%	14%	5%
14	Erik Wurtenberger Independence, KY	1714 ± 74	31%	16%	7%	3%
5	Jason Gwin Louisville, KY	1663 ± 73	54%	23%	5%	1%
8	Christopher Dewitt Jr Louisville, KY	1660 ± 65	57%	11%	5%	<1%
7	Josh Asbury Paris, KY	1658 ± 69	56%	13%	3%	<1%
12	Willy Allen Maysville, KY	1651 ± 104	46%	18%	4%	<1%
13	Robert Cecil Sellersburg, IN	1651 ± 96	34%	16%	3%	<1%
9	Greg Knight Louisville, KY	1638 ± 63	43%	7%	3%	<1%
15	Ken Guenther Burlington, KY	1656 ± 61	16%	8%	2%	<1%
10	Heath Ashley Columbia, SC	1640 ± 92	44%	8%	2%	<1%
16	Garry O’Brien Louisville, KY	1623 ± 73	9%	4%	1%	<1%
6	Joe Embry Louisville, KY	1626 ± 73	21%	3%	<1%	<1%

LOUISIANA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: LOUISIANA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Allen Robertson Sour Lake, TX	1711 ± 100	97%	80%	51%	37%
3	Jody Aucoin Lake Charles, LA	1699 ± 108	81%	69%	37%	25%
5	Ariel Dutton Parts Unknown, LA	1656 ± 73	86%	66%	41%	16%
1	Brian Fults Lake Charles, LA	1646 ± 71	84%	68%	38%	14%
4	Edwin Hunter Parts Unknown, LA	1580 ± 131	73%	25%	10%	2%
10	James Haag Leesville, LA	1588 ± 108	53%	10%	3%	1%
14	Scott Henderson Monroe, LA	1579 ± 239	19%	11%	2%	1%
7	Patrick Pichon Lake Charles, LA	1575 ± 165	47%	9%	3%	<1%
8	Mike Vanetten Parks, LA	1547 ± 118	63%	19%	5%	<1%
6	Joshua Dupre Houma, LA	1563 ± 245	55%	12%	2%	<1%
11	Wendy Bourg Baton Rouge, LA	1547 ± 118	45%	8%	1%	<1%
9	Mike Perry New Orleans, LA	1500 ± 294	37%	7%	2%	<1%
12	Sam Ottinger New Orleans, LA	1500 ± 294	14%	5%	1%	<1%
16	Jason Workman Hammond, LA	1500 ± 294	16%	6%	1%	<1%
13	Paul Heard Parts Unknown, Earth	1498 ± 112	27%	4%	<1%	<1%
15	Rob Burnside Parts Unknown, LA	1466 ± 106	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MAINE

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MAINE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Daniel Rone Revere, MA	1763 ± 53	95%	74%	51%	39%
2	Geoff Alterman Portland, ME	1728 ± 55	85%	70%	33%	23%
12	Tom Law Austin, TX	1684 ± 94	78%	55%	31%	11%
1	Gabe Noblesmith Parts Unknown, ME	1691 ± 59	71%	46%	28%	11%
3	Daniel Letendre Portland, ME	1683 ± 71	81%	24%	11%	6%
9	Joey Harwood Portland, ME	1651 ± 78	58%	25%	12%	3%
4	Seth Clayter Portland, ME	1631 ± 71	76%	32%	13%	3%
8	Joe Hinkle Brunswick, ME	1625 ± 88	42%	16%	7%	1%
10	David Aceto Portland, ME	1623 ± 100	66%	17%	4%	1%
16	Chyle Cameron Portland, OR	1621 ± 69	29%	13%	5%	1%
5	Nate Mills Parts Unknown, Earth	1583 ± 71	22%	9%	3%	<1%
7	Nicholas Sylvester Parts Unknown, Earth	1570 ± 71	34%	6%	<1%	<1%
15	Mike Hassett Portland, ME	1595 ± 88	15%	7%	<1%	<1%
14	Jeff Parsons Portland, ME	1567 ± 88	19%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Sarah Twomey Parts Unknown, Earth	1540 ± 86	24%	4%	<1%	<1%
11	Traynor Gauthier Westbrook, ME	1544 ± 94	5%	1%	<1%	<1%

MANITOBA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MANITOBA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Drew Sych Winnipeg, MB	1778 ± 67	94%	75%	66%	45%
3	Ian Gomm Winnipeg, MB	1748 ± 80	93%	79%	55%	29%
2	Jay Woolston Winnipeg, MB	1705 ± 73	87%	62%	28%	12%
8	Kevin Peden Big Black River, MB	1679 ± 92	61%	16%	11%	4%
4	Derek Willis Winnipeg, MB	1654 ± 84	73%	53%	12%	4%
7	David Morris Winnipeg, MB	1646 ± 69	67%	26%	8%	2%
6	Grant Zeilstra Winnipeg, MB	1628 ± 86	72%	15%	6%	1%
9	Tony Warzel Winnipeg, MB	1643 ± 100	39%	7%	4%	1%
5	Marcel Toutant Winnipeg, MB	1588 ± 88	55%	20%	3%	<1%
12	Cam Smith WPG Winnipeg, MB	1573 ± 78	45%	14%	2%	<1%
13	Samara May Parts Unknown, MB	1574 ± 82	27%	13%	1%	<1%
10	David Miller CAN Winnipeg, MB	1593 ± 82	33%	8%	2%	<1%
16	Liam Kostusik Winnipeg, MB	1577 ± 92	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
14	John Galayda Winnipeg, MB	1556 ± 90	7%	3%	<1%	<1%
11	John Kostusik Winnipeg, MB	1554 ± 92	28%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	John Bear Winnipeg, MB	1556 ± 82	13%	4%	<1%	<1%

MARYLAND

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MARYLAND
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Douglas M Malcolm Chevy Chase, MD	1803 ± 74	100%	89%	77%	48%	32%
3	Dave Hubbard Cooksville, MD	1774 ± 73	100%	95%	83%	60%	29%
1	Elliott Keith Catonsville, MD	1793 ± 51	100%	66%	54%	30%	19%
2	Justin Bath Greater Landover, MD	1721 ± 51	100%	71%	43%	18%	6%
17	Zachary Parks IL Evanston, IL	1755 ± 90	84%	33%	24%	11%	6%
10	Casey Fowler Glen Burnie, MD	1707 ± 53	50%	36%	18%	7%	2%
8	Alex Jeffrey Columbia, MD	1689 ± 59	100%	76%	19%	5%	2%
23	Joe Kosack Crofton, MD	1707 ± 108	50%	36%	18%	7%	2%
6	Jose Chong Parts Unknown, Earth	1637 ± 49	100%	64%	11%	4%	<1%
21	Rob Wintler-Cox Derwood, MD	1672 ± 65	64%	36%	8%	2%	<1%
18	Dennis Muse Hagerstown, MD	1666 ± 84	70%	24%	11%	3%	<1%
5	Lumi Legato Hagerstown, MD	1648 ± 57	100%	48%	8%	2%	<1%
13	Stephanie Traub Washington, DC	1660 ± 47	62%	9%	5%	1%	<1%
7	Doru Zuba Potomac, MD	1635 ± 53	100%	29%	9%	2%	<1%
12	Shawn Hillman Potomac, MD	1625 ± 61	36%	15%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Steven Muse Hagerstown, MD	1584 ± 98	46%	16%	2%	<1%	<1%
11	Francis Parks Rockville, MD	1597 ± 63	54%	20%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Douglas J Malcolm Wheaton-Glenmont, MD	1627 ± 59	16%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Justin Allen Glen Burnie, MD	1617 ± 73	38%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
9	Candace Selby Glen Burnie, MD	1612 ± 51	59%	16%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Spencer DesRoches Baltimore, MD	1597 ± 96	30%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
19	Carlos Velez Parts Unknown, MD	1569 ± 74	51%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Kaelan Etzler Frederick, MD	1582 ± 59	41%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14	Richard Kennison Ellicott City, MD	1564 ± 67	49%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MASSACHUSETTS

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MASSACHUSETTS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
8	Bowen Kerins Salem, MA	1865 ± 67	98%	81%	71%	64%
3	Joe Lemire Hopkinton, MA	1726 ± 59	74%	68%	53%	12%
5	Nick Zendejas Northglenn, CO	1730 ± 116	92%	80%	16%	11%
1	Eric Geddes Peabody, MA	1751 ± 71	92%	19%	12%	9%
7	Kenny Weiner Stoneham, MA	1643 ± 76	74%	45%	17%	2%
2	Kevin Duffy MA Waltham, MA	1628 ± 61	66%	34%	11%	<1%
14	Ryan Belisle Bristol, CT	1641 ± 57	26%	19%	11%	<1%
15	Jonny Forance Southampton, MA	1573 ± 86	34%	12%	3%	<1%
4	Dan Wilga Hadley, MA	1592 ± 71	59%	11%	<1%	<1%
11	Ed Jacques Chicopee, MA	1564 ± 61	59%	9%	3%	<1%
13	Andrew Stevens Ware, MA	1560 ± 59	41%	5%	<1%	<1%
10	Keith Merrill Warren, MA	1558 ± 61	26%	9%	2%	<1%
6	Tones Smith Parts Unknown, MA	1536 ± 59	41%	4%	1%	<1%
16	Daniel Reigner Parts Unknown, MA	1571 ± 61	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Patrick Burns Holyoke, MA	1548 ± 73	8%	4%	<1%	<1%
9	Lee Fernandes Palmer, MA	1592 ± 59	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MICHIGAN

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MICHIGAN
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Alex Harmon Spring Lake, MI	1811 ± 94	100%	81%	57%	36%	21%
1	Sterling Mitoska Brooklyn, MI	1806 ± 61	100%	79%	59%	34%	20%
12	Jared August West Bloomfield Township, MI	1821 ± 71	84%	54%	42%	27%	17%
2	Matthew Stacks Grand Rapids, MI	1795 ± 65	100%	65%	48%	26%	13%
3	Rodney Minch Grand Rapids, MI	1755 ± 61	100%	85%	34%	17%	7%
5	Dominic Labella Bay City, MI	1769 ± 51	100%	41%	27%	13%	6%
24	Chris Tabaka Jackson, MI	1750 ± 76	82%	70%	27%	11%	5%
18	Andrew Rosa II Lansing, MI	1758 ± 80	62%	24%	15%	7%	3%
20	tyrus eagle Ypsilanti, MI	1747 ± 63	67%	43%	15%	7%	3%
7	Ethan Magnum Parts Unknown, MI	1723 ± 61	100%	59%	20%	7%	2%
17	Phil Harmon Fremont, MI	1720 ± 88	71%	18%	9%	3%	1%
4	Rick Knopik Evansville, IN	1703 ± 78	100%	42%	11%	3%	<1%
15	Noah Oesterle Kalamazoo, MI	1718 ± 71	38%	11%	6%	2%	<1%
11	Matt Currie Portage, MI	1706 ± 78	64%	14%	6%	2%	<1%
23	Jim Droski Kalamazoo, MI	1706 ± 71	57%	25%	7%	2%	<1%
13	Sean Burke Waterford Township, MI	1692 ± 67	33%	16%	3%	<1%	<1%
21	Brian Keillor Lansing, MI	1695 ± 65	16%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	Josh Bauer Lansing, MI	1681 ± 71	43%	16%	4%	<1%	<1%
14	Mike Stewart Jr Grand Blanc, MI	1639 ± 59	72%	13%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Nick Campbell Milford Charter Township, MI	1662 ± 71	36%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Alex Darling Grand Rapids, MI	1648 ± 69	29%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
9	Tom Deemter Hudsonville, MI	1632 ± 80	18%	10%	2%	<1%	<1%
8	Jason Humphrey Jackson, MI	1616 ± 61	100%	20%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Jamie Abbott Merrill, MI	1565 ± 67	28%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MINNESOTA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MINNESOTA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
9	Mark Larson Parts Unknown, Earth	1839 ± 76	94%	83%	70%	55%	42%
18	David Marcis Saint Paul, MN	1788 ± 69	72%	51%	38%	26%	13%
5	Eric Fryc Minneapolis, MN	1765 ± 57	100%	69%	46%	18%	11%
6	Tony Midtling Parts Unknown, MN	1750 ± 59	100%	71%	47%	25%	10%
1	Chris Frame St Paul, MN	1723 ± 55	100%	68%	18%	8%	4%
3	Nathan Reardon Parts Unknown, MN	1711 ± 47	100%	66%	29%	12%	3%
7	Trevor Klungseth Ham Lake, MN	1716 ± 57	100%	58%	23%	11%	3%
2	Adam Turgeson Coon Rapids, MN	1715 ± 63	100%	35%	19%	9%	3%
4	Dan Hammond Chaska, MN	1709 ± 49	100%	53%	20%	6%	2%
13	Jim Hartley Parts Unknown, Earth	1718 ± 69	76%	40%	17%	5%	2%
11	Matthew Sitko Saint Paul, MN	1695 ± 51	68%	23%	11%	4%	1%
12	Jared Eshelman Parts Unknown, Earth	1714 ± 57	57%	19%	10%	3%	1%
10	Bryan Moen Parts Unknown, MN	1702 ± 57	62%	28%	10%	4%	1%
15	Tate Nahorniak Norwood Young America, MN	1712 ± 67	28%	14%	7%	3%	<1%
8	Terry Weber Northfield, MN	1686 ± 63	100%	15%	6%	2%	<1%
14	Zach Schuster Saint Paul, MN	1676 ± 65	67%	26%	9%	3%	<1%
21	Aaron Hanson Minneapolis, MN	1692 ± 63	43%	12%	6%	1%	<1%
17	Louis Acre-Kendall Cambridge, MN	1680 ± 49	64%	23%	4%	1%	<1%
23	Keith Hanson Shakopee, MN	1663 ± 53	38%	13%	3%	1%	<1%
22	Jack Copeland Minneapolis, MN	1635 ± 53	32%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Marshall Hilgemann Minneapolis, MN	1635 ± 55	36%	9%	1%	<1%	<1%
19	Whitney Lindaas Minneapolis, MN	1619 ± 45	33%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
20	Jesse Robinson Forest Lake, MN	1624 ± 59	24%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%
24	Lenny Passofaro Parts Unknown, Earth	1632 ± 73	6%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MISSISSIPPI

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MISSISSIPPI
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
10	Nick Mueller Parts Unknown, FL	1798 ± 86	93%	85%	72%	53%
1	Steve Dobbins Corinth, MS	1738 ± 86	95%	81%	72%	32%
3	Carson Thaxton Flowood, MS	1690 ± 84	90%	69%	19%	9%
4	Jared King Parts Unknown, Earth	1601 ± 69	62%	44%	10%	1%
2	John McNaughton Jackson, MS	1634 ± 71	73%	10%	4%	1%
8	Jessica Thaxton Flowood, MS	1612 ± 67	64%	13%	8%	1%
11	Emma King Starkville, MS	1591 ± 76	50%	13%	2%	<1%
13	Stephen Thaxton Flowood, MS	1564 ± 71	38%	24%	3%	<1%
6	Kevin Keniston Brandon, MS	1593 ± 112	50%	14%	2%	<1%
5	Brandon Chapman Flowood, MS	1547 ± 73	71%	27%	3%	<1%
9	Connor Thaxton Flowood, MS	1566 ± 82	36%	5%	2%	<1%
7	Eddie Underhill Memphis, TN	1604 ± 51	7%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Jason Huie Parts Unknown, Earth	1557 ± 67	27%	1%	<1%	<1%
12	Leslie Sinclair Parts Unknown, MS	1477 ± 74	29%	6%	<1%	<1%
14	Amanda Turner Starkville, MS	1521 ± 69	10%	4%	<1%	<1%
16	David Dent Ridgeland, MS	1519 ± 73	5%	1%	<1%	<1%

MISSOURI

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MISSOURI
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	John Miller MO St. Louis, MO	1824 ± 67	100%	90%	61%	53%	33%
3	Adam McKinnie Columbia, MO	1806 ± 65	100%	70%	41%	29%	16%
6	Steve Hill MO Kansas City, MO	1795 ± 57	100%	82%	43%	29%	15%
8	Carleton Plourde St. Louis, MO	1783 ± 59	100%	85%	34%	26%	14%
7	Josh Noble Columbia, MO	1762 ± 82	100%	82%	58%	24%	11%
13	Mike Kruetzkamp Kansas City, MO	1721 ± 61	65%	42%	28%	7%	3%
2	Kendell Holder St. Louis, MO	1713 ± 67	100%	67%	28%	8%	2%
19	Max Koeckeritz Shawnee, KS	1749 ± 74	60%	20%	8%	4%	2%
5	Steve Rolsing St. Louis, MO	1673 ± 55	100%	55%	25%	4%	<1%
4	Brennan Sullivan St. Louis, MO	1671 ± 59	100%	41%	21%	4%	<1%
14	Bob Caldwell St. Louis, MO	1712 ± 61	40%	9%	3%	1%	<1%
11	Ryan Willenbrock St. Louis, MO	1691 ± 59	83%	17%	4%	2%	<1%
20	Kraig Blaeuer Kansas City, MO	1670 ± 61	35%	17%	9%	1%	<1%
21	Dan Sexauer St. Louis, MO	1657 ± 57	51%	22%	9%	1%	<1%
9	Chris Ward St. Louis, MO	1664 ± 71	64%	11%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Shane Yozzo Lawrence, KS	1670 ± 63	63%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Sunshine Bon Columbia, MO	1656 ± 65	49%	22%	9%	1%	<1%
10	Mike Howard St. Louis, MO	1659 ± 57	66%	14%	6%	<1%	<1%
18	Haley Huber Ballwin, MO	1659 ± 59	56%	20%	5%	<1%	<1%
15	Steve Smith MO Saint Charles, MO	1640 ± 59	44%	13%	3%	<1%	<1%
24	Dave Rush Ballwin, MO	1619 ± 61	36%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	Ky Hunt St. Louis, MO	1608 ± 114	34%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
17	Zach Pilger St. Louis, MO	1624 ± 86	37%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Scott Morrow St. Louis, MO	1568 ± 55	17%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

MONTANA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: MONTANA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	John Carls Missoula, MT	1716 ± 65	96%	90%	66%	51%
3	Gabe Stinchfield Missoula, MT	1662 ± 65	84%	59%	23%	14%
4	Daniel Gustin Missoula, MT	1634 ± 67	98%	70%	41%	14%
1	Derek Schaff Missoula, MT	1640 ± 71	68%	54%	31%	11%
6	Jacob Principe Missoula, MT	1608 ± 104	80%	32%	8%	4%
5	Andrew Mahlen Missoula, MT	1575 ± 76	85%	28%	12%	2%
16	Daniel Berry Missoula, MT	1579 ± 125	32%	21%	9%	2%
8	Mitch Whitener Missoula, MT	1547 ± 76	74%	21%	6%	1%
14	Chris Murphy MT Missoula, MT	1530 ± 102	16%	5%	<1%	<1%
10	Phil Principe Missoula, MT	1518 ± 90	57%	5%	<1%	<1%
7	Larry Turville Missoula, MT	1497 ± 74	43%	3%	<1%	<1%
11	Jered Royan Missoula, MT	1497 ± 78	20%	3%	<1%	<1%
9	Joshua Harwood Missoula, MT	1465 ± 82	26%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Mackenzie Gaunt Missoula, MT	1480 ± 127	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Shane Hall Parts Unknown, MT	1439 ± 88	15%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	Kendra Bell Missoula, MT	1354 ± 100	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NEBRASKA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEBRASKA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Tiler Hall Omaha, NE	1811 ± 100	96%	90%	71%	47%
5	Matt Niksick Omaha, NE	1769 ± 96	92%	77%	47%	22%
1	Tyler Zimmerman Omaha, NE	1753 ± 69	92%	82%	43%	18%
2	Geoff Davis Omaha, NE	1728 ± 63	89%	73%	23%	10%
4	Alex Wilson Omaha, NE	1661 ± 69	81%	19%	6%	1%
7	Mark Thimijan Lincoln, NE	1629 ± 80	70%	18%	2%	<1%
6	Justin Babb Omaha, NE	1615 ± 69	66%	6%	2%	<1%
9	Kara Galle Omaha, NE	1606 ± 88	70%	12%	2%	<1%
12	Brock Otto Parts Unknown, Earth	1582 ± 74	8%	3%	<1%	<1%
10	Josh Weatherly Parts Unknown, Earth	1563 ± 65	30%	5%	<1%	<1%
16	Ash Preheim Omaha, NE	1570 ± 84	8%	4%	<1%	<1%
14	Todd Bowder Parts Unknown, Earth	1582 ± 80	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	Eli Kass Lincoln, NE	1567 ± 92	11%	4%	<1%	<1%
8	Victor Garcia Omaha, NE	1539 ± 59	30%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Johnny Garcia Omaha, NE	1545 ± 67	19%	1%	<1%	<1%
11	Greg Cuff Omaha, NE	1560 ± 69	34%	2%	<1%	<1%

NEVADA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEVADA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Steve Strom Las Vegas, NV	1818 ± 73	100%	89%	77%	64%	39%
9	Jack Slovacek Parts Unknown, Earth	1809 ± 71	98%	86%	59%	39%	23%
13	Sean Stewart Parts Unknown, Earth	1790 ± 73	83%	72%	49%	25%	13%
1	Ted McGinty Sparks, NV	1763 ± 84	100%	78%	33%	17%	8%
5	Brandon Hart Reno, NV	1747 ± 80	100%	78%	37%	14%	6%
2	Jeffrey Neumann Reno, NV	1716 ± 63	100%	73%	43%	13%	4%
10	Joe Anthes Las Vegas, NV	1702 ± 74	68%	38%	20%	5%	2%
7	Brad Lamkin Reno, NV	1687 ± 82	100%	50%	24%	6%	2%
3	Craig Sengstock Las Vegas, NV	1672 ± 59	100%	54%	10%	4%	<1%
14	Mark Gilmore Las Vegas, NV	1676 ± 63	66%	34%	6%	3%	<1%
11	Tom Neighbors Las Vegas, NV	1677 ± 86	67%	10%	5%	2%	<1%
8	Dan Armstrong Reno, NV	1661 ± 71	100%	14%	4%	<1%	<1%
12	Brian Mundo Parts Unknown, NV	1663 ± 69	68%	18%	5%	1%	<1%
17	Jay M Kinney Las Vegas, NV	1671 ± 59	58%	14%	3%	<1%	<1%
18	Steve Rowe Reno, NV	1644 ± 84	57%	17%	6%	1%	<1%
4	Mark Skoff Reno, NV	1642 ± 76	100%	18%	5%	<1%	<1%
23	Matt Newburg Las Vegas, NV	1644 ± 67	32%	12%	4%	<1%	<1%
20	Manny Costa Las Vegas, NV	1667 ± 59	17%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
19	Ben Hoak Reno, NV	1624 ± 84	34%	12%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Chris Minedew Reno, NV	1644 ± 76	42%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
22	Anthony Spatucci Stateline, NV	1620 ± 63	33%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	Greg Wright Reno, NV	1622 ± 78	43%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
21	Cody Laux Reno, NV	1604 ± 74	32%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Daniela Sonnino Sparks, NV	1530 ± 67	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NEW BRUNSWICK

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW BRUNSWICK
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Chris Yuill Fredericton, NB	1629 ± 106	81%	56%	34%	24%
3	Dylan Papazian-Clare Fredericton, NB	1626 ± 108	81%	60%	34%	23%
8	Brandon Baxter Parts Unknown, Earth	1592 ± 127	69%	55%	35%	17%
5	Tom MacArthur Saint John, NB	1568 ± 98	58%	39%	21%	8%
7	Rod Beaton Moncton, NB	1579 ± 100	62%	26%	12%	7%
6	Hayden Agar Parts Unknown, Earth	1560 ± 125	76%	28%	11%	6%
12	Hailey Heslop Fredericton, NB	1537 ± 110	42%	25%	11%	3%
13	Mike O’Reilly Parts Unknown, Earth	1524 ± 125	69%	28%	11%	3%
9	June Madeley Parts Unknown, NB	1527 ± 102	31%	20%	9%	3%
1	Jeremy Nowlan Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	72%	22%	9%	2%
10	Albert Agar London, ON	1539 ± 102	38%	12%	4%	2%
14	Tyler Beaton Parts Unknown, NS	1500 ± 294	19%	8%	2%	<1%
15	Michaela Finnamore Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	19%	6%	2%	<1%
4	Denny LeClair Parts Unknown, Earth	1456 ± 102	31%	7%	2%	<1%
11	Alex Longmire Saint John, NB	1468 ± 112	24%	4%	<1%	<1%
16	Keith Laursen Parts Unknown, Earth	1412 ± 123	28%	3%	<1%	<1%

NEW HAMPSHIRE

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Brian O’Neill NH Portsmouth, NH	1734 ± 53	89%	77%	59%	38%
2	Seamus Meader Somerville, MA	1715 ± 65	96%	76%	53%	30%
6	Vincent Vitiello Bolton, MA	1682 ± 67	78%	56%	26%	12%
5	Cody Gamache Andover, MA	1661 ± 73	63%	40%	15%	7%
4	Chris Brunette Londonderry, NH	1631 ± 94	70%	32%	10%	3%
3	Derek Correia Manchester, NH	1626 ± 67	70%	27%	8%	3%
7	Zheanna Murray North Andover, MA	1626 ± 73	69%	19%	8%	3%
12	Jillian Towne Parts Unknown, NH	1624 ± 65	37%	20%	6%	2%
9	Allison O’Neill San Francisco, CA	1605 ± 65	61%	13%	5%	1%
11	Marc Patenaude Boston, MA	1582 ± 73	22%	10%	2%	<1%
8	Matt Lemoine Dover, NH	1570 ± 55	39%	6%	2%	<1%
13	Adam Meader Parts Unknown, Earth	1563 ± 67	30%	8%	1%	<1%
16	Michael Corbett MA Ayer, MA	1573 ± 73	11%	5%	1%	<1%
10	Alan Maclean Litchfield, NH	1561 ± 96	31%	4%	1%	<1%
14	Sam Keogh Amherst, NH	1561 ± 69	30%	7%	1%	<1%
15	Mike Gaudet Parts Unknown, NH	1480 ± 74	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NEW JERSEY

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW JERSEY
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Anthony Lambos Jr Hamburg, NJ	1814 ± 57	93%	86%	78%	71%
2	Craig Cash Bloomfield, NJ	1662 ± 55	77%	47%	29%	6%
6	Steve Drabik Far Hills, NJ	1656 ± 51	74%	49%	27%	5%
4	John Hurd NJ Erma, NJ	1663 ± 59	55%	41%	8%	4%
7	Ken Rossi Somers Point, NJ	1644 ± 63	64%	32%	18%	3%
13	Matt Falzone Jersey City, NJ	1647 ± 71	45%	32%	6%	3%
3	Robert Salamon Wayne, NJ	1616 ± 47	63%	29%	12%	2%
8	Douglas Salamon Wayne, NJ	1632 ± 53	61%	7%	3%	2%
10	Anthony Lambos Sr Hamburg, NJ	1598 ± 63	36%	14%	6%	<1%
5	Francesco La Rocca New York, NY	1592 ± 73	65%	20%	2%	<1%
16	Matt Pursglove Audubon, NJ	1618 ± 67	7%	4%	2%	<1%
9	Joshua Senzer Parts Unknown, Earth	1596 ± 57	39%	3%	1%	<1%
11	Cate Treese Parts Unknown, NJ	1574 ± 53	26%	11%	3%	<1%
14	Drew Greco Parts Unknown, NJ	1573 ± 49	37%	12%	3%	<1%
12	Russell Davis Hackettstown, NJ	1544 ± 67	35%	7%	<1%	<1%
15	David Balsamini Parts Unknown, NJ	1566 ± 57	23%	7%	2%	<1%

NEW MEXICO

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW MEXICO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Matt Wilson Evanston, IL	1750 ± 80	81%	46%	35%	22%
3	Ben Cressy Albuquerque, NM	1752 ± 86	76%	42%	33%	21%
4	Jacob Shattuck Albuquerque, NM	1732 ± 90	81%	60%	37%	19%
1	Nick Schademann Albuquerque, NM	1727 ± 98	79%	56%	33%	17%
2	Adam Abeyta Albuquerque, NM	1674 ± 90	86%	53%	16%	7%
5	Larry McDonald Albuquerque, NM	1663 ± 92	74%	27%	11%	4%
8	Andrew McFarland Albuquerque, NM	1668 ± 94	63%	25%	10%	3%
7	Erik Skogen Parts Unknown, NM	1655 ± 90	70%	35%	9%	3%
14	Curt Jacobson Albuquerque, NM	1662 ± 102	24%	8%	4%	2%
9	David Lopez TX El Paso, TX	1624 ± 86	37%	10%	3%	<1%
11	Mandy Peel Las Cruces, NM	1636 ± 74	19%	4%	2%	<1%
16	Sambo Rambo Albuquerque, NM	1617 ± 104	21%	8%	2%	<1%
13	Dustin Chavez Albuquerque, NM	1616 ± 96	19%	8%	2%	<1%
10	Meghan Shattuck Albuquerque, NM	1586 ± 84	30%	9%	1%	<1%
12	Wes Trudell Tijeras, NM	1580 ± 96	26%	5%	<1%	<1%
15	Natalie Jackson Albuquerque, NM	1531 ± 80	14%	3%	<1%	<1%

NEW YORK

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NEW YORK
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
9	Dante Oliva Raleigh, NC	1842 ± 82	98%	86%	73%	61%	46%
6	Jerry Bernard Patterson, NY	1783 ± 69	100%	71%	51%	34%	16%
15	Alberto Santana New York, NY	1765 ± 61	63%	36%	28%	15%	7%
2	Adam Robinson New York, NY	1740 ± 69	100%	48%	34%	16%	6%
3	Adam Cane Parts Unknown, NY	1721 ± 65	100%	81%	30%	14%	4%
4	Ron Hallett Jr. Albany, NY	1724 ± 69	100%	57%	34%	10%	4%
1	Greg Poverelli New York, NY	1717 ± 63	100%	61%	14%	7%	3%
11	Andy Cushman North Syracuse, NY	1729 ± 86	79%	27%	16%	8%	3%
20	Sanjay Shah Parts Unknown, NJ	1721 ± 71	63%	31%	18%	5%	2%
5	Eric Russell CNY North Syracuse, NY	1694 ± 82	100%	54%	23%	5%	2%
18	Bruce Nightingale Rochester, NY	1721 ± 84	37%	16%	11%	4%	1%
12	Frank Romero Rockland County, NY	1696 ± 55	61%	32%	14%	3%	1%
7	Chris Cafaro New York, NY	1673 ± 63	100%	55%	16%	4%	1%
8	Christopher CJ Smith Brooklyn, NY	1690 ± 82	100%	14%	6%	3%	<1%
16	Greg Lapa Buffalo, NY	1690 ± 82	57%	24%	4%	2%	<1%
23	Jared Lemankiewicz Buffalo, NY	1672 ± 82	64%	31%	9%	3%	<1%
13	Zachary Frey Rochester, NY	1677 ± 84	37%	13%	6%	1%	<1%
17	Nitzan Gabai New York, NY	1668 ± 65	43%	15%	2%	1%	<1%
21	Ed Zeltmann East Stroudsburg, PA	1661 ± 71	39%	15%	5%	<1%	<1%
10	Mike Pantino Brooklyn, NY	1627 ± 57	36%	13%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Howard Levine Mountain Dale, NY	1626 ± 61	61%	14%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Eddie Cramer Parts Unknown, NY	1627 ± 61	21%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	JT Harrison Parts Unknown, Earth	1577 ± 59	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14	Nint Hoo Parts Unknown, Earth	1587 ± 55	39%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NORTH CAROLINA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NORTH CAROLINA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Drew Cedolia Greensboro, NC	1890 ± 84	100%	83%	75%	62%	44%
2	Bill Mason Huntersville, NC	1837 ± 76	100%	94%	66%	40%	19%
3	Tim McCool Raleigh, NC	1835 ± 71	100%	81%	64%	36%	17%
1	Kaylee Campbell Charlotte, NC	1794 ± 61	100%	72%	62%	21%	9%
7	Jerrod Lankford Raleigh, NC	1776 ± 74	100%	57%	20%	9%	3%
23	Brian Aiken Raleigh, NC	1769 ± 74	81%	39%	13%	5%	2%
13	Dwain Marchant King, NC	1768 ± 71	54%	10%	6%	3%	1%
17	Bryan Caudill Raleigh, NC	1737 ± 76	72%	24%	18%	4%	1%
6	Jamie Caton Charlotte, NC	1737 ± 67	100%	58%	16%	5%	1%
5	Scott Mott Raleigh, NC	1731 ± 74	100%	58%	9%	4%	1%
11	Luke Faulkenberry Wilmington, NC	1729 ± 78	79%	38%	10%	3%	<1%
19	Justin Lail Morganton, NC	1736 ± 59	74%	17%	9%	2%	<1%
20	Matthew Stapleton NC Kernersville, NC	1755 ± 63	46%	7%	4%	2%	<1%
21	Ovid Dillard Cary, NC	1723 ± 82	67%	32%	5%	2%	<1%
8	Steve McGinn Asheville, NC	1669 ± 55	100%	64%	14%	2%	<1%
15	Kyle Voorhees Asheville, NC	1649 ± 59	60%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	Joe Bollini Asheville, NC	1662 ± 73	28%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
9	Shawn Scott Smith Asheville, NC	1629 ± 55	57%	22%	3%	<1%	<1%
12	Christina Capra Charlotte, NC	1666 ± 69	33%	10%	<1%	<1%	<1%
10	Austin Fanger Asheville, NC	1659 ± 55	19%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Adam Bowman Asheville, NC	1625 ± 57	21%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Jason Keith Durham, NC	1619 ± 67	40%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
14	Adam Yates Asheville, NC	1653 ± 53	26%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Brendan Newman Asheville, NC	1607 ± 57	43%	13%	1%	<1%	<1%

NORTH DAKOTA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NORTH DAKOTA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Brett Wollschlaeger Parts Unknown, ND	1753 ± 129	95%	83%	60%	50%
1	Dan Stephney Fargo, ND	1693 ± 61	97%	68%	27%	19%
6	Jamie Woodward US Moorhead, MN	1660 ± 120	78%	47%	35%	12%
3	Josh Kemmer Parts Unknown, MN	1643 ± 127	76%	39%	28%	9%
2	Tim Fiechtner Fargo, ND	1599 ± 137	65%	45%	17%	3%
8	Mike Moberg West Fargo, ND	1626 ± 67	51%	16%	4%	2%
9	Bill Brooks Parts Unknown, ND	1628 ± 122	49%	16%	4%	2%
5	Ryan Babb Fargo, ND	1607 ± 172	54%	9%	3%	1%
12	Justin A Johnson Parts Unknown, Earth	1591 ± 125	46%	6%	2%	<1%
15	Mike Jacobson Minneapolis, MN	1550 ± 57	35%	20%	5%	<1%
14	Jeremy Tommerdahl Fargo, ND	1550 ± 180	24%	7%	3%	<1%
7	Will Reul West Fargo, ND	1541 ± 125	57%	22%	5%	<1%
11	William Brooks Fargo, ND	1558 ± 125	22%	7%	3%	<1%
10	Mike Reul Fargo, ND	1516 ± 125	43%	13%	2%	<1%
13	Adam Foltz West Fargo, ND	1523 ± 135	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Paul Hansen Fargo, ND	1426 ± 186	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

NOVA SCOTIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: NOVA SCOTIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Riley MacDonald Parts Unknown, NS	1721 ± 112	80%	71%	55%	45%
4	Peter St. George Halifax, NS	1647 ± 108	85%	60%	24%	15%
3	Doug Parsons Beaver Bank, NS	1633 ± 106	74%	54%	34%	13%
2	John Greatwich Halifax, NS	1611 ± 92	89%	56%	31%	10%
16	Will Burns Parts Unknown, NS	1609 ± 163	20%	13%	6%	3%
5	Brennen Breen Halifax, NS	1591 ± 110	62%	24%	6%	3%
6	Magen Savary Halifax, NS	1570 ± 106	69%	27%	11%	3%
7	Enoch Wu Halifax Regional Municipality, NS	1574 ± 102	53%	23%	10%	2%
9	Andrew Harper Halifax, NS	1572 ± 106	61%	11%	5%	2%
10	Matt Whalen Halifax, NS	1564 ± 135	47%	19%	8%	2%
14	Aaron Wallace Parts Unknown, NS	1545 ± 135	26%	12%	4%	<1%
12	Brian Audain Parts Unknown, Earth	1549 ± 129	38%	11%	2%	<1%
8	Jason Forrest Halifax, NS	1536 ± 98	39%	5%	2%	<1%
11	Adam Durling Middle Sackville, NS	1507 ± 88	31%	7%	2%	<1%
13	Robert Basha Parts Unknown, Earth	1510 ± 102	15%	5%	<1%	<1%
15	Fred Lai Parts Unknown, Earth	1449 ± 90	11%	2%	<1%	<1%

OHIO

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: OHIO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
2	Stephen Prusa Cleveland, OH	1894 ± 59	100%	93%	78%	61%	45%
1	Gregory Kennedy Plain City, OH	1847 ± 55	100%	66%	53%	36%	17%
6	Andrew Lee Cleveland, OH	1817 ± 71	100%	84%	60%	23%	12%
5	Carlos Delaserda Columbus, OH	1809 ± 57	100%	78%	48%	23%	8%
17	James Scott OH Worthington, OH	1811 ± 92	77%	30%	22%	13%	5%
4	John Delzoppo Cleveland, OH	1779 ± 61	100%	58%	28%	11%	3%
7	Galvin Morgan Olmsted Falls, OH	1773 ± 61	100%	64%	14%	6%	3%
3	Aaron RIch Parts Unknown, Earth	1759 ± 59	100%	72%	28%	6%	2%
8	Jesse Baker Cincinnati, OH	1753 ± 55	100%	75%	20%	8%	2%
13	Rod Lawrence Cleveland, OH	1766 ± 84	59%	27%	11%	4%	<1%
10	Zak Bowers Cleveland, OH	1746 ± 71	68%	28%	5%	2%	<1%
12	Mark Brown OH Cleveland, OH	1723 ± 65	63%	16%	6%	1%	<1%
20	Ross Bergantino Columbus, OH	1734 ± 63	41%	15%	5%	2%	<1%
14	Nick Kennedy Plain, OH	1701 ± 61	65%	21%	5%	<1%	<1%
11	Jack Nebraska Columbus, OH	1691 ± 69	53%	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Joel Bergantino Burlington, KY	1705 ± 65	52%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
16	Bill Taylor Cleveland, OH	1715 ± 74	23%	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
18	Beau Pendleton Columbus, OH	1699 ± 63	48%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
9	Cody Webb Westerville, OH	1685 ± 63	64%	18%	3%	<1%	<1%
22	Matt Waters Columbus, OH	1683 ± 71	47%	7%	3%	<1%	<1%
23	Stuart Nyswonger Cincinnati, OH	1685 ± 57	32%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Tedd Mirgliotta Strongsville, OH	1640 ± 59	36%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Tim Breidenstein Cleveland, OH	1653 ± 65	35%	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	DJ Toth Cleveland, OH	1682 ± 73	37%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%

OKLAHOMA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: OKLAHOMA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
10	Travis Murie Oklahoma City, OK	1809 ± 71	93%	59%	41%	31%	22%
8	Brian Easterwood Tulsa, OK	1749 ± 76	100%	71%	40%	24%	11%
20	Trent Augenstein Delaware, OH	1757 ± 57	69%	56%	38%	22%	11%
18	Kevin Rodriguez Denton, TX	1776 ± 69	76%	54%	25%	17%	10%
1	Austin Trent Oklahoma City, OK	1747 ± 78	100%	70%	38%	22%	10%
7	Jon Stewart Stillwater, OK	1763 ± 71	100%	40%	22%	14%	8%
3	Gary Broxterman Oklahoma City, OK	1731 ± 73	100%	77%	43%	15%	8%
6	Chris Wood Claremore, OK	1728 ± 63	100%	67%	37%	13%	6%
12	Craig Aker Stillwater, OK	1724 ± 76	74%	47%	25%	11%	4%
2	Eric Freimanis Mannford, OK	1702 ± 61	100%	35%	9%	4%	2%
9	Chad Lower Oklahoma City, OK	1696 ± 73	78%	27%	11%	5%	2%
5	Jesse Huber Tulsa, OK	1676 ± 61	100%	43%	16%	5%	1%
16	Brian Daniels Broken Arrow, OK	1694 ± 92	65%	22%	8%	4%	1%
11	Shawn Lee OK Oklahoma City, OK	1689 ± 74	71%	27%	12%	3%	1%
13	Chris Kircher Tulsa, OK	1691 ± 63	31%	20%	10%	4%	1%
4	Dean St. Onge Newcastle, OK	1647 ± 67	100%	25%	9%	2%	<1%
15	Austin Kemp Collinsville, TX	1688 ± 82	24%	11%	3%	1%	<1%
14	Adam Nickel Oklahoma City, OK	1654 ± 73	73%	20%	7%	1%	<1%
17	Mike Denton Tulsa, OK	1647 ± 73	35%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
21	Jared Ferree Bartlesville, OK	1640 ± 65	26%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
22	Alan Hamby Tulsa, OK	1618 ± 73	29%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
23	Jason Reeder Tulsa, OK	1613 ± 61	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Brandon Lake Tulsa, OK	1576 ± 74	27%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Kate Olivia Pierce Oklahoma City, OK	1595 ± 74	22%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

ONTARIO

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: ONTARIO
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Mike Savage Toronto, ON	1758 ± 61	100%	92%	72%	56%	36%
6	Jack Tadman Winnipeg, MB	1735 ± 61	100%	85%	62%	37%	20%
7	John Flitton Mount Albert, ON	1720 ± 78	100%	74%	44%	24%	12%
5	Nick Greenen Kitchener, ON	1692 ± 84	100%	71%	52%	20%	9%
2	Jeff Teolis Burlington, ON	1700 ± 59	100%	61%	30%	15%	7%
3	Jason McKay Toronto, ON	1673 ± 67	100%	75%	28%	12%	5%
9	Mike Dymus London, ON	1662 ± 71	86%	46%	12%	6%	2%
8	Steven Machado Mississauga, ON	1653 ± 63	100%	52%	13%	6%	2%
15	Shaun Russell Saint Thomas, Earth	1678 ± 82	61%	27%	12%	5%	2%
10	David Cowling Toronto, ON	1648 ± 53	62%	18%	7%	3%	<1%
12	Laura Edward Toronto, ON	1630 ± 57	56%	17%	9%	2%	<1%
20	Colin Parker ON Georgetown, ON	1629 ± 69	52%	29%	11%	3%	<1%
4	Shane Jackson Toronto, ON	1607 ± 55	100%	45%	14%	3%	<1%
13	Chris Moxley Kitchener, ON	1620 ± 63	48%	26%	9%	2%	<1%
18	Myles Cameron Oakville, ON	1644 ± 74	39%	13%	4%	1%	<1%
21	Walt Morose Toronto, ON	1610 ± 63	44%	11%	5%	1%	<1%
11	Barry Brdar Mississauga, ON	1616 ± 74	69%	12%	5%	1%	<1%
14	Doug Baird Mississauga, ON	1598 ± 65	57%	16%	3%	<1%	<1%
23	Les Kowal Ajax, ON	1608 ± 78	38%	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Gary Wasslen Oakville, ON	1580 ± 63	57%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
19	Adam Natale Toronto, ON	1574 ± 63	43%	9%	1%	<1%	<1%
22	Calvin Reid Toronto, ON	1549 ± 65	31%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Sandy Lum Mississauga, ON	1524 ± 59	14%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Lance Lum Mississauga, ON	1558 ± 59	43%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

OREGON

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: OREGON
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	Colin Urban Portland, OR	1877 ± 76	100%	93%	81%	67%	53%
3	Ken Martin Coatsville, PA	1802 ± 74	100%	87%	58%	41%	16%
1	Dana Valatka Portland, OR	1770 ± 61	100%	78%	53%	15%	8%
2	Mathew Peterson Portland, OR	1749 ± 47	100%	74%	43%	18%	5%
11	Adam Jones Eugene, OR	1765 ± 106	86%	52%	23%	14%	4%
4	Matt Walton Eugene, OR	1745 ± 78	100%	79%	15%	7%	3%
9	Derek Jennings Portland, OR	1744 ± 74	81%	64%	30%	7%	3%
10	Billy Brown III Parts Unknown, Earth	1740 ± 76	84%	50%	26%	10%	2%
6	Erik Graciosa Portland, OR	1729 ± 71	100%	45%	15%	8%	2%
7	James Adamson Portland, OR	1709 ± 57	100%	46%	20%	6%	1%
12	Scott Benoit Portland, OR	1696 ± 69	75%	6%	3%	1%	<1%
17	Rick French Portland, OR	1685 ± 59	85%	22%	9%	1%	<1%
18	Jeff Monroe Eugene, OR	1685 ± 71	70%	22%	8%	2%	<1%
8	Ben Massey Parts Unknown, OR	1642 ± 55	100%	28%	6%	<1%	<1%
19	Nick Higgins Portland, OR	1660 ± 94	55%	7%	2%	<1%	<1%
14	Eric Merchant Fall Creek, OR	1642 ± 69	45%	5%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	Paul Robertson Portland, OR	1625 ± 116	43%	8%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Dylan Snow Portland, OR	1630 ± 65	19%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
20	Mark Humphrey Parts Unknown, OR	1650 ± 71	57%	13%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	Justinn Medina Eugene, OR	1606 ± 63	16%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
15	David Morell Parts Unknown, Earth	1617 ± 51	30%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
16	William Kerney Portland, OR	1550 ± 61	15%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Ahren Gehrman Eugene, OR	1624 ± 76	14%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Casey Shutes Eugene, OR	1610 ± 84	25%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

PENNSYLVANIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: PENNSYLVANIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Lewis Bevans Pittsburgh, PA	1831 ± 65	100%	83%	71%	56%	35%
4	Aleksander Kaczmarczyk Pittsburgh, PA	1815 ± 78	100%	84%	56%	37%	22%
1	Cryss Stephens Parts Unknown, PA	1787 ± 74	100%	81%	71%	36%	18%
2	Jared Schmidt Pittsburgh, PA	1757 ± 61	100%	71%	51%	20%	8%
12	David Riel Pittsburgh, PA	1770 ± 76	90%	52%	22%	12%	5%
5	Bob Choate Philadelphia, PA	1746 ± 71	100%	47%	17%	8%	3%
14	Evan Bookbinder Pittsburgh, PA	1725 ± 73	74%	57%	14%	7%	2%
11	Cliff Albert Parts Unknown, PA	1720 ± 65	83%	17%	10%	5%	1%
10	Jay Robinson Parts Unknown, Earth	1705 ± 74	55%	33%	13%	3%	<1%
15	Nathan Eppley New Cumberland, PA	1700 ± 104	79%	27%	15%	4%	<1%
16	Daniel Gilbert Trappe, PA	1687 ± 73	77%	18%	12%	3%	<1%
7	Stephen Le Chesterbrook, PA	1674 ± 96	100%	44%	13%	3%	<1%
20	Gary Hartz Pittsburgh, PA	1702 ± 57	80%	15%	5%	2%	<1%
23	Mahesh Murthy Pittsburgh, PA	1685 ± 76	45%	24%	8%	2%	<1%
9	Corey Hulse Schwenksville, PA	1655 ± 76	83%	52%	11%	2%	<1%
3	Tony Makowski Lansdale, PA	1630 ± 59	100%	28%	3%	<1%	<1%
19	Tessa Morton Malvern, PA	1645 ± 73	26%	15%	2%	<1%	<1%
8	Tony Lastowka Philadelphia, PA	1610 ± 63	100%	43%	5%	<1%	<1%
13	Matt Gusler Philadelphia, PA	1591 ± 137	20%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Michael Reimer Collegeville, PA	1597 ± 65	21%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Brandon Service Collegeville, PA	1599 ± 67	10%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Joel Zingone Parts Unknown, PA	1598 ± 59	17%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Brad Ladutko Parts Unknown, Earth	1527 ± 112	17%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Thomas Fernandez Parts Unknown, PA	1597 ± 71	23%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

QUEBEC

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: QUEBEC
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Ben Dowie Montreal, QC	1751 ± 100	84%	63%	48%	32%
9	Adam Kiesler Montreal, QC	1722 ± 125	87%	58%	41%	22%
1	Jonathan Dubreuil Montreal, QC	1688 ± 80	77%	35%	21%	10%
4	David Bourque Parts Unknown, Earth	1684 ± 88	63%	44%	20%	9%
2	Francis Lavoie Gravel Montreal, QC	1667 ± 90	83%	44%	16%	7%
7	Mike Casselman Ottawa, ON	1675 ± 82	64%	37%	14%	6%
6	Christophe Blondel Montreal, QC	1675 ± 106	59%	20%	11%	5%
13	David Bergeron Parts Unknown, Earth	1641 ± 94	37%	22%	7%	2%
5	Jean-Michel St-Aubin Montreal, QC	1624 ± 90	65%	25%	7%	2%
11	Robi Awakim Gatineau, QC	1643 ± 120	41%	11%	5%	2%
10	Pat Lampron Montreal, QC	1628 ± 84	36%	16%	4%	1%
14	Antoine Charton Parts Unknown, Earth	1616 ± 118	16%	5%	2%	<1%
16	Nathan Van Horn Montreal, QC	1592 ± 100	23%	5%	2%	<1%
12	Benoit Bisson Montreal, QC	1576 ± 92	35%	9%	2%	<1%
8	James Parsons Montreal, QC	1573 ± 92	13%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Serge Hébert Montreal, QC	1545 ± 94	17%	3%	<1%	<1%

RHODE ISLAND

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: RHODE ISLAND
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	Nick DeStefano Holliston, MA	1772 ± 74	53%	43%	34%	25%
11	Kyle Mcfatter Canton, MA	1762 ± 94	47%	37%	28%	20%
1	Ed Giardina Providence, RI	1709 ± 74	93%	55%	45%	19%
2	Matt Petrarca Johnston, RI	1697 ± 94	91%	72%	25%	14%
9	Zoe Vrabel Boston, MA	1690 ± 55	89%	42%	33%	12%
3	James McFatter Dedham, MA	1661 ± 73	98%	20%	10%	4%
4	Justin Fontaine Parts Unknown, RI	1612 ± 96	86%	60%	16%	3%
10	Mike Schmitt Parts Unknown, MA	1604 ± 61	67%	19%	3%	<1%
5	Jared Ose Providence, RI	1561 ± 112	82%	33%	5%	<1%
7	Jack Shanahan Taunton, MA	1549 ± 104	33%	6%	<1%	<1%
8	Christopher Cardaci Parts Unknown, Earth	1531 ± 84	11%	1%	<1%	<1%
15	Aaron Ciardullo Stonington, CT	1520 ± 96	9%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Quinn Miller Providence, RI	1500 ± 294	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
13	Andrew Hill Parts Unknown, RI	1468 ± 94	14%	4%	<1%	<1%
12	Dave Rabinowitz North Attleborough, MA	1446 ± 80	18%	3%	<1%	<1%
14	Amber Lee RI Providence, RI	1389 ± 73	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

SASKATCHEWAN

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: SASKATCHEWAN
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Shaun Amos Regina, SK	1815 ± 76	96%	89%	77%	53%
3	Bob Rhinelander Regina, SK	1772 ± 73	97%	77%	49%	23%
2	Matt Wason Regina, SK	1744 ± 74	89%	55%	26%	10%
7	Josh Pidskalny Parts Unknown, Earth	1723 ± 106	64%	31%	13%	5%
5	Troy Denet Saskatoon, SK	1691 ± 74	89%	62%	14%	4%
6	Lance Wormsbecker Regina, SK	1682 ± 80	71%	19%	7%	2%
4	Jamie Cossar Regina, SK	1645 ± 82	71%	28%	4%	<1%
10	Dustin Geib Regina, SK	1671 ± 84	36%	12%	4%	<1%
8	Brennon Patterson Regina, SK	1639 ± 78	72%	8%	3%	<1%
11	Kevin Lucier Regina, SK	1608 ± 84	29%	4%	<1%	<1%
16	Jason Tiefenbach Regina, SK	1583 ± 104	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Adam Wason Regina, SK	1572 ± 78	29%	6%	<1%	<1%
15	Brett Schiissler Regina, SK	1585 ± 80	11%	2%	<1%	<1%
9	Julian Nahachewsky Saskatoon, SK	1564 ± 86	28%	1%	<1%	<1%
14	Meghan Pryor Regina, SK	1529 ± 76	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Drew Krieser Regina, SK	1528 ± 82	11%	3%	<1%	<1%

SOUTH CAROLINA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: SOUTH CAROLINA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Nate Grant Pelzer, SC	1809 ± 71	100%	90%	65%	54%	38%
2	Andrew Foard Columbia, SC	1780 ± 73	100%	67%	55%	41%	22%
8	Marcelo Campos Hazan Parts Unknown, SC	1749 ± 80	100%	83%	30%	21%	11%
18	Fred Richardson Columbia, SC	1740 ± 104	81%	31%	22%	15%	6%
3	Lenny Lipkin New York, NY	1715 ± 88	100%	59%	41%	17%	6%
5	Ken Grant Pelzer, SC	1696 ± 69	100%	55%	31%	8%	3%
14	Liam Bradley Parts Unknown, NC	1704 ± 78	66%	30%	20%	8%	3%
12	Travis Kelly Columbia, SC	1702 ± 71	79%	40%	24%	6%	3%
4	David Benke Charleston, SC	1680 ± 69	100%	58%	27%	6%	2%
10	Robert Steinfeldt Rock Hill, SC	1681 ± 61	63%	36%	9%	4%	1%
13	Brett Smith SC Columbia, SC	1673 ± 74	80%	38%	17%	4%	1%
7	Tim Nelson Parts Unknown, CO	1662 ± 74	100%	48%	10%	5%	1%
22	Willard Hipkins Rock Hill, SC	1664 ± 57	55%	33%	13%	3%	<1%
6	Todd Reynolds Parts Unknown, Earth	1635 ± 69	100%	43%	13%	3%	<1%
11	Kim Martinez Columbia, SC	1646 ± 63	45%	24%	8%	2%	<1%
16	Will King Ridgeville, SC	1659 ± 86	76%	9%	3%	1%	<1%
19	Jordan Adams Columbia, SC	1652 ± 84	34%	11%	5%	1%	<1%
23	Daniel Covin Waxhaw, NC	1640 ± 112	37%	16%	3%	1%	<1%
9	Phil Forrester jr Greenville, SC	1641 ± 76	67%	13%	2%	<1%	<1%
15	David Kitch II Parts Unknown, Earth	1625 ± 76	19%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Kris Prasad Simpsonville, SC	1569 ± 76	24%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
21	Mark Gilbert Spartanburg, SC	1594 ± 74	21%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
24	Bryan Merritt Woodruff, SC	1584 ± 82	33%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Pete Gaspich Simpsonville, SC	1568 ± 82	20%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%

SOUTH DAKOTA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: SOUTH DAKOTA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Dan Dolney Sioux Falls, SD	1803 ± 84	96%	89%	62%	49%
13	Tylar Dormaier Parts Unknown, Earth	1759 ± 174	77%	53%	23%	15%
6	Mitchell Muske Parts Unknown, Earth	1715 ± 100	88%	62%	34%	11%
2	Ryan Nelson Parts Unknown, Earth	1708 ± 94	93%	54%	30%	9%
7	Nick Person Parts Unknown, Earth	1699 ± 104	84%	43%	23%	7%
5	Dustin Staadt Parts Unknown, Earth	1700 ± 98	95%	38%	11%	6%
3	Mike Loftus SD Sioux Falls, SD	1652 ± 63	60%	23%	8%	2%
4	Joey Braaten Sioux Falls, SD	1656 ± 112	23%	9%	2%	<1%
8	Ryan Haugan Parts Unknown, Earth	1626 ± 108	64%	7%	2%	<1%
14	Dan Eide Parts Unknown, Earth	1619 ± 163	40%	11%	3%	<1%
11	Kasey Wheeler Parts Unknown, Earth	1563 ± 104	12%	3%	<1%	<1%
9	Brad Eleeson Sioux Falls, SD	1582 ± 120	36%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Matt Paysen Parts Unknown, Earth	1572 ± 127	4%	2%	<1%	<1%
10	Dani Dinkum Sioux Falls, SD	1568 ± 76	16%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Kevin Allender Parts Unknown, Earth	1500 ± 294	7%	<1%	<1%	<1%
12	Tyler Hall Parts Unknown, Earth	1480 ± 108	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%

TENNESSEE

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: TENNESSEE
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
6	matt majewski Nashville, TN	1767 ± 65	100%	85%	55%	35%	20%
1	Jason Wilson TN Smyrna, TN	1774 ± 55	100%	74%	52%	32%	20%
2	Tanner Wade Bartlett, TN	1739 ± 53	100%	79%	50%	25%	12%
5	Tyler Coe Parts Unknown, Earth	1754 ± 57	100%	56%	38%	20%	11%
3	Austin Carrigan Smyrna, TN	1731 ± 53	100%	71%	32%	18%	8%
12	Casey Reed Nashville, TN	1753 ± 67	82%	41%	28%	15%	8%
8	Caleb Dirks Nashville, TN	1719 ± 63	100%	62%	25%	11%	5%
10	Colton Morgan Memphis, TN	1710 ± 57	80%	45%	21%	9%	3%
4	Bill Baggett Memphis, TN	1696 ± 51	100%	57%	20%	7%	3%
7	Justin Fitzgerald Columbia, TN	1690 ± 74	100%	50%	21%	7%	2%
16	Brandon Brocius Nashville, TN	1710 ± 69	69%	21%	11%	5%	2%
13	Tyler Campbell Nashville, TN	1693 ± 55	81%	40%	13%	5%	2%
9	Ian Cushman Nashville, TN	1697 ± 61	71%	31%	10%	4%	1%
14	Brian Oliver Nashville, TN	1678 ± 51	78%	26%	8%	3%	<1%
15	Joe Farnsworth Nashville, TN	1652 ± 61	62%	15%	6%	1%	<1%
11	Scott Woods Jonesboro, AR	1649 ± 55	61%	11%	3%	<1%	<1%
17	Asa Yopp Arlington, TN	1649 ± 63	31%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
21	David Yopp Arlington, TN	1634 ± 57	18%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Keith Richter Memphis, TN	1612 ± 51	38%	6%	1%	<1%	<1%
24	Greeley Oliver Nashville, TN	1632 ± 49	29%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%
23	Jay Trask Paris, TN	1597 ± 63	20%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Jess Blumenfeld Memphis, TN	1611 ± 63	39%	4%	1%	<1%	<1%
19	Kevin Hale Memphis, TN	1577 ± 53	22%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
20	Richard Rickman Parts Unknown, TN	1577 ± 53	19%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%

TEXAS

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: TEXAS
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
14	Colin MacAlpine Austin, TX	1891 ± 80	92%	62%	41%	28%	19%
2	Garrett Shahan Denton, TX	1859 ± 65	100%	85%	64%	30%	18%
6	Brian Krivonak Corpus Christi, TX	1859 ± 51	100%	80%	38%	23%	13%
20	Preston Moncla Beaumont, TX	1857 ± 110	88%	50%	37%	22%	11%
1	Jack Revnew The Woodlands, TX	1842 ± 67	100%	55%	39%	22%	10%
4	Phil Grimaldi Houston, TX	1834 ± 73	100%	48%	32%	17%	8%
16	Ben Whittington The Woodlands, TX	1840 ± 59	83%	42%	29%	16%	7%
3	Wesley Johnson College Station, TX	1833 ± 61	100%	36%	18%	9%	5%
5	Lee Balusek Conroe, TX	1784 ± 57	100%	56%	18%	7%	2%
8	Collier Whitefield San Antonio, TX	1778 ± 69	100%	58%	19%	7%	2%
7	Gilbert Herrera San Antonio, TX	1773 ± 73	100%	55%	17%	4%	2%
12	Ken Kemp Collinsville, TX	1779 ± 69	58%	28%	9%	3%	1%
9	Fred Revnew The Woodlands, TX	1771 ± 65	77%	37%	11%	4%	1%
10	Robert Byers Austin, TX	1770 ± 69	88%	44%	14%	3%	<1%
22	Craig Squires The Woodlands, TX	1761 ± 55	60%	14%	3%	<1%	<1%
15	Jonathon Morales Austin, TX	1737 ± 73	59%	10%	4%	<1%	<1%
21	Ray Ford Austin, TX	1751 ± 59	42%	16%	4%	1%	<1%
11	Keith Shahan Abilene, TX	1729 ± 71	40%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Jonathan Henson Houston, TX	1708 ± 57	41%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
17	Clark McCoy Denton, TX	1721 ± 61	17%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	David Pollock Conroe, TX	1702 ± 59	12%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
19	Chris Geist Arlington, TX	1710 ± 65	8%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
24	Eric Anderson Parts Unknown, TX	1674 ± 65	23%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
23	John Speights Houston, TX	1617 ± 71	12%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

UTAH

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: UTAH
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	Marc Jackson South Jordan, UT	1784 ± 69	91%	74%	48%	35%
1	Nate Smith CO North Ogden, UT	1752 ± 57	80%	50%	25%	16%
2	Dan Newman Sandy, UT	1733 ± 65	82%	50%	32%	14%
7	James Hadden Salt Lake City, UT	1715 ± 61	72%	36%	21%	8%
9	Mark Laird Orem, UT	1731 ± 69	70%	34%	15%	8%
3	Josh Craig Salt Lake City, UT	1709 ± 76	61%	36%	18%	7%
11	michael eccleston Salt Lake City, UT	1693 ± 67	72%	36%	16%	5%
4	Kelly Thomson Salt Lake City, UT	1686 ± 98	73%	20%	7%	3%
14	Bradford Strobell Murray, UT	1673 ± 76	39%	20%	7%	2%
8	Mike Lund Salt Lake City, UT	1661 ± 69	30%	9%	2%	1%
10	Phil Labrum Salt Lake City, UT	1643 ± 63	28%	9%	3%	<1%
16	David Bain Kearns, UT	1646 ± 67	20%	7%	2%	<1%
15	David Youngberg Parts Unknown, Earth	1614 ± 63	18%	5%	1%	<1%
6	Mike Taylor Salt Lake City, UT	1617 ± 63	28%	8%	2%	<1%
13	Mario Franchi Ogden, UT	1604 ± 74	27%	3%	<1%	<1%
12	sean jurewicz Salt Lake City, UT	1608 ± 63	9%	3%	<1%	<1%

VERMONT

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: VERMONT
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
9	Carter Casselman Ottawa, ON	1728 ± 88	73%	53%	43%	34%
3	Bill McHugh Parts Unknown, VT	1658 ± 84	77%	44%	31%	14%
1	Mike Havens South Burlington, VT	1660 ± 69	60%	22%	15%	9%
12	Jamie MacLeish Burlington, VT	1640 ± 114	63%	46%	16%	9%
6	Tim Neilson Charlotte, VT	1635 ± 100	51%	26%	17%	7%
11	Deric Harrington Albany, NY	1630 ± 59	49%	24%	16%	6%
2	Eric Marz Williston, VT	1598 ± 94	81%	49%	18%	5%
8	Beau Blanchard Burlington, VT	1648 ± 92	27%	13%	8%	5%
16	Austin Smith NYC New York, NY	1625 ± 104	40%	11%	6%	3%
7	Preston Francisco Parts Unknown, VT	1583 ± 96	68%	35%	12%	3%
5	Kris LaCross Colchester, VT	1596 ± 82	37%	23%	6%	2%
4	Jody Stahlman Parts Unknown, VT	1559 ± 80	51%	16%	3%	1%
13	Nathan Crosby Montpelier, VT	1556 ± 98	49%	15%	3%	<1%
14	Ben Bonaccio Burlington, VT	1564 ± 98	23%	7%	3%	<1%
10	Chris Thomas PA West Chester, PA	1523 ± 86	32%	11%	2%	<1%
15	Brian Thomas Eagleville, PA	1486 ± 90	19%	6%	<1%	<1%

VIRGINIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: VIRGINIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
4	Bryan Henson Sterling, VA	1845 ± 98	100%	92%	76%	44%	33%
8	Austin Mackert Fairfax, VA	1848 ± 102	100%	87%	73%	42%	32%
6	David Horner Fairfax, VA	1791 ± 118	100%	70%	53%	38%	14%
15	Kevin Kuntz Richmond, VA	1756 ± 104	86%	62%	45%	23%	7%
1	Brian Garbera Richmond, VA	1739 ± 88	100%	77%	20%	6%	3%
11	Edan Grossman Fairfax, VA	1737 ± 90	83%	29%	18%	10%	2%
5	Tim Murren Alexandria, VA	1736 ± 78	100%	67%	16%	4%	2%
3	Rob Pannell Richmond, VA	1712 ± 90	100%	70%	23%	11%	2%
7	Scott Searcy Richmond, VA	1694 ± 71	100%	79%	33%	11%	2%
2	Robert Peters Richmond, VA	1678 ± 63	100%	34%	17%	5%	<1%
9	Dale Geiger Parts Unknown, VA	1712 ± 80	65%	10%	5%	1%	<1%
21	Dan Farrell Parts Unknown, Earth	1689 ± 86	59%	21%	3%	<1%	<1%
20	Raymond Fauber Richmond, VA	1673 ± 80	79%	7%	3%	<1%	<1%
16	Kevin Stone McLean, VA	1658 ± 106	65%	18%	2%	<1%	<1%
19	Matt Larsen Parts Unknown, VA	1647 ± 71	51%	16%	3%	1%	<1%
14	James Allen Fredericksburg, VA	1645 ± 74	49%	15%	2%	<1%	<1%
24	Matt DeWorken Richmond, VA	1662 ± 122	35%	3%	<1%	<1%	<1%
18	Dale Price Parts Unknown, VA	1612 ± 80	14%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Joseph Landas Herndon, VA	1662 ± 57	41%	11%	1%	<1%	<1%
13	Avery Pierce Richmond, VA	1571 ± 108	21%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
17	Clark Fraley Richmond, VA	1606 ± 74	35%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%
22	Laura Fraley Richmond, VA	1609 ± 63	17%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%
10	Allen Foglesong Midlothian, VA	1574 ± 74	43%	8%	1%	<1%	<1%
23	Kevin Soltis Parts Unknown, VA	1597 ± 84	57%	13%	2%	<1%	<1%

WASHINGTON

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: WASHINGTON
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
5	Jarrett Gaddy Seattle, WA	1800 ± 61	100%	88%	60%	33%	18%
15	Cayle George Seattle, WA	1821 ± 88	83%	57%	44%	28%	17%
1	Germain Mariolle Redmond, WA	1800 ± 61	100%	53%	39%	23%	12%
17	Joshua Francis Edmonds, WA	1807 ± 51	82%	43%	33%	20%	11%
6	Sean Irby Seattle, WA	1786 ± 57	100%	73%	38%	20%	10%
14	Eden Stamm White Rock, BC	1790 ± 82	78%	42%	25%	13%	7%
3	Richie Terry Seattle, WA	1775 ± 69	100%	52%	27%	14%	6%
2	Lonnie Langford Seattle, WA	1757 ± 73	100%	37%	22%	10%	4%
4	David Chernicoff Seattle, WA	1745 ± 69	100%	57%	22%	9%	4%
8	Dave Stewart Carnation, WA	1732 ± 55	100%	62%	19%	7%	3%
20	Conrad Rustad Bremerton, WA	1738 ± 59	64%	31%	12%	4%	2%
7	Neal Joslyn Bremerton, WA	1717 ± 63	100%	47%	14%	5%	1%
23	Jon Salzman Seattle, WA	1730 ± 71	51%	27%	9%	3%	1%
10	Michael Rausch Seattle, WA	1726 ± 71	49%	26%	8%	3%	<1%
22	Vincent Sperrazza Bremerton, WA	1711 ± 67	51%	14%	4%	1%	<1%
9	Jaran Jones Seattle, WA	1699 ± 55	53%	22%	5%	1%	<1%
11	Chris Chinn Seattle, WA	1706 ± 59	49%	13%	4%	1%	<1%
24	Andrew McCann Bremerton, WA	1690 ± 53	47%	17%	3%	<1%	<1%
13	John Robinson WA Bothell, Earth	1690 ± 67	36%	12%	3%	<1%	<1%
18	Matthew Roggenkamp Seattle, WA	1697 ± 51	17%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
12	Ashley Weaver Renton, WA	1665 ± 53	68%	10%	3%	<1%	<1%
19	Maka Honig Seattle, WA	1690 ± 71	22%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
16	Matthew Harjo Seattle, WA	1686 ± 61	18%	3%	1%	<1%	<1%
21	Alexander Singleterry Seattle, WA	1606 ± 73	32%	2%	<1%	<1%	<1%

WEST VIRGINIA

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: WEST VIRGINIA
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…			WIN FINALS
			QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
3	Aaron Metz Beckley, WV	1794 ± 141	99%	86%	76%	61%
1	Brian Dye Morgantown, WV	1705 ± 73	92%	78%	59%	21%
2	Pete Hendricks Washington, PA	1665 ± 67	79%	70%	15%	8%
4	Chris Wamsley New Albany, OH	1645 ± 80	84%	61%	24%	5%
6	Andy Pickens Fairmont, WV	1654 ± 67	79%	12%	7%	3%
5	Mark Caravasos Morgantown, WV	1587 ± 86	69%	27%	7%	<1%
9	Mitch Reece Morgantown, WV	1587 ± 110	66%	15%	6%	<1%
15	Kody Elam Morgantown, WV	1556 ± 125	21%	13%	<1%	<1%
10	Brian Pickens Morgantown, WV	1532 ± 90	69%	14%	<1%	<1%
11	Mike Detch Parts Unknown, Earth	1550 ± 141	21%	<1%	<1%	<1%
8	Uriah Summers Parts Unknown, WV	1534 ± 104	34%	5%	1%	<1%
12	Kent Aycoth Fairmont, WV	1522 ± 114	31%	7%	1%	<1%
16	Rick Proctor Grafton, WV	1500 ± 294	8%	2%	<1%	<1%
13	Jaxon Schwab Morgantown, WV	1513 ± 84	16%	5%	<1%	<1%
7	Beth Howell Morgantown, WV	1468 ± 73	31%	3%	<1%	<1%
14	Erica Stewart Morgantown, WV	1484 ± 76	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%

WISCONSIN

2023 IFPA NACS Predictions: WISCONSIN
Seed	Player	MP Rating	Chances of making…				WIN FINALS
			ROUND OF 16	QUARTER- FINALS	SEMI- FINALS	FINALS
1	Luke Nahorniak Lonsdale, MN	1808 ± 49	100%	77%	54%	33%	20%
2	Steven Bowden Palatine, IL	1797 ± 59	100%	78%	58%	34%	19%
5	Jason Werdrick Park Ridge, IL	1798 ± 67	100%	73%	49%	28%	16%
3	Neil Graf Appleton, WI	1790 ± 63	100%	62%	40%	24%	12%
20	Andy Rosa Flint, MI	1767 ± 90	63%	41%	20%	10%	5%
6	David Daluga Milwaukee, WI	1749 ± 73	100%	59%	25%	12%	5%
8	Kassidy Milanowski Appleton, WI	1751 ± 61	100%	59%	22%	10%	5%
14	Nathan Zalewski Stevens Point, WI	1758 ± 55	53%	21%	12%	6%	3%
7	Max Senesac Cudahy, WI	1727 ± 65	100%	62%	22%	8%	3%
9	Tom Graf Appleton, WI	1741 ± 47	73%	35%	13%	5%	2%
4	Erik Thoren De Pere, WI	1717 ± 49	100%	40%	13%	5%	2%
11	Drew Geigel Manitowoc, WI	1735 ± 63	66%	30%	11%	5%	2%
19	Ryan Spindler Oregon, WI	1747 ± 69	47%	17%	9%	4%	2%
16	sheldon olson Sussex, WI	1730 ± 59	65%	18%	8%	3%	1%
12	Eric Strangeway Oshkosh, WI	1728 ± 51	57%	17%	8%	3%	1%
10	Mike Weyenberg Manitowoc, WI	1707 ± 49	67%	30%	8%	3%	<1%
13	Matt McCarty Neenah, WI	1723 ± 43	37%	19%	6%	2%	<1%
15	Erik Rentmeester Green Bay, WI	1710 ± 55	61%	15%	8%	3%	<1%
21	Timothy Enders Madison, WI	1705 ± 80	43%	10%	4%	1%	<1%
18	Michael Reiman Green Bay, WI	1673 ± 59	39%	6%	2%	<1%	<1%
22	Matthew Sommerfeld Minneapolis, Earth	1685 ± 55	34%	11%	3%	<1%	<1%
17	Danny Bronny Beverly Shores, IN	1681 ± 49	35%	5%	2%	<1%	<1%
23	Gerald Morrison Green Bay, WI	1650 ± 45	33%	9%	2%	<1%	<1%
24	Tom Schmidt Neenah, WI	1663 ± 63	27%	7%	1%	<1%	<1%

About

The above predictions are created by leveraging the excellent ratings provided by matchplay.events, which are an implementation of the glicko rating system. For those unfamiliar, ratings are a way of measuring the skill of a player. The ratings are estimated by making predictions about the outcome of each match, observing the outcome, then updating the ratings accordingly.

Importantly, the ratings intrinsically provide the ability to make predictions about a match. For example, if a player with a rating of 1904 plays another player with a rating of 1660, player 1 has an 80.2% chance of winning that game. (\(\frac{1}{1+10^{-(1904-1660)}}=.802\)). Once we know the likelihood of an outcome we can simulate a best-of-7 series by essentially flipping a weighted coin seven times, where the coin is weighted by the probability we previously determined. The player with 4 or more wins, will take the series and advance to the next round. Then we play out the whole bracket in this manner until a winner is crowned. Of course, this only gives us one possible outcome. So we repeat the whole process 10,000 times and summarize the results. Thus the tables above are essentially the percent of times in the 10,000 simulations that a player achieved that level of performance.

Naturally the predictions are only as good as the ratings themselves. While ratings in theory should eventually converge on a players “true” rating, in practice this is rarely true. Players who don’t play in tournaments run by matchplay won’t have as much data. Stronger players that play in a lot of local tournaments will tend to have ratings that are higher than they probably truly are. As a result, you may seem some players have higher/lower odds than seems likely.

Hope you enjoy, and please let me know if anything seems wrong.

This page has no affiliation with the IFPA or matchplay.events. It was made entirely in the spirit of learning and fun.